MacKenzie Gore Vidal Sassoon (2024) - Throw Ur Stuff 4 Strikes!

[Senatorswin]

Well, there's Parker and Irvin, so the knock on his draft acumen might be stale.

Yep, there's hope. Maybe redoing their scouting system is paying off. I also heard an interview with Jake Irvin and he was saying the development system really helped Parker.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Also, while Herz is the product of a trade, his control is a new development since he came to the Nats.

[IanRubbish]

Well, there's Parker and Irvin, so the knock on his draft acumen might be stale.

There's also Sykora, who's a 3rd rounder.  Rizzo can't draft first rounders because he gets man crushes on guys with athletic builds and velocity that have nothing to do with being a good MLB pitcher.  Later rounds are much better where the "toolsy" guys Rizzo loves are gone, and you have to look at actual ability and data.  Moreover, you have Doo at the MLB level who turned wild things like Herz and Parker into everyday MLB starters.  That wouldn't have happened if it was up to Hickey. 

[IanRubbish]

Yep, there's hope. Maybe redoing their scouting system is paying off. I also heard an interview with Jake Irvin and he was saying the development system really helped Parker.

That development system is Doo.  Parker's MLB BB/9 is much lower than it ever was in the minors. 

[Elvir Ovcina]

There's also Sykora, who's a 3rd rounder.  Rizzo can't draft first rounders because he gets man crushes on guys with athletic builds and velocity that have nothing to do with being a good MLB pitcher.  Later rounds are much better where the "toolsy" guys Rizzo loves are gone, and you have to look at actual ability and data.  Moreover, you have Doo at the MLB level who turned wild things like Herz and Parker into everyday MLB starters.  That wouldn't have happened if it was up to Hickey.

Sykora was a classic Rizzo pick.  He's an athletic 6'6" and was all tools and velocity when drafted.  The only reason he was available in the third round was his bonus demand and Texas (I think it was Texas) commitment.  They paid him $2.6 million, which was the slot value for the 32nd pick.  As a result, they drafted min-bonus filler every round after the 6th and didn't sign several of them.

[Senatorswin]

That development system is Doo.  Parker's MLB BB/9 is much lower than it ever was in the minors.

Irvin was talking about the development Parker received at the minor league level.

[Smithian]

Sub-2 ERA over his last six starts. Has an opportunity to get under a 4 ERA for the season in his final start.

For a guy whose durability and health was my big concern, finishing a 32 start season on a tear would be incredibly encouraging that he may someday be a front of the rotation starter on a winning team.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

he's already up to 160.1 IP, 24 more than last year, and will end up with 5 more starts. right now, his ERA is down 0.38 runs, and he's running a 3.64 FIP. Fastball up to 96.1 average over the season. Cut the HR/9 in half, still has a 9+ K/9. Lot to like.

[Elvir Ovcina]

he's already up to 160.1 IP, 24 more than last year, and will end up with 5 more starts. right now, his ERA is down 0.38 runs, and he's running a 3.64 FIP. Fastball up to 96.1 average over the season. Cut the HR/9 in half, still has a 9+ K/9. Lot to like.

Five or six more innings (I think that's what you meant) seems manageable.  30 IP year over year is the usual rule of thumb.

Consistency was always going to be an issue with him given what started out as a complicated delivery.  That's about how it's borne out.  Sometimes he's a #2, sometimes a #4, sometimes a Corbin.  He's sitting right on a 100 ERA+ right now, which is a useful pitcher. 

This is one where you can ignore the FIP.  There are only two things in his FIP between 2022-23-24: he's been bringing walks down consistently over time (normal for pitchers) and he gave up a pile of homers last year. 

FIP puts way, way too much emphasis on homers.  "Fielding independent pitching."  You know what turns doubles into homers and vice versa? Field dimensions and wind.  But if the fence is far enough away to keep a 375-foot line drive in the park, suddenly it's no longer the pitcher's fault, per Fangraphs.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Five or six more innings (I think that's what you meant) seems manageable.  30 IP year over year is the usual rule of thumb.

i meant  5 more starts than last year, or 32 vs 27.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This is one where you can ignore the FIP.  There are only two things in his FIP between 2022-23-24: he's been bringing walks down consistently over time (normal for pitchers) and he gave up a pile of homers last year. 

