2023 MLB Draft

[Slateman]

To me, drafting Skenes indicates your rebuild is over and you intend to compete in 2024. Theres no reason to waste his arm in the minors. If we were in a playoff race, I'd be pushing to put him in the pen this September

[imref]

Skenes will put butts in seats if that matters.

[welch]

The next Stephen Strasburg? Sure. Or the best player in the draft? Yes. Skenes or Crews, the Nats can't lose. But the Pirates would be foolish to skip them both. Even under the "draft cheap and save money for later rounds" strategy, Pittsburgh has the biggest bonus pool. They can sign as many players as they care to draft.

[Natsinpwc]

The next Stephen Strasburg? Sure. Or the best player in the draft? Yes. Skenes or Crews, the Nats can't lose. But the Pirates would be foolish to skip them both. Even under the "draft cheap and save money for later rounds" strategy, Pittsburgh has the biggest bonus pool. They can sign as many players as they care to draft.

But if they sign a cheaper first pick they can use that money to lure high school guys in later rounds who are due to go to college.

[imref]

Good take from Todd Boss at NationalsArmRace:

http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=18127

Rumors: Dylan Crews has given an 8-figure bonus demand, is advised by Boras, and has told Pittsburgh he doesn’t want to play for them.

Well, I can’t blame him if any of these rumors are true. Crew could very well be pushing for an 8 figure bonus, and its not that much of a reach given that slot for 1-1 this year is $9,721,000. But, we also know that Pittsburgh has in year’s past gone the “under-slot 1-1 deal” route to spread more money around in later rounds. So, there’s definitely a possibility that they could go to a player like Wyatt Langford, who most people think goes 3rd overall (slot value $8,341,700) and say to him, “hey, we’ll give you $8.5M to sign right now) and he’d be ecstatic to take it, and Pittsburg nets more than $1.2M of excess bonus money,

This is essentially what Keith Law think may be going on in his latest mock.

Is Crews being overly demanding? Could he be calling the Nats and say I want $10M and the Nats (who have 1-2 overall for slot value of $8,998,500) would say, “ok we’ll find $1M elsewhere” and Pittsburgh just says knock yourself out? Maybe. But if Crews is doing this, its a dangerous game. If he falls too far down the road with a $10M signing bonus demand, he’ll quickly find himself priced out of the market altogether. The slot for #5 overall, for example, is just $7.1M, and there’s just no way a team like Minnesota blows $3M of surplus dollars on Crews when they can land one of the prep kids Clark or Jenkins there for $3M less. And Crews would be an idiot to go back to school; his value is maxed out right now; there’s no way he gets more next year; you can only go down from 1-1. I’d also point this out; this isn’t the 2010s when you could shop around for bonus dollars with no pools defined; teams have slots, they have penalties for going over, and I don’t really believe any rumor that an agent would advise a player to give up $9.7m in search of $10m.

What if both Crews and Skenes are still on the board?

Well, if that’s the case, and the Nats havn’t done some switcheroo promise to Crews, I think (as Law does) that they’ll sign Skenes to slot instead of blowing an extra $1M to give Crews his $10m demand. I mean, you can’t go wrong, but the Nats love the famous guy, Skenes is certainly famous, he’s right in line with our Strasburg pick, and he fits a pretty big need.

[Natsinpwc]

I like Crews but that is a bad sign and with Boras you will only have him until free agency. 

[nobleisthyname]

I like Crews but that is a bad sign and with Boras you will only have him until free agency.

Yep, being a Boras client is definitely a negative.

[Slateman]

I like Crews but that is a bad sign and with Boras you will only have him until free agency. 

Maybe but we shouldnt be keeping Skenes long term either

[Natsinpwc]

Maybe but we shouldnt be keeping Skenes long term either

I probably would take Langford.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I probably would take Langford.

sounds like in the Law scenario you won't have that choice. the Law scenario is exactly the same thing Longenhagen suspected when he wrote up his mock draft but he felt he didn't have enough to move off of Crews. In his view, he thought the Clark rumors were a red herring so to keep the price on Langford down.

