Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager

[zimm_da_kid]

Has a babip of .257 this year.  For his career (including this year) his babip is .324 and hasn’t had a season with one lower than .312.  He’s due for a resurgence soon.  I’m hyped

[imref]

Worst dWar in all of baseball:

https://www.talknats.com/2022/05/24/time-move-juan-soto-back-lf/

[nfotiu]

I have to wonder if his motivation is taking a big hit playing on a bad team without much future.   It can't be nearly as much fun playing on this year's team.

[imref]

I have to wonder if his motivation is taking a big hit playing on a bad team without much future.   It can't be nearly as much fun playing on this year's team.

The offense has been pretty good though.

FWIW through his first 43 games:
- 2021 .281 / .411 / .432, 6 HRs
- 2022 .245 / .381 / .452, 8 HRs

A bit more power this year, but average and OBP are down.  He went on a tear starting around mid-June last year.

[Five Banners]

Worst dWar in all of baseball:

https://www.talknats.com/2022/05/24/time-move-juan-soto-back-lf/

Had the same thought last night of a move back

[Slateman]

Its time to move Soto to DH

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Worst dWar in all of baseball:

https://www.talknats.com/2022/05/24/time-move-juan-soto-back-lf/

the lol point is complaining that Soto has only earned half the $17 million he with be paid this year based on his WAR.  He's earned that in 43 games.

[imref]

he has a second career as Freddy Freeman's personal therapist if baseball doesn't work out:

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/uwsneo/in_100_routfreddie_freeman_tells_juan_soto_his/

[Dave in Fairfax]

This is a question about the offense as a whole as well as Soto in particular.

In one of the first few games of the season, Frandsen made a comment after Soto hit a grounder to the opposite field. As I recall, he said that during spring training, the hitting coach had placed a bucket in the shortstop position and had Soto practice hitting balls into it. I've also noticed other hitters including Cruz and Bell hitting grounders through the infield (as well as grounding out). And we have a team that of late has been fluctuating between 2nd and 4th in the NL in hits and batting average, but is 15th in homers and 13th in slugging.

So, the question is, has Coles messed up the team's hitting, making it into a ground ball hitting team, and maybe messing up some player's, including Sotos', swings?

[zimm_da_kid]

This is a question about the offense as a whole as well as Soto in particular.

In one of the first few games of the season, Frandsen made a comment after Soto hit a grounder to the opposite field. As I recall, he said that during spring training, the hitting coach had placed a bucket in the shortstop position and had Soto practice hitting balls into it. I've also noticed other hitters including Cruz and Bell hitting grounders through the infield (as well as grounding out). And we have a team that of late has been fluctuating between 2nd and 4th in the NL in hits and batting average, but is 15th in homers and 13th in slugging.

So, the question is, has Coles messed up the team's hitting, making it into a ground ball hitting team, and maybe messing up some player's, including Sotos', swings?

The 5-6 hole will from henceforth be known as “Cole’s hole”. Who needs one of the most respected hitting coaches in the game when you have a scrub telling his players to pound his hole

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Nice analysis of what is up with Soto.  Some of it is absurd bad luck (.207 BABIP, difference between expected average from his contact vs. results), but several specific observations.  First, he's being pitched differently.  Just not seeing fastballs, which are the pitches he's always crushed.  Second, even though he's getting pounded low and away (his weakest zone in terms of isolated power - extra bases on hits), he's been rolling over and pulling a ton of grounders.  Finally, with the new baseball, the fly balls to the opposite field that used to leave the park or drop for extra bases are not going as far in general in baseball, and impacts Soto in particular due to his hitting approach of letting the ball travel far before committing.  Goes so far as to suggest he may need to become more pull-happy on his flies.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/juan-soto-will-bounce-back-but-can-he-make-the-necessary-adjustments/

It's a good read.  Just 2 excerpts, first discussing his contact on low and away:

The points above represent every down-and-away pitch Soto has made contact against in 2022. They also reveal an odd dichotomy. When Soto hits the ball on the ground against such a pitch, he often does so to the pull side. That fact offers insight as to why teams are shifting against him so often – in 60.3% of his plate appearances, to be exact – despite Soto not being an archetypal pull hitter. The two-step strategy of pitching to where he’s less comfortable, then collecting a grounder has seemed to work – in a limited sample, at least.

