Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2024

[JCA-CrystalCity]

In his pre-trade deadline update to the Fangraphs top 100 board, Wood is #1 in MLB (65 FV), Crews #7(60 FV), House #69 (niiiiiice!) (50 FV), and Cavalli #100 (50 FV).

For some strange reason, he didn't slot in the draft picks and renumber the Nats like he did for other teams. For example, he slots montgomery as #5 in the Red Sox system. Nevertheless, he does give FVs on the draftees, so by sorting by FV, you can figure out roughly where they fall. Highest is King, who he give a 45+ FV and slots behind #4 Cavalli and ahead of #5 Hurtado. Lomavita is given a 40+, Bazzell a 40, and Dickerson a 35+. Wallace is a 40+, ranked #11 (but that does not include King and is not an indication relative to Lomavita).

After graduations, the Nats are up to 37 players on his list of top prospects (35+ and higher). Nunez is the only graduate from our top #32 (recall Young missed the list. It's odd, but Parker is on the prospect but not the graduate list even though he's thrown 95 innings.

[imref]

BBA has updated it's top-30, anyone got a sub? https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mlb-top-prospects-2024/

Folks on twitter are complaining that Sykora is ranked below Rutledge.

[imref]

Fangraphs now ranks the Nats farm system at #5 overall with 3 top-100 prospects. (Wood, Crews, House). Cavalli is ranked at 101.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-at-the-2024-deadline/

Tena, Clemmey, and Wallace come in at 40+. 12th, 18th, and 23rd among prospects traded.
Ramirez is #39 at a 40.
Chaparro just a 35 and a depth option for upper minors.

[nobleisthyname]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-at-the-2024-deadline/

Tena, Clemmey, and Wallace come in at 40+. 12th, 18th, and 23rd among prospects traded.
Ramirez is #39 at a 40.
Chaparro just a 35 and a depth option for upper minors.

Seems to be much higher on Tena than anyone else. He's not even ranked in MLB's top 30 team prospects.

[imref]

5th: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/40733088/2024-mlb-prospect-rankings-update-farm-systems-top-30-teams-draft-trade-deadline

Current top prospect: James Wood, LF

Preseason ranking: 16th, $203 million

What has happened since: The Nats appear to be wrapping up their current rebuild as their farm system value is cresting with breakouts from lower-level prospects, including Jarlin Susana coming at the same time their top young players are in the upper minors (Dylan Crews, Brady House, Cade Cavalli), arriving at the big leagues (Wood) or turning the corner in the majors (C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, DJ Herz, Mitchell Parker).

I like what the Nationals did in the draft, adding Seaver King, Caleb Lomavita and Luke Dickerson, and in their deadline deals that landed them prospects Alex Clemmey, Rafael Ramirez Jr. and Cayden Wallace, along with the pick that became Lomavita days later.

With Wood and Herz close to graduating and Parker breaking through then graduating this year, this could be as high as the system ranks for a while as the franchise moves to the key next step of deploying young talent in the big leagues.

[imref]

BBA now ranks the Nats' farm system at #4
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-mlb-farm-system-midseason-talent-rankings/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

BBA now ranks the Nats' farm system at #4
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-mlb-farm-system-midseason-talent-rankings/

as soon as Wood graduates, we'll drop a bit.

[DCsOwn]

as soon as Wood graduates, we'll drop a bit.

True, but we're also primed for another potential top 5 pick and large draft pool as well. The asset accretion portion of the rebuild should be about over. It's time to spend in FA and push to be a truly competitive club. Let's hope that Lerner recognizes that fact or sells the team expeditiously.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't subscribe to BBA, but I'm curious about whether Brad Lord is now on their radar. I think their rep is to be gaga over tools, so I wonder where they have him.

What feels different about this stocking of the minors is how much of it is driven by lower picks as well as assets acquired through trade. IIRC, the BBA projections about future lineups in the aught's and early teens were mostly driven by high picks, so guys like Chris Marrero would show up projected as the 1B. This lineup and system feels different.

