Juan Soto, Padre

[KnorrForYourMoney]

What is your exact point? After reading through your posts, I thought your point was that DC cant sustain a high payroll. But thats been proven to be wildly inaccurate.

What was "high" from 2015-19 is not the same in 2023.  $160 mil/yr isn't even median payroll.  Aaron Judge just signed for $40 mil/yr.  The market has changed.  The Nationals' drawing power and TV contract, unfortunately, have not.

[Natsinpwc]

Yea so you add a free agent pitcher and bat.  Even if their revenue is only $300 million (article said 350 million) how can they not afford a $200 million payroll. They never even had to pay for the damn stadium.

Look at the Phillies. They signed Harper and Wheeler and Realmuto. Continued to see attendance plummet and didn’t make the playoffs. So they signed Schwarber and Caatellanos last year and now Turner. Do you think they are losing money? 

[Natsinpwc]

What was "high" from 2015-19 is not the same in 2023.  $160 mil/yr isn't even median payroll.  Aaron Judge just signed for $40 mil/yr.  The market has changed.  The Nationals' drawing power and TV contract, unfortunately, have not.

Ticket prices have basically doubled in that time. Just get attendance back to 2.5 million and they will be fine.

[Slateman]

Also, the DC area is virtually recession-proof, and remains one of the more affluent areas in the country.

[bluestreak]

So attendance would be higher if Nationals Park had a higher capacity?  Really?  That's your argument?

I've never heard of a fan going, "well shoot, I'd really like to go to the game tonight, but the stadium has been roughly 85 percent full lately, so I think I'm going to pass up."

No I’m saying if your absolute ceiling is 3.3 million, it’s going to be hard to hit 3 million every year. To absolutely sell out a stadium isn’t that common.

I’m not an expert in fan behavior, but in my experience, if the stadium is 90 percent full, I’m definitely less likely to go. Tickets are more expensive and the seats available will be lower quality. If there are 15,000 seats left, it’s different than if there are 500. You can get a cheap ticket if 35,000 fans have tickets at Dodger Stadium. You cannot do that if 35,000 have a seat at Nats park. Especially for a Wednesday night game against the Royals.

Doesn’t matter when the team sucks, but in 2013-2019, attendance would definitely have been higher if the Stadium held 50K.

[Senatorswin]

According to this article on March 8th of this year the Nationals are the 4th most expensive MLB Stadium to see a game. One sneaky thing they did to get more ticket revenue per purchase is to charge processing fees even when you buy the ticket at the box office before the game. Shameful.

https://www.tnbets.com/most-expensive-sports-stadiums/

Having said that I'm glad Soto turned down their offer and depending on what he wants, I'm likely to not want them to sign him when he becomes a free agent.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

What was "high" from 2015-19 is not the same in 2023.  $160 mil/yr isn't even median payroll.

You are right. In terms of CBT, 15th is ChiSox at $194 million CBT, 16th is StL at $193.9 million.  In terms of 26 man payroll on Opening Day, that 15th was StL at $176.5 million, and 16th was Colorado at $172.1 million.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

What I take from that is that as long as the Nats have most of their positions from 2025-29 filled by pre-arb and low cost controlled guys, they can assemble a pretty competitive roster with 2 or 3 high priced FAs without even coming up to a median payroll.  A line up with just 3 hits among the position players (could be House / Crews / Wood, but you could slot in Lipscomb, Morales, Vaquero, or even a lesser guy), plus Abrams and Ruiz, doesn't have a ton of weak spots you need to splurge on. Soto easily fits in there. Rotation might be more of an issue, but a lead dog pitcher to go with Gore and a couple of hits among Cavalli, Sykora, Gray, Irvin, Rutledge etc.. gets you pretty close.

As for how do you pay for it? Well, I'm assuming that all this stuff about the Nats actually being a team that doesn't qualify for revenue sharing and that ranks them as a top market has some basis, even with the messed up MASN deal. Until you start seeing this team in the bottom half of estimated market value, it's reasonable to assume that smarter people than us have a basis for saying that.

