Author Topic: The Weather (2024)  (Read 7503 times)

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Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #125 on: September 21, 2024, 04:18:05 pm »
Came up to the DMV for a few days. Just beautiful weather. Thanks for arranging it for me!

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #126 on: September 23, 2024, 04:40:02 pm »
Just saw that Florida is going to get hit with another hurricane this week. This one is expected to go from tropical depression to major hurricane in less than 72 hours.

latest spaghetti models:

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #127 on: September 23, 2024, 04:50:40 pm »
looks like most of the maps have a westward movement after it gets over Georgia Friday.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #128 on: September 23, 2024, 05:40:59 pm »
Still early

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #129 on: September 24, 2024, 10:35:05 am »
Models are shifting Helene a bit east and suggesting it could hit Cat 4 or 5. The 11 AM update will be interesting.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #130 on: September 24, 2024, 11:24:04 am »
I'm trying to remember what city Skippy lives in. Tallahassee or Pensacola?


Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #131 on: September 24, 2024, 11:45:15 am »
I'm trying to remember what city Skippy lives in. Tallahassee or Pensacola?


Pensacola IIRC

Offline varoadking

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #132 on: September 24, 2024, 04:44:03 pm »
I'm trying to remember what city Skippy lives in. Tallahassee or Pensacola?

Pensacola...home of the Blue Angels...

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #133 on: September 24, 2024, 05:23:37 pm »
Pensacola...home of the Blue Angels...
And capital of lower Alabama.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #134 on: September 24, 2024, 06:22:44 pm »
Pensacola looks west of the track, but it is a big storm

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #135 on: September 24, 2024, 07:59:30 pm »
Panama City is going to get nailed

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #136 on: September 25, 2024, 06:51:00 am »
Schools already cancelled for Thursday here in central florida.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #137 on: September 25, 2024, 03:14:47 pm »
Already getting wind and rain from the storm.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #138 on: September 25, 2024, 05:11:12 pm »
Landfall as a Cat-4 but looks like it will avoid Tampa. At the speed it's moving it could hit Atlanta as a Cat-1 before stalling out as a depression over eastern Tennessee. The Braves and Mets have already postponed the next two games.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #139 on: September 26, 2024, 10:38:01 am »
slight shift east overnight.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #140 on: October 05, 2024, 09:53:32 am »
Florida about to be hit again. Very similar impact area as Ian but this one is moving west-to-east rather than up the coast. Not sure i've ever seen this kind of track before.


Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #141 on: October 05, 2024, 11:14:30 am »
latest update shows a direct hit on Tampa at 110 MPH (possibly stronger). Models are in general agreement. Plenty of time for things to shift but Tampa will get a major impact.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #142 on: October 05, 2024, 11:44:42 am »
Oh my. Tampa has a rep for storm misses, but those models really cluster there. Also looks like Orlando could get a whack.

Offline varoadking

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #143 on: October 05, 2024, 03:34:47 pm »
Oh my. Tampa has a rep for storm misses, but those models really cluster there. Also looks like Orlando could get a whack.

That path that makes a u-turn and hits western Cuba with 168MPH winds...uh, seems rather unlikely...

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #144 on: October 05, 2024, 04:51:07 pm »

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #145 on: October 06, 2024, 09:41:41 am »
Already getting rain from Milton. Looks like headed to central Florida. The Tampa area could really be in trouble as it took lots of damage from Helene even without a direct hit. 

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #146 on: October 06, 2024, 09:46:29 am »
Already getting rain from Milton. Looks like headed to central Florida. The Tampa area could really be in trouble as it took lots of damage from Helene even without a direct hit. 
was just watching the weather channel, the rain in FL today isn't from Milton. They are saying Monday should be clear before Milton arrives. it is still spinning up NW of Cancun.

It is still heading for a direct hit on the Tampa area, potentially at Cat-4 or even Cat-5. The only saving grace is that it won't be a big storm (size-wise), but it has been more than 100 years since Tampa took a direct hit. I imagine you'll see evacuation orders tomorrow.

They showed videos of St Pete Beach up to Anna Maria Island where debris from Helene lines the streets. That's all going to go airborne.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #147 on: October 06, 2024, 09:49:51 am »
The beaches in Tampa area took a big hit from Helene even without a direct hit. Even if this one turns up the coast those places are still in trouble.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-10-03-florida-hurricane-helene-tampa-bay-pinellas-beaches

All I can see in the forecast here for the next four days is rain. Looks like the kids will be off from school later in the week.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #148 on: October 06, 2024, 10:31:18 am »
Isn't the thing with Tampa Bay that the shore area inside the bay is pretty low and the Bay doesn't drain quickly when water builds up? Also, under some circumstances, a passing storm can suck water out of the bay as it forms the wall of water that is a surge.

One of the weird things about the area (and Florida) is that the highest land points are the gypsum waste stacks at the phosphate fertilizer / acid plants. They are covered with soil, but the gypsum is radioactive.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2024)
« Reply #149 on: October 06, 2024, 11:49:30 am »
Yeah. A big surge into the bay has nowhere to go.

Latest nhs update shifts the track a bit south but still devastating for Tampa. 120mph at landfall with the wind field expanding. It will still be a hurricane when it enters the Atlantic.