[imref]

Mlb pipeline top-30 is updated with crews, house, and sykora leading the charge. Susana is fourth and King fifth.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/nationals

Our top three are in the top 100:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects

And a write up:

https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/nationals-top-30-prospects-2024-midseason-update?t=nationals-pipeline-coverage

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The top 30 write up is by Camerato. One thing I thought that was interesting was the ranking of best tools in the organization, especially for pitchers. It's by pitch, so best fastball, curve, etc...

For fastball, there were 5 with 70 ranks - Susana, Clemmey, Cavalli, Sykora, and Brzykcy. That's a lot of guys with really good fastballs.

Curveball Clemmey and Cavalli are 60s, sliders Susana and Lara are 60s as well.

OTOH, the best control are a pair of 55: Lord and Bennett. We'll see Bennett's control when he's back after his surgery.

[imref]

ESPN top 100 rating is updated https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/40846519/2024-midseason-top-100-mlb-prospects-rankings-update-kiley-mcdaniel

Wood #2 (author notes he's about to graduate, but he's already graduated)
Crews #12
House #52
Susana #61

Another analyst sleeping on Sykora.

[imref]

10th:
https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2024-in-season

10. Washington Nationals
2024 preseason rank: 12
2023 midseason rank: 8
2023 preseason rank: 10
2022 midseason rank: 15

Top 100 prospects: Dylan Crews, OF (No. 3); Brady House, 3B (No. 69); Travis Sykora, RHP (No. 100)

The Nats would have slid a few spots higher had James Wood not graduated over the weekend. (They’ll gladly take his production in the Majors, thanks.) In his stead, Crews and House remain Top 100 mainstays, and the former, who is in the midst of a Triple-A surge in his first full season, could see D.C. before the year is out as well. Washington has also seen breakouts on the mound from 2023 third-rounder Sykora and fireballer Jarlin Susana, and it built the system out more through trades (Alex Clemmey) and the Draft (Seaver King, Luke Dickerson, Caleb Lomavita, Kevin Bazzell). Contention should be right around the corner in the capital if the Nats supplement these homegrown contributors with other talent soon.

[nobleisthyname]

With Wood's graduation from prospect status the Nats fall from 5th to 13th in Fangraphs' farm system rankings.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings

[imref]

Sam Dystra published his top 8 storylines from A/A+

Travis Sykora and Jarlin Susana: The Nationals’ farm has been defined by its bats with Crews and James Wood atop the Washington Top 30 all summer. But the next generation of top Nats prospects looks like it's coming on the mound. Sykora leads the Minor Leagues (min. 80 IP) with a 39.9 percent strikeout rate, 0.83 WHIP and .155 average-against for Single-A Fredericksburg, while Susana -- he of the 103 mph fastball -- has done a significantly better job of limiting walks (down to 8.8 percent BB rate at High-A) and generating swing-and-miss with his killer stuff (including a plus slider). Both hurlers are only 20 with some development runway ahead, but their 2024 gains have given the Nats a more well-rounded system.

[imref]

BBA has updated its top-100 due to graduations:

No. 4. Dylan Crews
No. 82. Brady House
No. 89. Jarlin Susana
No. 99. Travis Sykora

[imref]

MLB Pipeline ranks the Nats pitching prospects as the #5 group in the MLB:

https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/top-organizations-based-on-pitching-talent-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

"You’d be forgiven for seeing the arrivals of James Wood and Dylan Crews and thinking the Nats have a bat-heavy organization. But the breakouts of 20-year-old hurlers Travis Sykora (MLB No. 94) and Jarlin Susana (No. 96) at the A-ball levels have given the organization a more well-rounded look with their high-octane stuff (Sykora’s three-pitch mix, Susana’s elite fastball velocity and killer slider). Left-hander Alex Clemmey was a hard-throwing pickup with upside at the Trade Deadline, and Cade Cavalli still has mid-rotation potential despite a rough Tommy John rehab process. A return to form from Andry Lara gives Washington more hope of a future rotation filled with internally developed arms."

[JCA-CrystalCity]

MLB Pipeline ranks the Nats pitching prospects as the #5 group in the MLB:

https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/top-organizations-based-on-pitching-talent-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

no mention of Lord, either.