Author Topic: Approach to the trade deadline  (Read 13720 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #150: June 26, 2023, 10:34:30 AM »

Williams is the type of pitcher you leave off your post-season roster.
I would think he's the type of starter you shift to the bullpen. He had a lot of success in the pen last year for the Mets. 51 innings, 3.03 FIP. 9.71 K/9 with only 2.65 BB/9. He wants to start, which is why he signed here, but he's probably a better reliever than starter. I could see a team trading for him to strengthen the back of the rotation with a plan to move him to the pen if the team makes the playoffs. PWC mentioned the Phillies as being a fit.

Offline imref

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #151: June 26, 2023, 10:59:17 AM »
Quote
@jonmorosi
The #Nats are popular sellers because of bullpen arms like Kyle Finnegan, but one rival team official told me Ildemaro Vargas could add value for a postseason team.

Vargas, a switch hitter, has started games at 4 different positions this year and has a 102 OPS+.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #152: June 26, 2023, 11:40:28 PM »
Instead of getting prospects, rumor is that Mini Me wants to dump Corbin's contract in exchange for the other team getting Finnegan and another bullpen arm.  That's not what a rebuilding team would do.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #153: June 27, 2023, 08:37:27 AM »
Instead of getting prospects, rumor is that Mini Me wants to dump Corbin's contract in exchange for the other team getting Finnegan and another bullpen arm.  That's not what a rebuilding team would do.
interesting. I don't think Finnegan and Harvey together would make Corbin's contract acceptable for another team. That said, I've also heard, second-hand, that they are exploring Corbin deals from someone who I think might know.

Even after last night, I'd be surprised if anyone moved for Corbin rather than Williams. They have comparable defense-independent numbers for the year, with Williams having the lower ERA by a run. Even if drop Corbin's first two starts, his numbers aren't better than Williams. Corbin gives you about a half an inning per start more than Williams. Neither are good, but Williiams K%-BB% is better than Corbin's too. They both are homer prone but Williams gives up a few more flies so more chances.

The only argument for a team being more interested in Corbin than Williams is he's started deeper into the season recently than Williams, so if you are looking for a back end starter, then he's more likely to be taking turns and giving you innings in August and September. Like I said, short of tossing in Finnegan, Hassell, and another reliever, I can't imagine a team preferring that contract.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #154: June 27, 2023, 08:50:20 AM »
interesting. I don't think Finnegan and Harvey together would make Corbin's contract acceptable for another team. That said, I've also heard, second-hand, that they are exploring Corbin deals from someone who I think might know.

Even after last night, I'd be surprised if anyone moved for Corbin rather than Williams. They have comparable defense-independent numbers for the year, with Williams having the lower ERA by a run. Even if drop Corbin's first two starts, his numbers aren't better than Williams. Corbin gives you about a half an inning per start more than Williams. Neither are good, but Williiams K%-BB% is better than Corbin's too. They both are homer prone but Williams gives up a few more flies so more chances.

The only argument for a team being more interested in Corbin than Williams is he's started deeper into the season recently than Williams, so if you are looking for a back end starter, then he's more likely to be taking turns and giving you innings in August and September. Like I said, short of tossing in Finnegan, Hassell, and another reliever, I can't imagine a team preferring that contract.


I have no insider knowledge, nor have I read any tweets or news columns (BTW, I jettisoned Twitter and Reddit and it's good for my well being) but I would think current Nats ownership would love to just dump whatever they can of the last year and a half of Corbin's contract to lower the dead money any new ownership group would inherit. I'm interested to see how long a deal takes now that the first TV rights fee lawsuit has been ended.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #155: June 27, 2023, 09:41:54 AM »
That would be such a LAC move. Squeeze a few more bucks out of a sale while hurting the team in the long run.

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #156: June 27, 2023, 04:43:48 PM »
Instead of getting prospects, rumor is that Mini Me wants to dump Corbin's contract in exchange for the other team getting Finnegan and another bullpen arm.  That's not what a rebuilding team would do.

They got to free up Soto money

Offline Slateman

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #157: June 27, 2023, 04:48:28 PM »
They got to free up Soto money
No team is taking on Corbin's deferred money for Finnegan. Corbin's contract will be up by the time Soto is a free agent

Online blue911

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #158: June 27, 2023, 04:53:53 PM »
No team is taking on Corbin's deferred money for Finnegan. Corbin's contract will be up by the time Soto is a free agent

The dumbest thing ever would be to tie Corbin into a trade.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #159: June 27, 2023, 04:57:55 PM »
The dumbest thing ever would be to tie Corbin into a trade.
Honestly, if it gets the Lerners to sell faster, its worth it.