[imref]

here's my mock:
1. Clark to the Pirates
2. Skenes to the Nats
3. Langford to Detroit
4. Crews to the Rangers
5. Teel to the Twins

[imref]

Law released his final mock: Langford, Skenes, Crews, Clark, Gonzales, Taylor, Jenkins

https://theathletic.com/4671798/2023/07/07/mlb-mock-draft-langford-pirates-crews-clark/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

dougherty from the Post with a Nats-oriented discussion of the draft
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/07/08/washington-nationals-mlb-draft-analysis/

Article mentions Kiley McDaniel is now saying Langford 1/1. That's Law and McDaniel saying it, and Longenhagen close to saying it and providing reasons. After going through the Langford/ Skenes / Crews dynamic and reports, he goes on to talk about further about later rounds

Predicting who Washington will take second is fruitless. Teams are tight-lipped about their draft plans. So much will be dictated by what Pittsburgh does. But General Manager Mike Rizzo is never shy about how much he loves starting pitching, making it easy to link the Nationals and Skenes (should he be available). Before the past two drafts, Washington took a pitcher with seven of their past eight first-round picks, many of them tall college righties. Two of those righties, Cade Cavalli and Jackson Rutledge, could be part of the major league rotation at some point in 2024. And going back further, Rizzo’s first big draft splash was Strasburg, whom he took with the top selection in 2009.

Yet on the other hand, Washington has had a lot of trouble drafting and developing hitters, meaning either Crews or Langford would present a golden opportunity: Adding a very polished one to their improving system.

Notes the BA article ranking the Nats as the worst team drafting hitters since the slot system was put in in 2012. Then says the second round pick may be the key to a successful draft, noting that Wood and Bennett are second rounders. makes the obvious point that depth and starters can be found any round.

“Where we’re at right now, having that second pick is big for us, it really is,” Manager Dave Martinez said this week. “But we were just talking today: Whoever picks first, we’re going to pick accordingly. But the biggest thing is the next pick. What can we get with the next pick? Cause that’s going to help us out tremendously, as well.”

...

[KV]

So, assuming we pick Skenes, what do you do with him this year?  Send him to F’burg and give him a couple of 3-4 inning starts before you shut him down?  Or just send him to Fla and stash him there until Spring?

[welch]

So, assuming we pick Skenes, what do you do with him this year?  Send him to F’burg and give him a couple of 3-4 inning starts before you shut him down?  Or just send him to Fla and stash him there until Spring?

I think the Nats would send him to Florida. Let him perfect his change-up, which scouts say is already pretty good,  and maybe develop another secondary pitch. Next season, start him at Harrisburg and then move him to Rochester at the beginning of June.

[welch]

On Dylan Crews as a person:

The little girl did not speak. Did not say “Mommy” or “Daddy” or “I love you.”

Aubrey White was 7 years old and born with non-verbal autism. Her parents, Crystal and Robbie, had consulted with many experts who could offer no assurances that they would ever hear her sweet voice.

So imagine their shock when, one day in 2021, Aubrey looked at a player on the TV screen during a Louisiana State baseball broadcast and opened her mouth.

“Dylan Crews!” Aubrey said. “Dylan Crews!”

Get to know Dylan Crews | From vacant warehouse to LSU to ... No. 1 pick?
As LSU alums living in the Baton Rouge, La., area, Robbie, who pitched for LSU Eunice, and Crystal had a vested interest in what looked to be a loaded LSU baseball team. But they had no idea that a highly touted freshman outfielder named Dylan Crews would suddenly unlock something inside their daughter.

Sitting nearby on the couch, they silently turned their heads and met eyes.

“We looked at each other,” said Robbie, “like we had seen a ghost.”

Not wanting to disrupt this baseball-aided breakthrough in their child’s development, Crystal slyly retrieved her cell phone and recorded video of the magic moment. Later, she posted it privately to her friends on social media. Somehow, the video made its way to Crews himself, and thus begins a heartwarming story of friendship, generosity and hope.

https://www.mlb.com/news/dylan-crews-autistic-young-fan-share-tight-bond?t=mlb-draft-coverage

[Slateman]

So, assuming we pick Skenes, what do you do with him this year?  Send him to F’burg and give him a couple of 3-4 inning starts before you shut him down?  Or just send him to Fla and stash him there until Spring?

