Author Topic: Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager  (Read 533 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager
« Topic Start: April 01, 2022, 11:22:04 AM »
Let's have a thread that's not about contracts and just about Soto the player.  A pleasant thing to ponder.

Fangraphs discussion of the Nats right field situation, which they project as easily the strongest in baseball due to Soto's 7.1 projected fWAR.

Quote
At 23 years old, Soto already looks like an all-time great in the making. After becoming the youngest NL batting champion (and slash-stat triple crown winner) during the pandemic-shortened season, he assembled an MVP-caliber campaign in 2021, hitting .313/.465/.534 with 29 homers and making his first All-Star team. His on-base percentage and jaw-dropping 145 walks led the National League, with the latter the highest total by anyone not named Barry Bonds since 1999. Meanwhile, Soto’s 163 wRC+ and 6.6 WAR both placed second in the NL, and it was no fluke; over the past three seasons, his 159 wRC+ is the majors’ highest mark by 13 points. The scary thing is that the players who hit as well as he has through age 22 have generally improved and the projections suggest he will as well; that’s a forecast for a 172 wRC+ above. Buy popcorn and watch.

They project similar numbers as 2021, with a little lower OBP and a bit more SLG. They view all the backup options as replacement level players.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager
« Reply #1: April 01, 2022, 11:46:58 AM »
He's in the category of steroid-era juicers in terms of potential production, but unless Cruz or Bell can protect him he's looking at 175 walks.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager
« Reply #2: April 01, 2022, 01:37:49 PM »
He's in the category of steroid-era juicers in terms of potential production, but unless Cruz or Bell can protect him he's looking at 175 walks.
you probably don't follow pro cycling, but the top guys now are putting in some performances that are reminiscent of the peak EPO performances for short stretches.  They most likely aren't drugging because they can't do it over 5 mountain passes (like Floyd Landis's infamous ride the year he was caught) and the testing and bio-passport program is so far more comprehensive than anything in sports right now, but Soto is now showing that advanced training, film breakdown, etc... makes it possible to have Wade Boggs eye with enough power to make him into an all time hitter.  If Soto had more loft like the launch angle freaks, he'd be Barry Bonds.

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager
« Reply #3: April 01, 2022, 01:42:49 PM »
Glad he was able to get a ring in Washington. A shame that peak Soto is likely to be wasted on rebuilding teams - but another year or two needs to tick off Soto's contract before a fair value trade package for him could even conceivably be assembled.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager
« Reply #4: April 01, 2022, 04:09:51 PM »
Glad he was able to get a ring in Washington. A shame that peak Soto is likely to be wasted on rebuilding teams - but another year or two needs to tick off Soto's contract before a fair value trade package for him could even conceivably be assembled.
Miss the first sentence of first post?

Offline imref

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Re: Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager
« Reply #5: April 01, 2022, 04:51:26 PM »
Who is Ted Soto?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager
« Reply #6: April 01, 2022, 06:03:51 PM »
Who is Ted Soto?
Dee Soto's more interesting set of wheels?

Offline imref

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Re: Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager
« Reply #7: April 01, 2022, 08:27:36 PM »
Dee Soto's more interesting set of wheels?

Well played

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager
« Reply #8: April 01, 2022, 09:03:42 PM »
That went way over my head. 

Offline imref

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Offline English Natsie

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Re: Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager
« Reply #10: April 02, 2022, 06:56:36 PM »
So - how many walks do we think Soto will draw, this season?   ;)

Offline Smithian

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Re: Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager
« Reply #11: April 28, 2022, 01:11:34 PM »
He has 3 RBIs after 20 games. How much money would you have lost on that bet?

He's been fine. .855 OPS.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager
« Reply #12: April 28, 2022, 01:15:37 PM »
He's had a miserable homestand.  It's the longest slump I've seen.  Still draws walks but he's not hitting balls in the air.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager
« Reply #13: April 28, 2022, 01:19:09 PM »
He has 3 RBIs after 20 games. How much money would you have lost on that bet?