For all the talent we have accumulated, the Lerners arent gonna spend jack crap on free agents

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #160: June 27, 2023, 05:21:38 PM »
Honestly, if it gets the Lerners to sell faster, its worth it.

Agreed

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #161: June 27, 2023, 05:26:19 PM »
The dumbest thing ever would be to tie Corbin into a trade.
the only way you move him with that contract is if you throw in Hassell plus Finnegan plus more.  Really, why would anyone want to take on Corbin at that price when there's a ton of mediocre innings eaters that don't set you back $40+ million?

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #162: June 27, 2023, 08:13:11 PM »
the only way you move him with that contract is if you throw in Hassell plus Finnegan plus more.  Really, why would anyone want to take on Corbin at that price when there's a ton of mediocre innings eaters that don't set you back $40+ million?


Yea, that is the rub on Corbin. Even with him being better this season, he still isn't worth what is owed. I think he has value if ownership just ate say, 30 Million, and since they won't, you might as well just keep him. Unless Teddy Leonsis told Markie Mark that he wants Corbin off the team and to get rid of as much of his contract as possible, just hang onto Corbin.

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #163: June 27, 2023, 08:26:20 PM »
I’m starting to suspect I may have been wrong about Corbin after the 2019 season

Offline Slateman

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #164: June 27, 2023, 08:49:13 PM »
Still think he should be moved to the pen

Offline GataNats

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #165: June 28, 2023, 03:53:59 AM »
Corbin is much better than Williams.  He has no stuff

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #166: June 28, 2023, 09:00:36 AM »
Corbin is much better than Williams.  He has no stuff
On 6/30, Corbin will be owed $12 million for this year and $35 million for next. As of that date, Williams will be owed $3 million for this year and $7 million for next. A difference of $37 million over two years.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/

That $37 million is a lot more than the value of the difference between Williams's and Corbin's performance. I'd say that even if the Nats were to kick in $25 million into a deal, I'd still rather have Williams. Their performance isn't that different.

Offline welch

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #167: June 28, 2023, 10:14:50 AM »
On 6/30, Corbin will be owed $12 million for this year and $35 million for next. As of that date, Williams will be owed $3 million for this year and $7 million for next. A difference of $37 million over two years.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/

That $37 million is a lot more than the value of the difference between Williams's and Corbin's performance. I'd say that even if the Nats were to kick in $25 million into a deal, I'd still rather have Williams. Their performance isn't that different.

Corbin for Max? No, the Mets are not quite ready to give up on this season, but Max is owed $45 million...just to compare the 2024 salaries. Max is said to be willing to waive his no-trade clause to go to a competitor. Of course, the Nats are not that in 2023. But imagine Max, a deteriorating Max, pitching his final season in Washington.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #168: June 28, 2023, 10:17:37 AM »
Why on earth would we want Max?

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #169: June 28, 2023, 10:34:05 AM »
Why on earth would we want Max?


I believe one day he'll sign a one day contract with us to retire as a Nat.

Offline welch

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #170: June 28, 2023, 11:38:34 AM »
Why on earth would we want Max?

So Max retires as a National. That would be a sentimental send-off from Nats fans. Certain that he would refuse this season, but I mentioned it to show how bad the Corbin contract will be next season. Only $10 million less than Max will be owed by the Metsies, who are stumpling along in the true Metsie way.

Offline imref

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #171: June 28, 2023, 11:39:56 AM »
Why on earth would we want Max?

more appropriate: Why on earth would Max want to come here?

The reporting is that Max is willing to waive his NTC to go to a competitor. Not sure who would fit the bill there other than a return to the Dodgers, or maybe the Angels?

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #172: June 28, 2023, 11:50:24 AM »
Furthermore why would the Mets want to trade for Corbin?  They will have other options to get prospects and not take on a bad contract.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #173: June 28, 2023, 12:38:44 PM »
I think at 27 Lane certainly could still have some prime years that overlap with our next contending window, however considering how our top prospects reside in the OF, and how it’s not that difficult to find OFs in free agency if needed down the road, I’d “sell high” right now if we could get a legit pitching prospect or a 3B/MI prospect.  Sell “high” being the operative word, because I wouldn’t sell him just to sell.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Approach to the trade deadline
« Reply #174: June 30, 2023, 02:44:21 PM »
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Trade Rumors!

The Washington Nationals have put Jeimer Candelario on the trade block according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network.
Candelario is hitting .263/.338/.471 with 10 home runs and four stolen bases this year while playing a decent third base. With a number of contenders in need of infield boosting, he might be an attractive option for teams not wanting to spend a ton on the pending free agent.
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/roto-riteup-june-30-2023/