Probably pitches in the AFL, like they did with Stras

[JCA-CrystalCity]

On Dylan Crews as a person:

https://www.mlb.com/news/dylan-crews-autistic-young-fan-share-tight-bond?t=mlb-draft-coverage

got really dusty around the condo just now.

[welch]

One day more, plus an hour.

[RD]

Jake Bennett went 117 innings last year in college, and the Nats rested him in pro ball. I'd imagine the same thing happens with Skenes, who hit 122ip.

[stoneghost28]

I want Skenes the most in this draft, Strasburg was a better collegiate pitcher. I don’t even think this is debatable…

Me as well, I'd prefer to get a guy who can have a longer career and safer career going forward, pitchers carry so much freaking risk, but Skenes profile is so ridiculous its hard to pass up, especially considering the bulk of the talent we have gotten back in the build so far tends towards hitting. We've got what, 2 pitchers that look likely to stick in the majors as starters. That's great, but not much depth. It would be great to parlay one of these lost seasons into a stud pitcher for the next 7+ years.

Otoh, I find it alarming that he went from not even a top 5 prospect eight months ago, to the best pitcher anyone has seen in more than a decade w/one season. That makes me a little skeptical. I would have preferred him having multiple college seasons of super elite play, but I guess that's getting a touch greedy. I like that Crews has a multi-year track record in his profile.

[stoneghost28]

Where was Skenes projected to go when the college year started. I don’t think it was that high.

I didn't see him in the mock drafts I was looking at last year. Distincly recall Dollander being the projected guy for us after the lottery was wrapped and we got 1.02. Crews was 1.0, Skenes was, I have no idea, but he wasn't even top 10 in any of the mocks I saw, which is why it bugs me, a little bit. I always like a multiyear profile of high level production for college guys. Skenes is basically "this year" in terms of mega elite production. That's it.

[stoneghost28]

Here is one from last September. Skenes was 14. I think he moved up based on what scouts saw on fall preseason workouts. I think the point is scouts for any team would have been looking at him when he was at Air Force. No one here even knew his name last year at this time.

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022-mlb-mock-draft-n78w7-st9r4-wa35p-2n5ls-8addg

Thanks for this.

[stoneghost28]

In the end I am pretty sure that Dylan Crews will be able to swing a bat 15 years from now about the same as he does now.  Not sure of that for any pitcher.  I mean Strasburg was great when he pitched but he also missed fairly significant amounts of time over his tenure with the Nats even before the recent problems.  His injuries are certainly pitching related.

Yep, I'm so bloody torn.

On the one hand: We could use more elite pitching talent. We might have one guy we can point to, and a middle rotation guy in Gray. That, aint great.

On the other hand: pitchers consistently get injured, and are a huge scary as ---- risk to invest in in FA (it always stunned me that we let the more conservative bets (hitters) walk, and paid the much higher risk options (pitchers). Always struck me as so odd. But anyway, Crews represents a high floor high ceiling bet that Skenes simply isn't in terms of injury risk.

So which way do you go, and yes, at this point, we really need to be concerned when any of these guys are Boras clients because unless you're willing to break the market, boras clients are always going to seek free agency eventually and leave (unless you pay way above market early, maybe).

Wonder if 1 or both are boras guys?

[Natsinpwc]

Yep, I'm so bloody torn.

On the one hand: We could use more elite pitching talent. We might have one guy we can point to, and a middle rotation guy in Gray. That, aint great.

On the other hand: pitchers consistently get injured, and are a huge scary as ---- risk to invest in in FA (it always stunned me that we let the more conservative bets (hitters) walk, and paid the much higher risk options (pitchers). Always struck me as so odd. But anyway, Crews represents a high floor high ceiling bet that Skenes simply isn't in terms of injury risk.

So which way do you go, and yes, at this point, we really need to be concerned when any of these guys are Boras clients because unless you're willing to break the market, boras clients are always going to seek free agency eventually and leave (unless you pay way above market early, maybe).

Wonder if 1 or both are boras guys?

Crews is. I don’t think Skenes is but don’t know for sure.