FIP puts way, way too much emphasis on homers.  "Fielding independent pitching."  You know what turns doubles into homers and vice versa? Field dimensions and wind.  But if the fence is far enough away to keep a 375-foot line drive in the park, suddenly it's no longer the pitcher's fault, per Fangraphs.

well, bringing down BBs and HRs while maintaining Ks is good. The ERA-FIP difference here is primarily due to a ridiculous BABIP (.342), which is a huge spike from the past (.312 & .309). He's playing in the same parks as he played last year, so the effect is not due to what were flies with homer distance now being shots off the wall due to an increase in the distance of the fence. If he keeps the fielding independent progress, and gets a more normal BABIP, then the ERA drops. That's the story FIP tells, and it seems reasonable for Gore.

[Elvir Ovcina]

well, bringing down BBs and HRs while maintaining Ks is good. The ERA-FIP difference here is primarily due to a ridiculous BABIP (.342), which is a huge spike from the past (.312 & .309). He's playing in the same parks as he played last year, so the effect is not due to what were flies with homer distance now being shots off the wall due to an increase in the distance of the fence. If he keeps the fielding independent progress, and gets a more normal BABIP, then the ERA drops. That's the story FIP tells, and it seems reasonable for Gore.

It's the same thing.  Homers turning into doubles through luck and randomness results in two things: increased BABIP and lower FIP.  Same thing in reverse: that ball that looked like it was going off the wall that instead snuck over helps pitcher BABIP while crashing FIP.  Single season sample sizes are small enough that three more homers this year would make Gore's FIP 3.93.

That doesn't account for all of the difference, of course, but when you see this extreme an increase in BABIP coupled with a massive drop in homer rate, you gotta wonder if there are some balls staying in for doubles this year that snuck over last year for reasons that are not really in the pitcher's control. 

[zimm_da_kid]

It's the same thing.  Homers turning into doubles through luck and randomness results in two things: increased BABIP and lower FIP.  Same thing in reverse: that ball that looked like it was going off the wall that instead snuck over helps pitcher BABIP while crashing FIP.  Single season sample sizes are small enough that three more homers this year would make Gore's FIP 3.93.

That doesn't account for all of the difference, of course, but when you see this extreme an increase in BABIP coupled with a massive drop in homer rate, you gotta wonder if there are some balls staying in for doubles this year that snuck over last year for reasons that are not really in the pitcher's control. 

Could also be explained by the average exit velocity off him dropping from 89.4 to 87.8 and the hard hit rate against going from 43.8% to 38.3%

[Smithian]

I’m not going to try to analyze the advanced stats but with a decent final start but Fangraphs likes him more this season than last

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I’m not going to try to analyze the advanced stats but with a decent final start but Fangraphs likes him more this season than last

There's been a year-long discussion of how good a pitcher Gore is now and going forward, so taking a hard look at what he's doing right and what is giving him trouble is a worthwhile discussion for some, and we aim to please all types here.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Could also be explained by the average exit velocity off him dropping from 89.4 to 87.8 and the hard hit rate against going from 43.8% to 38.3%

More intercorrelated stats. 

With pitchers, the null hypothesis is powerful.  It's Dennis Green and "They are who we thought they were!" until I see a second season of something.

[Smithian]

There's been a year-long discussion of how good a pitcher Gore is now and going forward, so taking a hard look at what he's doing right and what is giving him trouble is a worthwhile discussion for some, and we aim to please all types here.

My only point is I’m not smart but the Fangraphs nerds like him

[JCA-CrystalCity]

My only point is I’m not smart but the Fangraphs nerds like him

you are right, of course.

More intercorrelated stats. 

