Author Topic: The Sunshine Squad 2024 (Read 7471 times)

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #250:** May 13, 2024, 10:29:01 AM »

Quote from: Smithian on May 13, 2024, 10:10:06 AM

I feel vindicated in waving off the Jim Hickey hate

maybe we are inferring too much, but it seems like the Hickey/Doo combo is the change. Hickey is still Hickey, but for this many pitchers to have improved at once, there's likely more than just Hickey finally penetrating with these guys.

Five Banners · « **Reply #251:** May 13, 2024, 12:25:56 PM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on May 13, 2024, 10:29:01 AM

maybe we are inferring too much, but it seems like the Hickey/Doo combo is the change. Hickey is still Hickey, but for this many pitchers to have improved at once, there's likely more than just Hickey finally penetrating with these guys.

And this seems like a good model as far as supplementing the staff so that you got the best of both worlds as far as veteran traditional approaches plus analytics

imref · « **Reply #252:** May 13, 2024, 03:22:18 PM »

up to 19th in the mlb.com power rankings:

Quote

19. Nationals (previously: 22)
Season high: 19 | Season low: 27
You might have missed it, but the Nationals briefly made it over .500 this week. This is the latest they’ve made it over .500 since late in June 2021; they haven't been over .500 even once either of the past two seasons. (It should be noted they still lost 97 games in '21. But the Nats are in a very different spot than they were then.)

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #253:** May 14, 2024, 02:12:17 PM »

looked over on FG for their odds on today's game. Both games have the Nats at between 49% and 50%. I don't recall the last time we were road favorites, but this is close.

varoadking · « **Reply #254:** May 14, 2024, 04:41:06 PM »

Only 123 games to go!

IanRubbish · « **Reply #255:** May 14, 2024, 07:26:15 PM »

they've officially beaten my projection of 19-31

imref · « **Reply #256:** May 14, 2024, 07:45:18 PM »

Quote from: IanRubbish on May 14, 2024, 07:26:15 PM

they've officially beaten my projection of 19-31

just need to keep up the 2019 pace from here on out

IanRubbish · « **Reply #257:** May 20, 2024, 10:50:50 PM »

They seem to have retired the capitol dome W caps when they wear the white home jerseys. Red curly W's look much better.

CoryTheFormerExposFan · « **Reply #258:** May 21, 2024, 04:04:46 PM »

Lane back Friday and that is when we should bring Wood up.

Against RH: Wood LF, Young CF, Thomas RF, Rosario DH, Gallo 1B
Against other RH: Winker LF, Wood CF, Rosario RF, Meneses DH, Gallo 1B
Against LH: Wood LF, Young CF, Thomas RF, Rosario or Winker DH, Meneses 1B

imref · « **Reply #259:** May 21, 2024, 10:08:52 PM »

Rainey didn't allow a run! (grasping at straws here)

varoadking · « **Reply #260:** May 22, 2024, 08:58:14 PM »

It's a good thing MLB doesn't enforce the Spring Training rule that a certain number of Big Leaguers need to play in each game. Nat's would have to forfeit every game...

Dave in Fairfax · « **Reply #261:** May 23, 2024, 08:13:24 AM »

Still a half-game ahead of the Mets, who are 6-14 for May so far.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #262:** May 23, 2024, 08:20:21 AM »

Just three games out of the wild card.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #263:** May 27, 2024, 09:16:43 AM »

I was shocked that the Nats are 5th in pitching fWAR in MLB today.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

It's not just FIP that likes them (3.70). Staff ERA is now 3.97. They've been good at keeping the ball on the ground (8th at 44.4%) and have been able to keep flies from going out (5th in HR/FB at 9.6%). The latter might be a bit lucky, and they face ATL at a launching pad, but they are 10th in balls to center. I'm not sure of the FB/LD/GB breakdown on that, but that's the deepest part of the park. They are kind of middling on pulled balls (12th) but I'd imagine a lot of that is on the ground.

nobleisthyname · « **Reply #264:** May 27, 2024, 02:20:25 PM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on May 27, 2024, 09:16:43 AM

I was shocked that the Nats are 5th in pitching fWAR in MLB today.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

It's not just FIP that likes them (3.70). Staff ERA is now 3.97. They've been good at keeping the ball on the ground (8th at 44.4%) and have been able to keep flies from going out (5th in HR/FB at 9.6%). The latter might be a bit lucky, and they face ATL at a launching pad, but they are 10th in balls to center. I'm not sure of the FB/LD/GB breakdown on that, but that's the deepest part of the park. They are kind of middling on pulled balls (12th) but I'd imagine a lot of that is on the ground.

