The Sunshine Squad 2024

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I feel like the Nationals are overdue some injuries to pitching. Our luck this year and last has been extraordinary.

The Nationals desperately need to go out and pursue a legit power hitting 1B or DH. I was hoping it would be Senzel, I'm losing hope there. Maybe Winker could be bumped to DH if promotions force him out of OF. Maybe Travis Blankhenhorn deserves another shot in the majors?

I think the Luis Garcia surge is fading. Darren Baker may get his shot this year.

I'll feel better once James Wood or Dylan Crews makes it to the majors and starts hitting. The best of plans go to heck once "missing piece" prospects don't work out.

the bold is kind of a different view of the world than the rest of the post. That's more of a long term concern. I would not want them to make a 1B/DH add this year unless of course we are in change of plans / try for a wild card mode. Senzel / Winker are all short term pieces. Also, short term, Winker is your best DH. An OF of Rosario / Young / Thomas lets you DH Winker.

I think Davey has used more or less the right lineups this series. The lineup against righties has Meneses on the bench to PH, Vargas as the utility plug in, Adams on the bench, and Nunez being Nunez. Against lefties, he's working in Meneses somewhere and dropping a few lefties out of the lineup, typically one of Rosario, Gallo, or Winker. Could see Vargas instead of Garcia. I prefer Rosario in left, where historically he has been ok in the field, but Vargas playing there is an option too.

[IanRubbish]

If they go after a top pitcher, chances are that pitcher is going to want 5 years at top dollar.

With starters throwing fewer innings, and that strategy working for a lot of teams, including this one, the market for large, extended deals has gone incredibly soft.  Even Boras can't pull it off anymore.  The need here is clearly for a bat at 1B/DH.  But there you have to do what the Padres/Phillies/Angels/Yankees/Mets/Dodgers do, and pay someone into their late 30s knowing you'll be lucky to get anything close to what you pay them after 33/34.  I'd prefer more of an Orioles strategy built around home grown prospects, but the Nats don't have anywhere near the needed prospects to do that.  In the end, a mid-shelf FA bat probably makes the most sense.

Sunshine: Pitching is in place, no big contracts (besides Stras, Max, and Corbin deferrals) to deal with, and haven't seen a ton of injuries there either.

[Senatorswin]

With starters throwing fewer innings, and that strategy working for a lot of teams, including this one, the market for large, extended deals has gone incredibly soft.  Even Boras can't pull it off anymore.

Last off-season most starting pitchers didn't get the contracts they anticipated. I guess we'll see if that's a one-off or the new norm. Will even 5 years be tough for a starter to get anymore? I would hope the Nats wouldn't do something like the Aaron Nola contract where the Phillies gave him 7 years last off-season. I think the last 4 years of Nola's contract are going to look much like Corbin's today. That is a Sunshine thought to be sure.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Sunshine in me says let's replace one Corbin with another in the offseason - Patrick for Burnes.

[Senatorswin]

Sunshine in me says let's replace one Corbin with another in the offseason - Patrick for Burnes.

As long as the new Corbin doesn't want more than 5 years. That would be a sunshine situation to sign him away from the O's. The O's fans would be in an uproar.

[welch]

With starters throwing fewer innings...

Seems like five innings is the new quality start, while six is great and seven innings is almost like a complete game used to be. Nats should go as hard for relievers as they have for starters. DFA Rainey to Rochester to see if he can throw hard and with control. Consider developing a minor league starter into a two, or even three inning reliever.

[imref]

3 out of 4 vs Atlanta. Wow.

[Senatorswin]

3 out of 4 vs Atlanta. Wow.

And 2 out of 3 from first place Seattle. Now on to the red hot Guardians.

[Natsinpwc]

Only two out of the wild card. I thought Atlanta was a sure bet for a spot but not so sure now with the pitching issues and Acuna out for the year.  Other than that a bunch of teams hovering around .500 or just below. Too early to get excited but who knows given the mediocrity. 

[IanRubbish]

Only two out of the wild card. I thought Atlanta was a sure bet for a spot but not so sure now with the pitching issues and Acuna out for the year.  Other than that a bunch of teams hovering around .500 or just below. Too early to get excited but who knows given the mediocrity.

Interleague play dominance by the AL has led to just five NL teams having positive run differentials.  Basically a free-for-all for the #5 and #6 spots with at best just the Mets, Marlins, and Rockies not really in it.

[Natsinpwc]

Team is on a 72 win pace which seems about right and probably on the high side of the talent level.  The over reactions to the win streaks and then the losing streaks are just unbelievable.

 How most members of the current team do is irrelevant to the future plans.  Abrams. Ruiz. Garcia. Maybe Young. Gore.  Irvin.  Maybe Parker. Pay attention to those guys and perhaps Lane Thomas. The rest will be gone by 2026.  Hopefully we see Cavalli, Wood and Crews by year end. And Gray still might be a fit. 

[Five Banners]

Team is on a 72 win pace which seems about right and probably on the high side of the talent level.  The over reactions to the win streaks and then the losing streaks are just unbelievable.