When Soto hits the ball in the air against a down-and-away pitch, however, he often does so to the opposite side. Soto does not (and may never) pull a majority of his air balls due to the nature of his swing. He reacts later rather than earlier to pitches, which helps him spit on borderline pitches but also shifts back his point of contact, resulting in balls that fly the other way. That’s never been much of an issue; Soto has been one of the league’s greatest hitters since his arrival, after all.

Here’s the thing, though. The drag coefficient of the baseball right now is the highest it’s ever been in Soto’s major league career. As a result, fly balls and line drives are averaging the lowest recorded distance in the Statcast era. Certain air balls are more negatively impacted than others, however. You may have noticed that pull hitters aren’t reeling from the effects of a deader ball, mainly because their approach gives them room for error – pulling the ball maximizes exit velocity and thus results on contact. But hitters aiming for the opposite field need every foot they can get, and so far, the new ball has turned many of their home runs into harmless fly outs.

Second, on just how absurd his luck on contact has been:

I need to stress that Soto’s underperformance is largely a product of bad luck, plain and simple. Soto has a .207 BABIP. Nobody has a .207 BABIP! Even Joey Gallo has a .256 BABIP. Batting average on balls in play is mysteriously down in 2022, but that’s nowhere near enough to explain why Soto’s been a bottom-dweller in this regard. Another quirk from this year: Nearly everyone is lagging behind their expected wOBA because Statcast metrics have not been calibrated to the new offensive environment. Even so, the gap between Soto’s actual and expected wOBA is the 28th-largest in baseball. Soto isn’t really behaving like an inferior version of himself. The contact is there. The discipline is there. We’re still in June, and there’s plenty of time for a correction to occur.

[imref]

I noticed on Saturday he was trying to go opposite field to defeat the shift

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I noticed on Saturday he was trying to go opposite field to defeat the shift

Easier said than done, but if he started to take a few of those down and away pitches to the left side and on the ground, it'd kill the shift, up the average, and open holes on the right side.

[nfotiu]

Easier said than done, but if he started to take a few of those down and away pitches to the left side and on the ground, it'd kill the shift, up the average, and open holes on the right side.

I thought teams generally tried to pitch to the shift.  Is he getting down and away balls with a full switch on very often?

[imref]

Easier said than done, but if he started to take a few of those down and away pitches to the left side and on the ground, it'd kill the shift, up the average, and open holes on the right side.

IIRC, he hit a soft shot to the SS.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I thought teams generally tried to pitch to the shift.  Is he getting down and away balls with a full switch on very often?

chart in the article isolates on balls he hits that are down and away.  It shows that, most of the time, he's hitting those down and away pitches to the right side on the ground.  Check the link. He kills most anything he hits inside.

[Natsinpwc]

I thought teams generally tried to pitch to the shift.  Is he getting down and away balls with a full switch on very often?

Well against the power hitters they often pitch low and away even with the shift. Results in a ground ball to the pull side quite often as guys try and pull everything.

[hotshot]

Its time to move Soto to DH

Cabrera, Harper and Stanton. Are they all full-time DHs now?

[imref]

Cabrera, Harper and Stanton. Are they all full-time DHs now?

Harper only because of his elbow

[Slateman]

Cabrera, Harper and Stanton. Are they all full-time DHs now?

Stanton is. Cabrera is irrelevant. Harper will be back in the OF. His arm is too good not to

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Stanton is. Cabrera is irrelevant. Harper will be back in the OF. His arm is too good not to

I thought Stanton is playing right and Judge center, Gallo in left, in the Big Outfield alignment.

[Slateman]

I thought Stanton is playing right and Judge center, Gallo in left, in the Big Outfield alignment.

About even. The only reason he's playing the OF is because of how bad Hicks and Gallo have been.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

My impression of Stanton's d is he's not Dunn bad and that he mostly dh's for body protection.

[English Natsie]

Goes so far as to suggest he may need to become more pull-happy on his flies.

Really?...

[Slateman]

My impression of Stanton's d is he's not Dunn bad and that he mostly dh's for body protection.

That would be correct. In his younger days, he was a very good fielding RFer with a cannon for an arm.

But he's 32 and fragile now. So they DH him a lot. And I dont see him getting more time in the field as he progresses