The Weather (2024)

[Natsinpwc]

Came up to the DMV for a few days. Just beautiful weather. Thanks for arranging it for me!

[imref]

Just saw that Florida is going to get hit with another hurricane this week. This one is expected to go from tropical depression to major hurricane in less than 72 hours.

latest spaghetti models:

[JCA-CrystalCity]

looks like most of the maps have a westward movement after it gets over Georgia Friday.

[imref]

Still early

[imref]

Models are shifting Helene a bit east and suggesting it could hit Cat 4 or 5. The 11 AM update will be interesting.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm trying to remember what city Skippy lives in. Tallahassee or Pensacola?

[imref]

I'm trying to remember what city Skippy lives in. Tallahassee or Pensacola?

Pensacola IIRC

[varoadking]

I'm trying to remember what city Skippy lives in. Tallahassee or Pensacola?

Pensacola...home of the Blue Angels...

[Natsinpwc]

Pensacola...home of the Blue Angels...

And capital of lower Alabama.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Pensacola looks west of the track, but it is a big storm

[HalfSmokes]

Panama City is going to get nailed

[Natsinpwc]

Schools already cancelled for Thursday here in central florida.

[Natsinpwc]

Already getting wind and rain from the storm.

[imref]

Landfall as a Cat-4 but looks like it will avoid Tampa. At the speed it's moving it could hit Atlanta as a Cat-1 before stalling out as a depression over eastern Tennessee. The Braves and Mets have already postponed the next two games.

[imref]

slight shift east overnight.

[imref]

Florida about to be hit again. Very similar impact area as Ian but this one is moving west-to-east rather than up the coast. Not sure i've ever seen this kind of track before.

[imref]

latest update shows a direct hit on Tampa at 110 MPH (possibly stronger). Models are in general agreement. Plenty of time for things to shift but Tampa will get a major impact.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Oh my. Tampa has a rep for storm misses, but those models really cluster there. Also looks like Orlando could get a whack.

[varoadking]

Oh my. Tampa has a rep for storm misses, but those models really cluster there. Also looks like Orlando could get a whack.

That path that makes a u-turn and hits western Cuba with 168MPH winds...uh, seems rather unlikely...

[imref]

https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1842630704758231505

[Natsinpwc]

Already getting rain from Milton. Looks like headed to central Florida. The Tampa area could really be in trouble as it took lots of damage from Helene even without a direct hit. 

[imref]

Already getting rain from Milton. Looks like headed to central Florida. The Tampa area could really be in trouble as it took lots of damage from Helene even without a direct hit. 

was just watching the weather channel, the rain in FL today isn't from Milton. They are saying Monday should be clear before Milton arrives. it is still spinning up NW of Cancun.

It is still heading for a direct hit on the Tampa area, potentially at Cat-4 or even Cat-5. The only saving grace is that it won't be a big storm (size-wise), but it has been more than 100 years since Tampa took a direct hit. I imagine you'll see evacuation orders tomorrow.

They showed videos of St Pete Beach up to Anna Maria Island where debris from Helene lines the streets. That's all going to go airborne.

[Natsinpwc]

The beaches in Tampa area took a big hit from Helene even without a direct hit. Even if this one turns up the coast those places are still in trouble.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2024-10-03-florida-hurricane-helene-tampa-bay-pinellas-beaches

All I can see in the forecast here for the next four days is rain. Looks like the kids will be off from school later in the week.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Isn't the thing with Tampa Bay that the shore area inside the bay is pretty low and the Bay doesn't drain quickly when water builds up? Also, under some circumstances, a passing storm can suck water out of the bay as it forms the wall of water that is a surge.

One of the weird things about the area (and Florida) is that the highest land points are the gypsum waste stacks at the phosphate fertilizer / acid plants. They are covered with soil, but the gypsum is radioactive.

[imref]

Yeah. A big surge into the bay has nowhere to go.

Latest nhs update shifts the track a bit south but still devastating for Tampa. 120mph at landfall with the wind field expanding. It will still be a hurricane when it enters the Atlantic.