That said, can any team afford 2 or 3 albatross contracts plus pay for the 3 or more good FAs to play key roles? I think even the big money coastal teams would have trouble. Braves and Dodgers have had the skill and smarts and luck to avoid the albatrosses, but I don't think the same can be said of the NYY and BOS. As for the BJs, Philly and Mets, jury is out.

[Senatorswin]

I'd want the Nats to pay for top of the rotation starting pitching before they invest in Soto.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Well, I'm assuming that all this stuff about the Nats actually being a team that doesn't qualify for revenue sharing and that ranks them as a top market has some basis, even with the messed up MASN deal. Until you start seeing this team in the bottom half of estimated market value, it's reasonable to assume that smarter people than us have a basis for saying that.

That's the thing: I might be mind-facting on this, but I thought that was all done based on market size without much thought given to other considerations.

The Nats are hamstrung by a few things: the MASN deal, 30+ years of no baseball in DC (a lost generation or two of potential fans), and the atypical/high level of transience in the DC area.  Not really a recipe for cultivating a large, devoted fanbase or raking in a lot of revenue through TV and merchandise.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

No I’m saying if your absolute ceiling is 3.3 million, it’s going to be hard to hit 3 million every year. To absolutely sell out a stadium isn’t that common.

I’m not an expert in fan behavior, but in my experience, if the stadium is 90 percent full, I’m definitely less likely to go. Tickets are more expensive and the seats available will be lower quality. If there are 15,000 seats left, it’s different than if there are 500. You can get a cheap ticket if 35,000 fans have tickets at Dodger Stadium. You cannot do that if 35,000 have a seat at Nats park. Especially for a Wednesday night game against the Royals.

Doesn’t matter when the team sucks, but in 2013-2019, attendance would definitely have been higher if the Stadium held 50K.

We're talking 10-15,000 vs. about 5,000, though.  I just really don't see it making much of a difference.

I went to a packed Coors Field on an uncharacteristically hot Denver night against the A's of all teams, and there were still plenty of people buying walk-up tickets and taking what they could get, seat-wise.

But I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

[Slateman]

That's the thing: I might be mind-facting on this, but I thought that was all done based on market size without much thought given to other considerations.

The Nats are hamstrung by a few things: the MASN deal, 30+ years of no baseball in DC (a lost generation or two of potential fans), and the atypical/high level of transience in the DC area.  Not really a recipe for cultivating a large, devoted fanbase or raking in a lot of revenue through TV and merchandise.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/196692/revenue-of-the-washington-nationals-since-2006/#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20the%20revenue%20of,million%20U.S.%20dollars%20in%202006.

Nationals pulled in 356 million in revenue last year.
When they put a winner on the team, they are regularly in the upper half of attendance and revenue. DC is a city of bandwagon jumpers, if you win, they will show up.

This team is only hamstrung by ownership's willingness to spend money

[Natsinpwc]

I already posted that revenue number. He is skeptical of it. 

I agree they have the revenue as do most other major league teams.

[imref]

hit his 30th. Still on pace for a .400 OBP / .900+ OPS with 100+ RBIs.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I already posted that revenue number. He is skeptical of it. 

I agree they have the revenue as do most other major league teams.

I'll start believing it when they even begin to explain how they arrive at those numbers.  On the surface, they look like rough estimates based on market size, which might work for most teams but doesn't really check out when it comes to the Nationals.  This is a franchise that doesn't generate the kind of revenue it should for the market size based on arbitrary but very real limitations (e.g. the crappy MASN deal, a relatively small fanbase due to no team in DC for 30+ years, etc.).

[KnorrForYourMoney]

https://www.statista.com/statistics/196692/revenue-of-the-washington-nationals-since-2006/#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20the%20revenue%20of,million%20U.S.%20dollars%20in%202006.

Nationals pulled in 356 million in revenue last year.
When they put a winner on the team, they are regularly in the upper half of attendance and revenue. DC is a city of bandwagon jumpers, if you win, they will show up.

This team is only hamstrung by ownership's willingness to spend money

I've only made this point like ten times in this thread, but I'll make it again: the team woefully underperformed what it should have drawn, attendance-wise, between 2012 and 2019.

