2022 first year player draft

[Kevrock]

Throw the pool at Jones if he gets to 5 man lol

But that’s the opposite of what Callis and MLB are saying about Termarr. Their take emerged after the combine where they talked to him.

[RD]

I dont see any way that the top guys dont sign. There is too much at risk to not sign if you are taken in the top 5. This is a down year for pitchers at the top. Any other year, and you're going to have arms battling at the top, even if you have success. Of course, if you struggle, youve cost yourself millions. Maybe someone slides and decides to go to school, but if theyre taken in the top 5, theyre signing.

Im not sure what to think of Parada. Hes a legit hitter. But how good? Does he stick at catcher? To  me, the best asset with him is hes a safer pick because hes a college kid, and if C fails, he can play 1b. But, if he's a 1b, is he worth #5? I dont think hed be a terrible pick at 5, but put me in the camp that would be a little disappointed if hes taken over the high school guys, Collier, and Lee. I dont think hes the same caliber of prospect Andrew Vaughn or Spencer Torkelson were as 1b. If he were, and theres at least a chance he sticks at C, why isn't he the 1-1? If you want to argue the O's and Pirates have recent picks at C, doesn't the same argument apply with us and Ruiz? And back to grading him as a 1b ... to me, Brooks Lee is a better hitter, period. So if you're going the "safe" route, why isn't the pick Lee? Hes sticking on the dirt somewhere. Even if you graded both as 1b's, Im taking Lee. If Parada, sticks at C, is he a fast riser? Catchers tend to take more time to develop anyway, and hes a guy who only played 2 years in college and needs a lot of work. If he reaches the best version of himself, he probably still takes 3-4 years to make it. There's nothing wrong with that, but its not the fast riser he's pegged as. I dont want to say that Parada is a terrible pick, but there is a safer pick, and guys with more upside out there.

Ive seen Johnson passed on by us, and I wonder why. If he's just a 2b, weve seen guys like Altuve and Albies succeed without ideal size. I know he's a SS, but Wander Franco is a stud and isn't much bigger. The dude can rake, and its not like he's totally positionless. He has options to be a productive defender. Hes hit everywhere hes gone, with wood, against big time talent. I guess the only reason is, people have talked about him so long, and he doesn't jump out at you physically. So maybe some get cold feet at the last minute, dreaming big on potential?

I think Jones is the cream of the crop this year, but the next 5 could be ranked in any order depending on the day. Holliday, Green, Johnson, Lee, and Collier. Then its Parada for me at 7. I think all are good players but a couple obviously have superstar potential. Go get the best player that you think can have the biggest impact. Don't go the safe route, or the guy you think can move the quickest.

[Slateman]

So .... basically .... no one wants the Nats to take Parada at #5

[Natsinpwc]

Well I hope they take Parada just to see you guys meltdown.

How did the board react when they selected Rendon. I recall skepticism elsewhere about that pick.

[Slateman]

Well I hope they take Parada just to see you guys meltdown.

How did the board react when they selected Rendon. I recall skepticism elsewhere about that pick.

Concern about his shoulder, but he was the best hitter in the draft. No one was doubting that.

[Kevrock]

I was ecstatic when Rendon fell to us. Not sure about others.

[Kevrock]

Here is us celebrating Rendon for reference

https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=22890.175

That was a fun draft. There were concerns about Rendon’s shoulder but no one anticipated a slide to 6. Most of us were rooting for one of the college arms, Hultzen or Bauer. There was also a CLEAR Top 6 (like this year) and we were drafting sixth. But if you look outside if that Top 6 now, you see players like Lindor.

[Slateman]

I kinda want the Nats to take Rocker if Johnson, Holliday, and Jones are off the board. Take him, rush him up to the majors, and see if we can catch fire with a rotation of Rocker, Cavalli, and Gray

[RD]

Well I hope they take Parada just to see you guys meltdown.

How did the board react when they selected Rendon. I recall skepticism elsewhere about that pick.

I loved the Rendon pick. It's one of those things where scouts just tried too hard. Rendon was a stud and him falling too us was great.

As far as Parada, hes got a shot to be really good. It's not like we'd be taking a 2nd rounder to save money. Even with a little disappointment, it doesn't mean it's a horrible pick. He could still be really good. He could fall to 8 or 9 and end the top player in the draft for all we know. I just think on draft day, there are guys that have the potential to make a bigger impact and we should go after those guys first.

