Author Topic: Luis Garcia Aspirations / Trepidations Thread  (Read 9524 times)

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Offline zimm_da_kid

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You're not wrong, but K% and BB% stabilize much faster than other stats. ~60 PAs and 120 PAs respectively. García is at 122 PAs now.

Similarly, exit velocity stabilizes around 130 PAs and so far this year his avg exit velo is 2.1 mph above his previous career high.  Factor in how his babip is .060 points below where it was last year (.337 last year to .277 this year) and he looks like a .300 hitter with decent on base skills.

He's a hitter now boys and girls. 

Metrics don't even have him as that bad of a fielder this year.

Online Slateman

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You're not wrong, but K% and BB% stabilize much faster than other stats. ~60 PAs and 120 PAs respectively. García is at 122 PAs now.
Thats a little over a month. He's hitting over .400 in May so far. Just dont see that sustaining.

Like Ive said about all the development, its much more relevant to see where we are in August in September

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Offline Senatorswin

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At the start of the season I put on here somewhere two things to watch is can Garcia improve his plate discipline and up his OBP and will Meneses be the real deal. It's still early but so far so good.


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/05/27/nationals-luis-garcia-record/
luis's 6 hit night. ties rendon record for hits in a game, 1st to double 2x in an inning, and 5 of 6 hits oppo. 

dougherty:
Quote
The Royals seemed intent on sapping García’s power by working him away, away, away. But instead of trying to pull pitches he shouldn’t, he peppered the left field grass, leading off three separate innings with a hit.

So far this season, García has made considerable strides in improving what was once an overly aggressive plate approach. Last year, he ranked in the first percentile for walk rate, third percentile for chase rate, 29th percentile for hard-hit percentage, 35th percentile for whiff rate and 42nd percentile for strikeout rate, burying his flashes of potential with too many confounding at-bats. Through 186 plate appearances in 2023, he is in the 27th percentile for walk rate, 63rd for chase rate, 28th for hard-hit percentage, 90th for whiff rate and 95th for strikeout rate.

That’s almost a complete 180. The catch, at least to this point, is that his average launch has dropped — from 5.5 to 2.7 — and his hard-hit percentage has yet to jump. But García is making much better swing decisions, which was a major goal for him and the Nationals’ staff ahead of his first full season in the majors. In turn, his underlying statistics suggest more production will come if he continues in his current direction.

Online imref

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This is your regular reminder that he’s only 23. Youngest player since 1964 with six hits in game.

Online Slateman

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Gets 6 hits in a game, goes 0-10 over the next two games.

#DarnellColesEffect

Offline Natsinpwc

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Gets 6 hits in a game, goes 0-10 over the next two games.

#DarnellColesEffect
6 for 16 with 2 doubles. I will take it.

Offline rileyn

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I'm really getting tired of watching him bounce out to 2nd.  I will give him the rest of the year, but if we are really considering him a building block, I'm not optimistic.

Online Mattionals

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I'm really getting tired of watching him bounce out to 2nd.  I will give him the rest of the year, but if we are really considering him a building block, I'm not optimistic.


The Nats are sitting on an entire OF likely to be ready right around the same time. I think the 2025 OD roster might honestly look like some combo of Hassall, Crewes, and Wood in any config since I believe all can play CF. House could also be up at 3B by 2025 as well. I am unsure if Abrams profiles as a better SS or 2B, but I think he is a legit piece.


I postulate Ruiz can be fixed and turned into a 1B/DH, so if you are "filling in pieces" you need to address one more 1B/DH (Soto honestly profiles perfect for this), a Catcher, and one MI guy. I've got some high hopes!

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Kind of disappointed that Garcia ended up being the only one of the potential MIs from the system that could be even a near average starting piece. When you think about it, Kieboom, Antuna, Garcia were all touted, then the lesser pieces like Cluff occasionally showed some promise, and I'm trying to remember the name of the guy who went up and down a bunch as a backup infielder on the good teams . . . 

I do think Garcia was rushed when Castro went on the IL in 2020. He hit some long balls early, so we thought he'd be a pull hitter. I agree with Frandsen that he's better when he's patient and using the whole field. There's some big signs of progress this year in lowering his K%, so it's still jury out, I/M/O.

