I admit I have yet to check out my theory, but I bet you find that the Nats had a winning record by thin margins in Hernandez, Patterson and Loiaza starts, and big deficit defeats in games by other starters, if you look at first half 2005. You could win 2/3 of games, and be outscored in total under this scenario.
For what it's worth, the Nats played in 60 one-run games in 2005, winning 29. In the games that ended by 1 run, the starters and the Nats record in those games is as follows:
Hernandez: 10-9 (35 starts)
Loaiza: 4-8 (34 starts)
Patterson: 8-3 (31 starts)
Armas: 2-7 (19 starts)
Drese: 4-2 (11 starts)
Ohka: 1-0 (9 starts)
Day: 0-1 (5 starts)
Vargas: 0-1 (4 starts)
The other starters (Carrasco, Kim, Rauch, Halama, Bergmann, Rasner and White) accounted for the remaining 14 starts, with none ending by a one-run difference.
Remember, these are the team won/loss records for those games, not that of the starting pitchers.