[RD]

I kinda want the Nats to take Rocker if Johnson, Holliday, and Jones are off the board. Take him, rush him up to the majors, and see if we can catch fire with a rotation of Rocker, Cavalli, and Gray

I have no idea what to think about Rocker. The stuff appears to be back, by all reports he looks good, appears healthy, and even sounds like he's tightened up his mechanics. I've seen rankings with him in the 30s and beyond. That's crazy to me. I dont know if I'd consider him at 5 with the expected bats available but he also shouldn't fall down that far either. I'd think the Angels, Padres and Phillies would jump in the top 20 to potentially find a rotation cornerstone, maybe even some immediate relief help.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

RD - thanks for your thoughts. Hope all is well. 

My feeling is has been the top Nats pick will signal something about the length of the anticipated rebuild, with the college hitters maybe 1-2 years away (especially if they are moved off of positions that take longer to develop, like catcher), while the high school players are probably more on 3+ year track and more likely to play with House and next year's top pick than Soto.  Am I wrong about the time frames, or do you see somebody like Johnson being able to take over a position (say, second base) in a shorter time frame? 

[Natsinpwc]

Here is us celebrating Rendon for reference

https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=22890.175

That was a fun draft. There were concerns about Rendon’s shoulder but no one anticipated a slide to 6. Most of us were rooting for one of the college arms, Hultzen or Bauer. There was also a CLEAR Top 6 (like this year) and we were drafting sixth. But if you look outside if that Top 6 now, you see players like Lindor.

Thanks.

[Natsinpwc]

I loved the Rendon pick. It's one of those things where scouts just tried too hard. Rendon was a stud and him falling too us was great.

As far as Parada, hes got a shot to be really good. It's not like we'd be taking a 2nd rounder to save money. Even with a little disappointment, it doesn't mean it's a horrible pick. He could still be really good. He could fall to 8 or 9 and end the top player in the draft for all we know. I just think on draft day, there are guys that have the potential to make a bigger impact and we should go after those guys first.

Thanks for the response.

[Slateman]

The big concern over Rendon was his shoulder. He hurt it and spent most of his Junior year as a DH. It was uncertain whether or not he would be able to go back to third base.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-july-13-2022?

Mayo's mock.  Has Parada going #3 (after Jones and Holliday), and Johnson going #4, the Nats would have the choice of Elijah Green or Brooks Lee. He has the Nats taking Green. Lee 6th, Collier #7.

[Slateman]

Green is interesting. A lot of talk about his swing and miss. But IMG plays a lot of talented teams with some impressive pitching.

[RD]

RD - thanks for your thoughts. Hope all is well. 

My feeling is has been the top Nats pick will signal something about the length of the anticipated rebuild, with the college hitters maybe 1-2 years away (especially if they are moved off of positions that take longer to develop, like catcher), while the high school players are probably more on 3+ year track and more likely to play with House and next year's top pick than Soto.  Am I wrong about the time frames, or do you see somebody like Johnson being able to take over a position (say, second base) in a shorter time frame? 

It's always hard to tell. I'd say you're right on the general time frames. High school kids have to get use to the grind of playing every day and being away from home. It's impossible to predict how they handle that. But that first full year can have a lot of ups and downs, so it may not be til full year #2 that you begin to see how quickly they could move. Certainly High schoolers take longer than college.

But, look at the '19 draft. JJ Bleday was a college guy taken before Riley Greene and CJ Abrams. Those two have reached the bigs faster, even with the 2020 season a bit different. The 2020 draft, Zac Veen and Robert Hassell have both had quite a bit of early success. They may reach AA this year, but will certainly begin there next year. That, at least in theory, could have them on the door step of the bigs in '23. Austin Martin, a college guy taken ahead of both,  is a level up at AA but hasn't had anywhere near the success they have had, and I wouldn't say he's a lock to get the call before them.

Anyway, I understand the premise of college guys being faster. It makes sense. I'm just saying, you never know. Elite talent tends to find a way, regardless of age. I do think someone like Johnson, or Holliday, or Jones could rise fast. But hard to tell how fast.

Of course, if they feel Parada is more Vaughn/Tork(who made it after one full season in the minors), that's about as fast as you can hope. I dont think hes quite that level, and to move fast, he'd be moved off C. So I hope they truly believe in his bat over the other guys. If we're going the faster route, I'd put Lee ahead of Parada. Just my preference. I can understand simply liking Lee more than Green or Johnson. I dont think Id agree with simply liking Parada more than the others.

