Author Topic: Juan Soto, Padre  (Read 18142 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #350: May 12, 2023, 04:26:42 PM »
I want him to go to Boston.
could offer them Verdugo and Connor Wong, but SD would have to add something.  those guys are studs.

Offline welch

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #351: May 12, 2023, 04:49:56 PM »
could offer them Verdugo and Connor Wong, but SD would have to add something.  those guys are studs.

Boston is for after 2024. Rizzo did great, so far, trading Soto for all those prospects.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #352: May 12, 2023, 04:52:50 PM »
Boston is for after 2024. Rizzo did great, so far, trading Soto for all those prospects.
;)

Those were 2 of the three Boston got for Mookie, plus relief from the price contract

Offline imref

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Offline imref

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #354: May 17, 2023, 09:49:46 PM »
Padres drop 2 out of 3 to KC. 2-9 in their last 11

Offline Dave in Fairfax

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #355: May 17, 2023, 11:20:48 PM »
0 for 4 with a walk today, but that still leaves him at .339/.456/.625 for the first 15 games this May. A definite step up from April's .217/.390/.413 line.

Offline imref

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #356: May 17, 2023, 11:29:12 PM »
0 for 4 with a walk today, but that still leaves him at .339/.456/.625 for the first 15 games this May. A definite step up from April's .217/.390/.413 line.

he tried to go home on a passed ball that bounced right back to the catcher. The catcher just waited at home for Soto to arrive, Soto was too far along to go back to third and didn't feel like dealing with a rundown.

Offline imref

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #357: May 23, 2023, 12:55:13 PM »

Offline welch

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #358: May 23, 2023, 03:37:23 PM »
making the case to move this thread to the Clubhouse:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/05/23/juan-soto-nationals-free-agency/

Maybe open a perspective-prospective on Soto in Sunshine Squad. Svrluga's article started me on the thinking that said the Nats should sign a Jayson Werth this offseason.

Offline imref

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #359: May 23, 2023, 03:53:38 PM »
Maybe open a perspective-prospective on Soto in Sunshine Squad. Svrluga's article started me on the thinking that said the Nats should sign a Jayson Werth this offseason.

Soto has another year left on his current contract, and there's no way the Nats are going to trade for him for this or next year, so any reasonable discussion would assume that he's a FA at the end of next year and we would be signing him as a FA.

If you fast-forward to 2025, in a best case scenario:

LF: Wood
CF: Hassell
RF: Soto
1B: TJ White (who has been awful this year)
2B: Garcia
SS: Abrams
3B: House
C: Ruiz
DH:Kieboom

That's obviously a reach given that most of those guys are A+ or below, but Soto would certainly be a nice fit for 2025-2035 as those young guys develop.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #360: May 26, 2023, 12:25:06 PM »
After walking just under a zillion times against us, Soto is officially back to having more walks than strikeouts (48-47) and is the 8th best hitter in baseball by wRC+ (155) so far on the season.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #361: May 26, 2023, 01:22:30 PM »
After walking just under a zillion times against us, Soto is officially back to having more walks than strikeouts (48-47) and is the 8th best hitter in baseball by wRC+ (155) so far on the season.
Its good we can be everyone's get right team

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #362: May 26, 2023, 01:50:48 PM »
After walking just under a zillion times against us, Soto is officially back to having more walks than strikeouts (48-47) and is the 8th best hitter in baseball by wRC+ (155) so far on the season.

The guy on the postgame show on 106.7 said yesterday as long as Bogaerts is hitting .254 and three guys behind him are hitting below .200 and the other two are hitting .221 and .237 why would you pitch to Soto. I would assume they would start hitting better behind Soto but until they do it might be difficult for Soto to get something to hit.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #363: May 26, 2023, 02:12:22 PM »
The guy on the postgame show on 106.7 said yesterday as long as Bogaerts is hitting .254 and three guys behind him are hitting below .200 and the other two are hitting .221 and .237 why would you pitch to Soto. I would assume they would start hitting better behind Soto but until they do it might be difficult for Soto to get something to hit.

Even with getting nothing to hit Soto is still raking. OPS over .900 and ISO of .233 (highest since 2020).

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #364: May 26, 2023, 02:17:20 PM »
Even with getting nothing to hit Soto is still raking. OPS over .900 and ISO of .233 (highest since 2020).

Long term though if the hitters behind him don't pick it up the word will be don't pitch to him. Bogaerts was hitting great so could protect Soto, but if he keeps hitting like he is now it will be tougher on Soto.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #365: May 26, 2023, 02:29:08 PM »
If the guys on the radio are using batting average pay no attention to them.  Did they mention Machado is out?  That’s kind of a big deal. Anyway it was very nice of the Nats to help get Juan back on track. 

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #366: May 26, 2023, 02:39:40 PM »
If the guys on the radio are using batting average pay no attention to them.  Did they mention Machado is out?  That’s kind of a big deal. Anyway it was very nice of the Nats to help get Juan back on track.

I was glad the fans treated him well. He didn't leave on his own, he was traded. Also, we almost definitely wouldn't of won the world series without him.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #367: May 26, 2023, 02:42:21 PM »
I was glad the fans treated him well. He didn't leave on his own, he was traded. Also, we almost definitely wouldn't of won the world series without him.
Maybe he is who Lerner was referring to when PB69 asked him about bats!!!!!!!

I can dream.

Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #368: May 28, 2023, 11:48:14 AM »
I was glad the fans treated him well. He didn't leave on his own, he was traded. Also, we almost definitely wouldn't of won the world series without him.

