Author Topic: MacKenzie Gore Vidal Sassoon (2024) - Throw Ur Stuff 4 Strikes!  (Read 2264 times)

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Online nobleisthyname

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He's overachieving by xERA though

That's the only one that's out of line with his ERA. FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all have him right around 3 ERA. His xERA probably explains his higher BABIP though. Still giving up hard contact when hitters do manage to make contact against him.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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He's overachieving by xERA though
TBH, I have a blank on how xERA is calculated. I assume it does not have some sort of constant for non-TTO outcomes (I've understood FIP to use a constant and xFIP to neutralize HRs to league average).

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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What we are seeing from most of the starters and relievers is some sort of trade between hard contact and low contact. Liners and GBs, not flies, which is depressing HR rates. Weather, perhaps, but it's heated up. FWIW, Gore's 3 HR over 27 IP in May is a pretty normal HR rate, so maybe the suppressed HRs are ending. Just ask Robert Garcia or Jacob Barnes.

Online nobleisthyname

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TBH, I have a blank on how xERA is calculated. I assume it does not have some sort of constant for non-TTO outcomes (I've understood FIP to use a constant and xFIP to neutralize HRs to league average).

xERA is just xWOBA converted to ERA:
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-era

So it's heavily influenced by launch angle and exit velocity off the bat.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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xERA is just xWOBA converted to ERA:
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-era

So it's heavily influenced by launch angle and exit velocity off the bat.

Average exit velo - 87, launch angle 13.4%, barrels 7.7%, hard hit 35.5%

League avg exit velo - 88.9, LA 13.1%, barrels 7.7%, hard hit 39%
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=24&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Css

Online nobleisthyname

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Average exit velo - 87, launch angle 13.4%, barrels 7.7%, hard hit 35.5%

League avg exit velo - 88.9, LA 13.1%, barrels 7.7%, hard hit 39%
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=24&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Css

To be fair his xERA is 3.51 vs a league average ERA of 3.95, so it's still above average, just not considered elite like the other ERA estimators are (and his actual ERA).

Offline IanRubbish

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To be fair his xERA is 3.51 vs a league average ERA of 3.95, so it's still above average, just not considered elite like the other ERA estimators are (and his actual ERA).

Nothing elite about tonight's outing.  He's definitely a solid #3 starter though.

Online nobleisthyname

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Nothing elite about tonight's outing.  He's definitely a solid #3 starter though.

First truly bad start of the season. Let's wait another month or so to see if it's just a blip or the beginning of a regression. Based on his total season so far he's definitely better than a solid #3.

Offline IanRubbish

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First truly bad start of the season. Let's wait another month or so to see if it's just a blip or the beginning of a regression. Based on his total season so far he's definitely better than a solid #3.

That's fair, maybe a #2 with the Nats until 2027, after which Boras will likely have him sign somewhere else.

Online Natsinpwc

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One bad start coming off probably his two best starts.  He’s still young.  Let’s see where he is in September.

Offline aspenbubba

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WTF Gore. You are suppose to be our future ace.

Online Slateman

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Was hot out.  Aces dont like heat.

Offline Senatorswin

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Was hot out.  Aces dont like heat.

3 of his last 4 starts have not been good.

Online Slateman

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3 of his last 4 starts have not been good.

It was hot. Aces prefer cool, October nights

Online Natsinpwc

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It was hot. Aces prefer cool, October nights
I’m sure he will get there on his next team.

Online Slateman

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I’m sure he will get there on his next team.

Naw, he will Gio us a couple of times in October

Online nobleisthyname

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So Gore is Gio, Irvin is Zimmermann. Can Parker be Roark? Still need to find the new Stras/Scherzer.

Online Slateman

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So Gore is Gio, Irvin is Zimmermann. Can Parker be Roark? Still need to find the new Stras/Scherzer.
Cavalli could be Stras. Certainly has the injury/unavailablity part down.

Fried has the kind of postseason performance to match Scherzer, so I guess we'll give him 300+ million

Offline Scrapple

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Naw, he will Gio us a couple of times in October
Comparing Gore to Gio is a perfect analogy. Both “five and fly” starter’s that lack drive and wit, but are talented enough to be a #3 starter and nothing more. And that’s okay, I’m please that Rizzo got him in that deal. I’m glad he’s a National.  :shrug:

Offline BigMeech

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Gore has a long ways to go before being the pitcher Gio was, and even my memories of Gio are soured by how often he bombed in the postseason.  If Gore is the next Gio, then place him in the bullpen in the postseason.

Online Natsinpwc

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As usual the board overreacts.  Labeled an ace when he couldn’t do more than five innings. Now he’s terrible after a couple bad starts. LOL. Still young. Let him settle in.

Offline varoadking

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Gore has a long ways to go before being the pitcher Gio was, and even my memories of Gio are soured by how often he bombed in the postseason.  If Gore is the next Gio, then place him in the bullpen in the postseason.

Not to worry...he'll be playing somewhere else the next time the Nats make the postseason...

Online Slateman

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Definitely channeling Gio Gonzalez

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Season started to get away from him over his last 5 starts, dating back to 6/25:

20.2 IP, 8.71 K/9, 6.97 BB/9 ( :schock: ) , 7.84 ERA, 5.56 xFIP. Only thing saving him is he has only given up 1 HR over this stretch. Oddly, while his BABIP is elevated (.328), it's better than his whole-season number.  As SSB says, walks kill.

Prior to 6/21, over 80 IP and 15 starts, 3.26 ERA, 3.32 xFIP (2.85 FIP), 11.03 K/9, 2.81 BB/9 (.371 BABIP), 6 HR.

It's the complete loss of control over the last month that's killing him. Cannot find the strike zone.Was he burned so bad by contact in the spring that he stopped throwing strikes?

I don't think he's as bad as he's been the past month, but yes, the blow up has been awful to watch.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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