This is actually them slipping a bit. A couple weeks ago they were second in fWAR behind only the Phillies.

imref · « **Reply #265:** May 29, 2024, 10:25:31 PM »

Take a series from the Braves. Third place. In wildcard contention. Four of five starters dealing.

Nightmare of a season (for the Mets).

varoadking · « **Reply #266:** May 29, 2024, 10:32:31 PM »

Quote from: imref on May 29, 2024, 10:25:31 PM

Take a series from the Braves. Third place. In wildcard contention. Four of five starters dealing.

Nightmare of a season (for the Mets).

We play the Barves again tomorrow...

imref · « **Reply #267:** May 29, 2024, 10:52:55 PM »

Quote from: varoadking on May 29, 2024, 10:32:31 PM

We play the Barves again tomorrow...

I had a premonition.

Still, even splitting with the Braves is a positive.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #268:** May 30, 2024, 08:35:51 AM »

You know, I'm used to going into series, looking at the opposing pitcher, and mentally writing games off. We faced Morton, Fried, and are about to face Reynaldo Lopez, who is absolutely dealing this year. OTOH, what I'm not used to is the opposing team looking at Parker, Irvin, Gore, and Williams and saying "a split would be fine."

Count Walewski · « **Reply #269:** May 30, 2024, 08:44:02 AM »

The Nationals are sitting at an 8.9% playoff chance this morning on Baseball-Reference. Strong 2011 vibes with this team. If you play these 2024 Nats, the question is which .200 hitter is gonna embarrass your team today?

But are the Nats set up for a long-term window of contention? I think there's too many holes and no obvious way of filling most of them.

C - Riley Adams is a career 95 OPS+ hitter and a poor defender. That's OK as an 8th place hitter on an otherwise stacked team.
1B - absolute black hole
2B - I have no idea what to make of Luis Garcia's breakout year. I don't trust him yet. Gavin Dugas is intriguing but far away.
3B - hole
SS - CJ Abrams is the long-term solution
OF - Jacob Young needs to get only slightly better at the plate to hold down CF for years to come. Two elite prospects are about to debut here later this year. Lane Thomas probably is not good enough to re-sign after 2025.

The Nationals would do well to sign a superstar FA at C, 1B, or 3B. It is not at all clear that such a superstar will be available this offseason. Once you get past Juan Soto, the list of 2025 free agents reads like a retirement home roster. Pete Alonso would be the most obvious target. Of course then you actually have to win the bidding war too.

On the pitching side, it's like an entire starting rotation of Luis Garcias. No idea if any of this is sustainable. To get to the next level the Nationals should sign a true #1 starter who could credibly go toe-to-toe with the league's best pitchers in a Game 1. Can they win a bidding war for Corbin Burnes and is he even worth whatever enormous contract he'll earn as the best-available starter in a not especially deep FA class year?

imref · « **Reply #270:** May 30, 2024, 08:54:59 AM »

Millas would be an upgrade at catcher. House hopefully fills the long-term 3B slot at some point in 2025.

1B is the glaring hole, maybe Rizzo trades some pitching / OF depth to fill that in the offseason?

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #271:** May 30, 2024, 08:55:48 AM »

I don't have much of a worry about 1B. It is a position that, if you are willing to spend about $10-$15 million AAV for a 1-2 year contract, you can usually line up a 32 year old vet who still hits and will hit when you sign him.

As for the hole at 3rd, I'm willing to bet the House there's a solution close to the majors in the system. I have no worries about the outfield. As for Gore in particular, I find it interesting that the fantasy sites are moving him into the position of a guy you have to start regardless of the opposition.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #272:** May 30, 2024, 09:10:47 AM »

How to make money. Bet on the Nats when Gore starts. Bet against them when Corbin starts.

Smithian · « **Reply #273:** May 30, 2024, 09:13:05 AM »

I feel like the Nationals are overdue some injuries to pitching. Our luck this year and last has been extraordinary.

The Nationals desperately need to go out and pursue a legit power hitting 1B or DH. I was hoping it would be Senzel, I'm losing hope there. Maybe Winker could be bumped to DH if promotions force him out of OF. Maybe Travis Blankhenhorn deserves another shot in the majors?

I think the Luis Garcia surge is fading. Darren Baker may get his shot this year.

I'll feel better once James Wood or Dylan Crews makes it to the majors and starts hitting. The best of plans go to heck once "missing piece" prospects don't work out.

Senatorswin · « **Reply #274:** May 30, 2024, 09:35:29 AM »

If Williams keeps pitching close to what he has why not keep him and try to resign him. If they go after a top pitcher, chances are that pitcher is going to want 5 years at top dollar. Then you get two good years and three back to a Corbin situation. If Williams stays good see if you can get him for 3 years at reasonable money.