Had they offered him a deal without caveats he’s most likely here for the duration of his career. He loved it here. The fans adored him as well. I think if there’s ever an obvious situation of a player going back home in free agency this is it. Now, it most likely won’t happen but it would be great for the fanbase if he did. New owners with a young team and their superstar comes back.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #369: May 28, 2023, 12:34:19 PM »
Had they offered him a deal without caveats he’s most likely here for the duration of his career. He loved it here. The fans adored him as well. I think if there’s ever an obvious situation of a player going back home in free agency this is it. Now, it most likely won’t happen but it would be great for the fanbase if he did. New owners with a young team and their superstar comes back.
He was offered a deal without caveats. Biggest contract in baseball history. No deferred money. Aligned to the rest of the free agency class

No counter offers. Complained about ownership change. He didnt want to be here through a rebuild. Got to San Diego and complained about the final offer being released to the public, despite the obvious need of the franchise to do it (and it is literally, the stupidest thing Ive ever heard someone whine about in baseball). Then he whined about not like hitting in the 2 hole.

He's an amazing hitter. A HoFer. But the money is simply too much for what he is. He is a slightly (maybe) better thn Yordan Alvarez. He is a butcher in the field. He is an awful base runner. His future is a DH. Which is fine, but its not worth 500+ million.

Would rather have Urias/Bieber and Pete Alonso, with money left over for something else. 2019 was great. Let it go. If Juan had wanted to be here, he would be here. He didnt. Time to move on.

Offline rileyn

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #370: May 29, 2023, 07:00:52 AM »
Had they offered him a deal without caveats he’s most likely here for the duration of his career. He loved it here. The fans adored him as well. I think if there’s ever an obvious situation of a player going back home in free agency this is it. Now, it most likely won’t happen but it would be great for the fanbase if he did. New owners with a young team and their superstar comes back.
Boras.  Boras.  Boras.

Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #371: May 29, 2023, 08:20:16 AM »
He was offered a deal without caveats. Biggest contract in baseball history. No deferred money. Aligned to the rest of the free agency class

No counter offers. Complained about ownership change. He didnt want to be here through a rebuild. Got to San Diego and complained about the final offer being released to the public, despite the obvious need of the franchise to do it (and it is literally, the stupidest thing Ive ever heard someone whine about in baseball). Then he whined about not like hitting in the 2 hole.

He's an amazing hitter. A HoFer. But the money is simply too much for what he is. He is a slightly (maybe) better thn Yordan Alvarez. He is a butcher in the field. He is an awful base runner. His future is a DH. Which is fine, but its not worth 500+ million.

Would rather have Urias/Bieber and Pete Alonso, with money left over for something else. 2019 was great. Let it go. If Juan had wanted to be here, he would be here. He didnt. Time to move on.

Wasn't the deal stretched out over 13 years? So even with it being the most money ever offered there was still a caveat. The AAV was lower than quite a few other guys and would've kept him through his best years basically preventing him from cashing in again at the end of the deal. It's similar to them offering him $500M over 20 years. Sure, its the most money ever paid out but its over a substantial period of time that seriously hurts said players earning power. The number looked incredibly high and while it was the deal still heavily favored the Lerners and they knew he wasn't going to sign it. It was a similar bad faith offer to what they made to past players like Bryce Harper except it was without deferrals. It was another "see we tried" Lerner's deal.  Had they offered him 10 years $400M he most likely takes it and that's what should've been offered. It gives him the chance to hit the market again at a relatively young age for a DH which most players of his caliber would want.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #372: May 29, 2023, 08:28:20 AM »
Wasn't the deal stretched out over 13 years? So even with it being the most money ever offered there was still a caveat. The AAV was lower than quite a few other guys and would've kept him through his best years basically preventing him from cashing in again at the end of the deal. It's similar to them offering him $500M over 20 years. Sure, its the most money ever paid out but its over a substantial period of time that seriously hurts said players earning power. The number looked incredibly high and while it was the deal still heavily favored the Lerners and they knew he wasn't going to sign it. It was a similar bad faith offer to what they made to past players like Bryce Harper except it was without deferrals. It was another "see we tried" Lerner's deal.  Had they offered him 10 years $400M he most likely takes it and that's what should've been offered. It gives him the chance to hit the market again at a relatively young age for a DH which most players of his caliber would want.
All deals are being "stretched out," particularly with younger players. Its a way of paying big money while limiting the impact to the luxury tax threshold.

It was nothing like the offer they made to Harper. Harper's offer had over half the contract deferred into his 60s. There was no deferred money on the Soto deal. It was the largest deal in MLB history and had 13 years to lessen the impact to the luxury tax. Just like Boegarts, Turner, Correa, and a host of lesser deals. That is the current strategy for big contracts.

It was a fair offer. Soto didnt want to stay.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #373: May 29, 2023, 09:39:44 AM »
if you ask svrluga, at the time he thought a fair offer would have been $500 million. i forget  if it was 13 or 15 years. that's on paper. consensus was higher than 13, $440.  that's not to say that there wasn't a bit  of an auction  winner's curse built into that price.

fyi - auction winner's curse is an economic theory that auction winner's generally overpay for a scarce asset. the winner of an auction is the one that values the asset the highest and is willing to pay for it. that means that the rest of the market has to be wrong about the asset by thinking it's not worth that much in order for "winning" the asset to be worth what was paid.

I think Slate is talking perhaps about is view of a fair value for Soto's expected performance rather a fair representation of what Soto was projected to get on the market, less a discount for uncertainty.  i also think this is the lerner / rizzo philosophy of free agency. they tend to not pay the auction winner's curse unless there's a specific need, like Corbin in 2019. Stras is maybe the exception

Offline imref

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Re: Juan Soto, Padre
« Reply #374: June 20, 2023, 11:00:01 AM »
David Ortiz:

Quote
Anyone who knows this business knows that you don't say no to that offer. They were going to put his name on that franchise. What do you do with $500 million that you can't do with $440 million? ".