The pitching remains the big surprise.

To be fair, if anything might elicit a strong reaction, it’s getting swept by this particular Mets team.

[welch]

- The rotation is pretty good, except, of course, for Corbin. Parker will improve. Cavalli might be an ace. We will see about Gray. Herz, Alvarez, and Lara look good.

- The relievers look better than any set the New Nats have had, and Harvey and Finnegan are under contract for next year. Need one or two long relief pitchers, given how often Corbin collapses and given that going six innings is now treated like a complete game. Maybe that is a spot for one of the promising minor leaguers.

- Infield needs a 1B who can hit, but DH and 1B are not hard to find. Also need 3B, but Senzel seems OK for now, with Trey ready in case of injuries. Nunez needs to go, since he cannot be played. Great to have Vargas, though.

- OF will improve when Wood is promoted...after a long rehab at Fred-burg, Wilmington, and H-burg. Crews should be up with the Nats by late August, giving an OF of Young, Wood, Crews, and Thomas unless Night Train Lane is traded...for prospects better than some of the chumps of '21.

This team is more fun than the 2023 team...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

- The rotation is pretty good, except, of course, for Corbin. Parker will improve. Cavalli might be an ace. We will see about Gray. Herz, Alvarez, and Lara look good.

- The relievers look better than any set the New Nats have had, and Harvey and Finnegan are under contract for next year. Need one or two long relief pitchers, given how often Corbin collapses and given that going six innings is now treated like a complete game. Maybe that is a spot for one of the promising minor leaguers.

- Infield needs a 1B who can hit, but DH and 1B are not hard to find. Also need 3B, but Senzel seems OK for now, with Trey ready in case of injuries. Nunez needs to go, since he cannot be played. Great to have Vargas, though.

- OF will improve when Wood is promoted...after a long rehab at Fred-burg, Wilmington, and H-burg. Crews should be up with the Nats by late August, giving an OF of Young, Wood, Crews, and Thomas unless Night Train Lane is traded...for prospects better than some of the chumps of '21.

This team is more fun than the 2023 team...

Even yesterday, Corbin gave 5 effective innings. I don't think he often needs a long reliever.

FWIW, with 61 games and 326.2 IP, Nats starters have averaged 5.1 IP per start. An effective inning + guy is useful, but it's not like we are calling on guys to come in to start the 4th inning and go 3 innings all that often.

[imref]

biggest issue for this team is a reliable, middle of the order bat. Maybe that's Crews in the next year or so sitting in the #3 slot. But it sure would be nice to pair him with a 1B / DH who can hit 20-30 HRs.

[welch]

Even yesterday, Corbin gave 5 effective innings. I don't think he often needs a long reliever.

FWIW, with 61 games and 326.2 IP, Nats starters have averaged 5.1 IP per start. An effective inning + guy is useful, but it's not like we are calling on guys to come in to start the 4th inning and go 3 innings all that often.

A five-inning start still leaves four innings of relief pitching. These days, that means four single-inning relievers. Aside from wearing down the relief-pitching, it means that each inning is a gamble: does this guy have it today? One clunker can ruin a well-pitched game.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

A five-inning start still leaves four innings of relief pitching. These days, that means four single-inning relievers. Aside from wearing down the relief-pitching, it means that each inning is a gamble: does this guy have it today? One clunker can ruin a well-pitched game.

I don't really disagree. Covering 4 innings is a stretch and it helps to have Weems someone who can give you two. I think Davey's approach is when he has to cover 4 innings, if it is even or close behind, he goes an inning with JBarnes, then does a decision in the 7th whether to go to Law / Garcia or Weems. Really, Law, Garcia, and JBarnes take the 5th from when the starter is pulled. Law is more the multi-inning guy, especially with a narrow lead.

Having and effective 2 inning guy would help. I think that's more important than having a Paulo Espino type who can take the ball in the 4th and finish the game.

[welch]

I don't really disagree. Covering 4 innings is a stretch and it helps to have Weems someone who can give you two. I think Davey's approach is when he has to cover 4 innings, if it is even or close behind, he goes an inning with JBarnes, then does a decision in the 7th whether to go to Law / Garcia or Weems. Really, Law, Garcia, and JBarnes take the 5th from when the starter is pulled. Law is more the multi-inning guy, especially with a narrow lead.

Having and effective 2 inning guy would help. I think that's more important than having a Paulo Espino type who can take the ball in the 4th and finish the game.

I agree, and want to see a three-inning guy in the bullpen. Even if the starter dies in the 4th, a 3-inning guy get the game within range of Garcia-Harvey-Finnegan.

[imref]

4-2 vs Atlanta this season.

[IanRubbish]

The team has a good nickname, and is not foolishly sticking with "Commanders".

[imref]

30-35 matches the 2019 team IIRC.

[Natsinpwc]

They miss Skubal this series.

[tomterp]

30-35 matches the 2019 team IIRC.

 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

31-35 still matches 2019

[Senatorswin]

Dare I say it, 4 behind the Braves.