Offline UMDNats

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Garcia is a guy who is fine to throw out there in a rebuild but when you're serious he can't be in the starting lineup.

Offline KV

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I’m a little surprised with his demotion. He hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, but what do they expect will happen in AAA?  And is whoever replaces him gonna be any better?

Offline Natsinpwc

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I’m a little surprised with his demotion. He hasn’t exactly set the world on fire, but what do they expect will happen in AAA?  And is whoever replaces him gonna be any better?
The first is a good question. Maybe they just want him to relax. The second part is not really relevant on a last place team.  I would like to see Baker get a shot.  Might as well see what he can do the next couple months.

Offline aBaltoNat

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I'm assuming they've sent him down to work on something specific. I'm also surprised. He hasn't been good...but not awful.

Online Slateman

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I'm assuming they've sent him down to work on something specific. I'm also surprised. He hasn't been good...but not awful.
Uh ... how has he not been awful? Hes basically hitting like Robles did from 2020 to 2022.

Offline aspenbubba

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Uh ... how has he not been awful? Hes basically hitting like Robles did from 2020 to 2022.

I never bought in on your assessment of Garcia and I was wrong by him being demoted. But comparing him to Robles in 20-22 is not accurate IIRC  Robles BA was around .235 with absolutely no pop while Garcia has been around .265 most of the season with some XBH.

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Talknats:
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The truth is, since June 22, Garcia is only hitting .210 with a .250 OBP and a powerless .269 slug for just a .519 OPS, and when you couple that with some uninspiring second base defense that has been negative at a -3.0 OAA, you can see why general manager Mike Rizzo made the move.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/08/03/nationals-luis-garcia-demotion-minors/

Quote
The left-handed hitter finished July with a .217 average, .250 on-base percentage and .301 slugging percentage, good for a .551 OPS. Since logging a six-hit game against the Kansas City Royals on May 26, he has a .599 OPS, the 11th-lowest among qualified hitters in that stretch. On defense, his lack of quickness at second base has turned a handful of routine plays into diving attempts. He is skilled on both sides of the ball, possessing soft hands and plus contact ability. But that’s rarely yielded results in the past four months.

García knows he can reach most pitches and has trouble resisting. Early on, though, he adjusted his overaggressive approach, cutting his swing and chase rates in a way that pleased the coaching staff. But if you take his season as a whole, concerning trends emerge. His chase rate may be 34 percent, nine points lower than last year, yet he is still vulnerable below the zone, where pitchers keep attacking him to induce weakly hit groundballs. His average launch angle has dipped from 5.5 in 2022 to 4.1. Despite rarely striking out or whiffing, he’s in the 28th percentile in hard-hit percentage, according to Statcast, and hardly ever walks.

Sure, a few of his expected stats indicate at least some bad luck. But luck aside, this is not the desired production for a bat-first middle infielder who was once a top prospect. It is far, far from it. Perhaps most noticeably, García crushed four-seam fastballs last year (.747 slugging percentage) and has not done that in 2023 (.471). And that’s with seeing the pitch at a near-identical rate.

Offline aBaltoNat

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Yeah, he's got some things to work on. I don't think this puts him on the outside for the future, but we need to see more.

Offline catocony

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I think that Rizzo will rotate guys up and down over the next 2 months.  Garcia will most likely be back up in a month after Downs does zero.  Maybe Baker gets a call up, maybe he doesn't. 

Offline aspenbubba

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I think Downs will be here until the end of the month when the MiLb season ends and then gets released. They will use his spot on the 40 man for Baker or Lipscomb. I do see him starting over Chavis and Vargas as we know what they can do performance wise.

Offline Natsinpwc

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I think Downs will be here until the end of the month when the MiLb season ends and then gets released. They will use his spot on the 40 man for Baker or Lipscomb. I do see him starting over Chavis and Vargas as we know what they can do performance wise.
Minor league season does not end until sept 24.  Triple A anyway.

Offline aspenbubba

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Minor league season does not end until sept 24.  Triple A anyway.

My mistake. I thought it ended one month before MLB season ended.

Offline Natsinpwc

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My mistake. I thought it ended one month before MLB season ended.
Used to buy they changed a couple years ago. And the mob rosters are now more limited in September.