[Kevrock]

Dude we go Lee in that scenario. He is college, will stay on the dirt, and has a slight edge on Parada. He’ll be to the majors within Rizzo’s reboot vision. Home run selection given our supposed timeline.

Green is interesting and wouldn’t hate him if it’s Green/Parada/Collier still on the board.

[RD]

Dude we go Lee in that scenario. He is college, will stay on the dirt, and has a slight edge on Parada. He’ll be to the majors within Rizzo’s reboot vision. Home run selection given our supposed timeline.

Green is interesting and wouldn’t hate him if it’s Green/Parada/Collier still on the board.

I like Green a lot despite the obvious swing and miss potential. He's got more risk as a result but he's also got better physical tools than anyone else. If he hits his ceiling, he's the best player in the draft. While the jury is still out, theres a lot of Jo Adell in Green. Adell had swing and miss issues and didn't have an elite hit tool but he adjusted quicker than expected. Yes, Adell has struggled with K's but I think the Angels have really screwed with his development. House had some swing and miss issues as well as a senior but I think we're happy with him(despite an obvious up and down year this year). Sometimes guys with big names have their holes over.magnified leading up to the draft. I think something similar is happening with Termarr on some boards. Anyway, there is real risk involved for sure. But there's dreaming of an elite OF and I think with his talent and makeup, he's a big leaguer. Even without reaching stardom, a rich man's Adolis Garcia isn't a bad outcome.

[Kevrock]

Absolutely. I am just high on Lee and an advanced college hitter seems like a Rizzo desire.

[Kevrock]

Here are the BA grades on some of these guys btw

Elijah Green
Hitting: 50
Power: 70
Run: 70
Fielding: 55
Arm: 60

Termarr Johnson
Hitting: 70
Power: 60
Run: 45
Fielding: 50
Arm: 50

Brooks Lee
Hitting: 70
Power: 50
Run: 40
Fielding: 50
ARm: 55

Lee is a switch hitter, btw

[Slateman]

So we are all agreement. Meet at Salt Line at 1700 for PCC and PCIs, in position by 1830 launch infiltration at 1832, render front office incapacitated by 1900, and submit Rocker as our draft pick.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Here are the BA grades on some of these guys btw

Elijah Green
Hitting: 50
Power: 70
Run: 70
Fielding: 55
Arm: 60

Termarr Johnson
Hitting: 70
Power: 60
Run: 45
Fielding: 50
Arm: 50

Brooks Lee
Hitting: 70
Power: 50
Run: 40
Fielding: 50
ARm: 55

Lee is a switch hitter, btw

I don't know enough about these guys to know whether those grades are inflated or not, but nobody with a realistic shot of attaining a 70/50 or 70/60 offensive profile should ever go outside the top 5, especially a switch hitter.   

That offense is enough hitting to be a perennial all-star at any position, including DH - 70/60 is basically late-20s Joey Votto or 2020-21 Soto.  Anyone with a non-inflated version of that profile who has a reasonable shot to stick at any position besides LF or 1B and falls to 5 is a must-draft almost regardless of what else is there.

[Kevrock]

Well, they are potential ratings (if you're familiar with OOTP you know the risk especially with high schoolers) but that's why so many people are so high on Termarr. There are risk grades, most are "High" with Elijah Green being "Extreme" despite his toolset.

MLB Pipeline is the biggest cheerleader for Termarr but BA published this gem: "Johnson manipulates his bat from the left side of the plate like a magic wand, equally capable of turning on mid-90s velocity and showing 60-grade power to his pull side or sitting back and slapping the ball the other way."

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't know enough about these guys to know whether those grades are inflated or not, but nobody with a realistic shot of attaining a 70/50 or 70/60 offensive profile should ever go outside the top 5, especially a switch hitter.   

That offense is enough hitting to be a perennial all-star at any position, including DH - 70/60 is basically late-20s Joey Votto or 2020-21 Soto.  Anyone with a non-inflated version of that profile who has a reasonable shot to stick at any position besides LF or 1B and falls to 5 is a must-draft almost regardless of what else is there.

just to go full circle on you, the ratings I think KevRock  posted had Parada 65 Hit, 60 Power   Not 70/60, but . . .

https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=39813.75;msg=2253735