With pitchers, the null hypothesis is powerful.  It's Dennis Green and "They are who we thought they were!" until I see a second season of something.

I am not convinced he's an ace or #2 or better than Gio or even Gio. I'm just saying there's some signs of good stuff underlying his basic "how many runs did he give up today? / on the year?"  As for 2024, he is what he is. 93 runs in 160.1 innings. That's 5+ runs / 9. I hold him accountable for even the unearned runs because all that took contact he gave up.

By the way, it's 72 ER, 93 runs.

[nobleisthyname]

By the way, it's 72 ER, 93 runs.

He seems prone to spiraling, especially if he feels his defense lets him down. That's the impression I've gotten anyway.

[Smithian]

Ended the year with a 3.90 ERA in 166 IP. Half run better ERA than '23 and improved in almost every statistical way.

I think he is someone you can make the playoffs with as a front of the rotation arm and I wouldn't be surprised if he ever snuck into an All Star Game. Imagine if the Nationals ever fielded a major league average defense behind him now he cut his home run rate!

[Natsinpwc]

Ended the year with a 3.90 ERA in 166 IP. Half run better ERA than '23 and improved in almost every statistical way.

I think he is someone you can make the playoffs with as a front of the rotation arm and I wouldn't be surprised if he ever snuck into an All Star Game. Imagine if the Nationals ever fielded a major league average defense behind him now he cut his home run rate!

Rationale take.  People went overboard on him early in the year and then jumped off when he had some bad times.  Part of the normal growth curve for most young pitchers.  Still to find a way to throw more strikes. 

[Senatorswin]

Ended the year with a 3.90 ERA in 166 IP. Half run better ERA than '23 and improved in almost every statistical way.

I think he is someone you can make the playoffs with as a front of the rotation arm and I wouldn't be surprised if he ever snuck into an All Star Game. Imagine if the Nationals ever fielded a major league average defense behind him now he cut his home run rate!

With Crews, Young and Wood in the outfield next year they'll be as good as any. Not sure how any ball will find grass. They say Garcia is above average defense at 2nd now. If House comes up he's supposed to be good at 3rd.

[IanRubbish]

Whether it comes from his slider, or putting more velo on his fastball, which is slower than Herz's, he's got to do something about all the foul balls driving up his pitch count.  He is mid-rotation until then.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Ghost Mears posits that the ERA - FIP differences on the pitching staff were due to poor infield defense, specifically left side of the infield defense impacting LHP. Not so much errors as balls not gotten to and called hits. Also pounds on Ruiz and the non-Gallo 1st basemen.

https://www.talknats.com/2024/10/02/defense-matters-and-you-see-it-in-the-era-fip-comparison/

MacKenzie Gore had a FIP of 3.53, DJ Herz at 3.71, and Mitchell Parker at 3.85. Coincidentally, George Kirby of Seattle had a 3.53 ERA and was ranked 25th in MLB for qualified ERA. If the Nats trio of lefties all had their FIPs as their ERA, they would all be Top-38 pitchers.

So again, improve the defense, and the pitching will improve organically. Add an ace to the top of the rotation, and that is the cherry on top. This could be a very good starting rotation in 2025[
...
So what do you do with Ruiz and Abrams and the first base situation? First base needs a new replacement, and Christian Walker is a free agent and the best fielding first baseman in the NL. Can Juan Soto play a good defensive first base? We don’t know — we just know that he has been practicing at first base defense. Maybe shortstop gets fixed with Abrams getting a position change or other drastic changes to improve his defense. And Ruiz must be coached up. We know Ruiz can do better than what he is showing. Maybe some more rest days will keep him fresher too.

[Smithian]

Whether it comes from his slider, or putting more velo on his fastball, which is slower than Herz's, he's got to do something about all the foul balls driving up his pitch count.  He is mid-rotation until then.

his fastball velocity was up 1.0 MPH this season, which isn’t insignificant. Sitting 96 mph isn’t bad!

Not every #1 starter has to be Max Scherzer or healthy Stephen Strasburg