Attendance oscillated between 2.2 and 2.7 million during those years.  Considering the team was a perennial contender with possible multiple future HOF'ers regularly on the roster, and played fairly large market, this is somewhere between "bad" and "embarrassingly miserable." 

The Rockies were able to draw that kind of number last year, and they totally sucked.  Not to mention they just pushed their star player (Arenado) out of town in a way that would make the front office/ownership of the Pittsburgh Pirates blush.

The Brewers have been able to draw over 2.7 million if they even sniff the postseason, and they're playing in one of the smallest markets in North America.

The bottom line is that if Nats fans have any expectation of the team spending like a big market team, then the DC area is going to have to support them like an actual big market should.

[Slateman]

I've only made this point like ten times in this thread, but I'll make it again: the team woefully underperformed what it should have drawn, attendance-wise, between 2012 and 2019.

Attendance oscillated between 2.2 and 2.7 million during those years.  Considering the team was a perennial contender with possible multiple future HOF'ers regularly on the roster, and played fairly large market, this is somewhere between "bad" and "embarrassingly miserable." 

The Rockies were able to draw that kind of number last year, and they totally sucked.  Not to mention they just pushed their star player (Arenado) out of town in a way that would make the front office/ownership of the Pittsburgh Pirates blush.

The Brewers have been able to draw over 2.7 million if they even sniff the postseason, and they're playing in one of the smallest markets in North America.

The bottom line is that if Nats fans have any expectation of the team spending like a big market team, then the DC area is going to have to support them like an actual big market should.

2.2 to 2.7 million is a huge range and pretty much encompasses ranks 6-15. For example, Houston only garners 2.6 million last year, and they won a WS.

2.2 - 2.7 is more than enough to support a big payroll. Especially when a team is in one of the most affluent parts of the country. Thats the difference between Colorado and DC

https://www.tnbets.com/most-expensive-sports-stadiums/

It costs almost double to go to a Nats game. In order to catch the Nationals for in-park revenue, they'd  have to increase their attendance by over 30%.

Even if the Nats only get around 2 million fans, theyre clearly close to 200 million in ticket sales. So yes, 2.4-2.5 million fans in a season would easily support a competitive payroll.

[imref]

Might have to update the thread title shortly:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/yankees-padres-have-had-preliminary-discussions-on-juan-soto.html

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Might have to update the thread title shortly:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/yankees-padres-have-had-preliminary-discussions-on-juan-soto.html

My initial thought was he'd be a great fit for the current Yankees and their stadium. Really could use a great lefty bat to pair with Judge. Things that make me a little hesitant would be he's best when he doesn't try to pull everything, and the short fence might make him too pull conscious. In an odd way, Fenway is terrific for lefty hitters because it rewards using left field. Soto is like Boggs with Ortiz's power. The other thing that might make me hesitant is if they try to play him in left at Yankee Stadium. It's probably too big. I sort of think moving Judge there might be a better move.

[Slateman]

Cant wait to hear him complain about his spot in the lineup in NY. Or his teammates.

[Natsinpwc]

First world problems.  I would assume they would want to have a long term deal in place before any trade. 

[Slateman]

First world problems.  I would assume they would want to have a long term deal in place before any trade. 

If thats their contingency, the trade is never happening

[HalfSmokes]

Cant wait to hear him complain about his spot in the lineup in NY. Or his teammates.

I’m sure he’ll love the NYC media.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Cant wait to hear him complain about his spot in the lineup in NY. Or his teammates.

I'm guessing he's automatically #3 or #4, for lineup balance. Judge is happy hitting #2, which is the sabre position that would most freak out Soto. I don't see them #1 and #2, so like I said, the fit is ridiculously good in the lineup.

[imref]

This notes that the Yankees have five top-100 prospects to build a package for Soto:

https://www.si.com/mlb/padres/news/padres-rumors-yankees-exploring-trade-for-juan-soto-ks1994

[nfotiu]

How much is one year of Soto (with Boras as agent) worth?   Not nearly as much as they paid I assume.   They seem motivated more by money issues.   

Losing their TV deal changes things and was backloaded.  MLB gave them 80% of its worth this year, but I don't think they'll help next year.

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/baseball/2023/padres-finances-mlb-local-tv-1234724833/