Author Topic: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2024  (Read 2180 times)

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Offline Slateman

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Cavalli, Rutledge, Millas, and Young are MLB regulars. Remove them, and the minor league organization is thinner.
Uh .... if we actually got 4 "MLB regulars", out of our farm system  that would be amazing

Offline Slateman

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JCA is right.  There's no curve or special consideration for "about to be an MLB regular" or "these players are going to graduate soon."  It's a simple, hard cutoff separating rookie eligibility and non-eligibility.

Taking into account how the farm system might look in a year or two after a bunch of guys become MLB regulars is something that's left for a year or two down the road, when it actually happens.
Im expecting that Ciolek and Haas will have transforned the farm system in a couple of years

Online Natsinpwc

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Im expecting that Ciolek and Haas will have transforned the farm system in a couple of years
That would be nice. 

Offline Slateman

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That would be nice. 

Rizzo did the thing to counter his weakness: Hire people who made their bones in the draft. Im gonna be optimistic that these moves will greatly improve the draft outcomes.

Now if he could just get someone who understands pitching analytics...

Offline imref

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Rizzo did the thing to counter his weakness: Hire people who made their bones in the draft. Im gonna be optimistic that these moves will greatly improve the draft outcomes.

Now if he could just get someone who understands pitching analytics...
We just hired some guy out of UVA who seems to be pretty smart. :)

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Im expecting that Ciolek and Haas will have transforned the farm system in a couple of years

We’re looking at the #10 pick this year and another top 10 the next year (likely top 5) so they’ll have the draft capital to get to work.

I just wish we would get back some of the tradeable comp picks in some of our deals. 

Offline welch

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We’re looking at the #10 pick this year and another top 10 the next year (likely top 5) so they’ll have the draft capital to get to work.

And the Nats get first pick in second round and onward.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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And the Nats get first pick in second round and onward.
Actually, we have the 5th pick in the 2nd round, #44. Several teams had worse records last year.

High second round picks are valuable. We also saw the Os just trade a competitive balance round pick, something like #34, as part of their Corbin Burnes deal. There's research on the $ value of draft picks going back to 2019. That #34 pick was worth about $9 million, which is the value of the fWAR, discounted, over 10 or 11 seasons (Development time plus potential MLB seasons), less the slot bonus for the pick. The #44 pick is estimated to be worth $6.9 million more than the bonus. Roughly what we're paying Williams for 2024, or the cost of Gallo and Senzel this year.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/

Online Natsinpwc

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I saw that n the Os trade but thought you could not trade draft picks in MLB?

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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I saw that n the Os trade but thought you could not trade draft picks in MLB?
the competitive balance picks can be traded under the new CBA. Note also that the O's got a pick at the end of the 1st round before the competitive balance pick because of Gunnar winning RoTY. Os have #22 and #32, so #34 was nice but not necessary to get a shot at a player around there in the draft.

Online Natsinpwc

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the competitive balance picks can be traded under the new CBA. Note also that the O's got a pick at the end of the 1st round before the competitive balance pick because of Gunnar winning RoTY. Os have #22 and #32, so #34 was nice but not necessary to get a shot at a player around there in the draft.
Thanks for clarifying that. 

Offline Slateman

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We’re looking at the #10 pick this year and another top 10 the next year (likely top 5) so they’ll have the draft capital to get to work.

I just wish we would get back some of the tradeable comp picks in some of our deals. 
Chase Shores, come on down!

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Chase Shores, come on down!
is he a pitcher who needs arm surgery or a toolsy position player with contact issues?

Offline Slateman

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is he a pitcher who needs arm surgery or a toolsy position player with contact issues?
Tall RHP that throws 100 and goes to LSU

Offline Mattionals

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Tall RHP that throws 100 and goes to LSU
Sounds like a Rizzo special.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Tall RHP that throws 100 and goes to LSU
ok, so you are saying they'll think about him, be happy if he falls to them, and when somebody grabs him one slot ahead of the Nats, they will say they really wanted tommy tanks all along when they grab him with the next pick.

Offline Slateman

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ok, so you are saying they'll think about him, be happy if he falls to them, and when somebody grabs him one slot ahead of the Nats, they will say they really wanted tommy tanks all along when they grab him with the next pick.
Tanks will be our pick in 2024. Shores isnt eligible until 2025, when we will have a top 3 pick

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Tanks will be our pick in 2024. Shores isnt eligible until 2025, when we will have a top 3 pick
So was he LSU's big freshman reliever in the CWS? They had Skenes and another junior who went first round.

Offline imref

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Offline nobleisthyname

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Fangraphs has released their updated top 100 prospects list with full writeups for 2024. Nationals have four players, with Wood and Crews both being top-10:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/

6 - James wood
9 - Dylan Crews
57 - Cade Cavalli
89 - Brady House

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Fangraphs has released their updated top 100 prospects list with full writeups for 2024. Nationals have four players, with Wood and Crews both being top-10:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/

6 - James wood
9 - Dylan Crews
57 - Cade Cavalli
89 - Brady House
interesting that they stick with Wood when others have knocked him down. We should post the detailed blurbs in each player's "Follow the Prospects" thread.

I think the Cavalli ranking is right. TJS is not so damaging that a guy who was significantly higher and who has performed in the upper minors should drop out of the top 100. As for House, that's up from about #111 last year, but is lower than other public rankings.