He's been fine. .855 OPS.
He has that OPS because everyone is walking him. Unless he shows hencan hit, he's gonna get challenged soon. Literally no one else in this lineup is worth challenging

Offline Smithian

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Re: Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager
« Reply #14: April 28, 2022, 01:23:17 PM »
He has that OPS because everyone is walking him. Unless he shows hencan hit, he's gonna get challenged soon. Literally no one else in this lineup is worth challenging
Dropping Cruz behind Bell will give Soto some protection.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Soto - Ted the player, not Ted the manager
« Reply #15: April 28, 2022, 01:47:18 PM »
Dropping Cruz behind Bell will give Soto some protection.
Doubt


Offline Smithian

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Soto had three hits yesterday. The four hitters infront of him, counting #7-9 in order, had six hits between them and he still didn't have an RBI.

He's had a difficult and statistically odd season.

Offline English Natsie

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Are we seeing signs that Soto is a technically gifted, rather than a Great Player? This is the first time, since coming to the Majors, that he's on a non-competitive team, has an enormous weight of expectation upon his shoulders, is the 'Face Of The Franchise', and has contract shenanigans rumbling away in the background. Under that pressure, it is, perhaps, understandable that he would crumble somewhat - he is still pretty young. Will he remain a 'fair-weather' player, or will he demonstrate that he is truly a Great Player - by which I mean, one who puts up the performance, season-in, season-out, regardless of circumstances ('I call M Trout, Your Honor.'..).

The problem, for the Nats, is that if he proves to be somewhat fair-weather then, come trade-time, we could look rather foolish. Imagine that ( for arguments sake) he joined the Yankees. Freed from the responsibilities of being a National, and on a contending team, the old Soto returns. 'How could the Nats have let him go?', they'll all say - but we'll know that we might never have seen that Soto again, unless the Nats could quickly build a contending team, to relieve him of the pressure he now faces.

Will this season always be remembered as 'The Testing Of Juan Soto'?... ;)

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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I think his performance in 2020 and 2021 shows he can put his numbers up on bad teams. The one thing Frandsen has pointed out and I think is correct is he trying to pull too much. He started to go up the middle more during the SF series. Pulling may have been deliberate, perhaps trying to hit to right as a #2 hitter. I just hope he hits more naturally and has given up on changing how he hits

Offline English Natsie

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I think his performance in 2020 and 2021 shows he can put his numbers up on bad teams

Fair comment - although, in those years, he still had the likes of Trey and Max to share the weight of expectation. This is the first full season it's been Soto and...erm...

Offline nfotiu

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He started last year slumping too.  I remember him not being able to get a ball off the ground for the first month or so.   He didn't actually get really going until we were out of it.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Quote
Only 35.8 percent of the pitches he’s seen in 2022 have been in the zone, the lowest percentage of his career. Last season, that figure was about 42 percent, and for his career the rate of strikes thrown to Soto has been 40.3 percent.

Since he’s seeing fewer strikes than in the past, Soto might be inclined to chase more pitches -- something he didn’t used to do much. . Last year, Soto had a mind-boggling 15.5 percent chase percentage, but that number has jumped to 22.9 percent this year. That rate isn’t bad by any means; it’s still good enough for 15th in the majors.

But it’s Soto’s highest since 2019. His career chase percentage is 20.4 percent, about 10 percentage points lower than the league average.
...
Soto has been connecting on fewer strikes this year — his 83.1 contact percentage in the strike zone is the lowest of his career.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/05/12/juan-soto-chasing-pitches/

Offline Slateman

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I refuse to believe Ted Williams was this poor of a baserunner

Offline DPMOmaha

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I refuse to believe Ted Williams was this poor of a baserunner
That's probably true. But I also don't know how aggressive a baserunner he would have been. He only stole 24 bases in his 19 year career.