BA's July Mock is out.
1
Orioles
Druw Jones
Wesleyan HS, Norcross, Ga.OF
Notes:
Total Bonus Pool: $16,924,000
Pick Slot Value: $8,842,200
The same group of names continue to be linked to the Orioles, with no one having much confidence in which direction Mike Elias is leaning for the No. 1 pick. That group seems to include Druw Jones, Jackson Holliday, Elijah Green, Termarr Johnson, Brooks Lee and Jacob Berry. I haven’t heard Berry’s name linked quite as much lately but I am assuming he is still solidly in the mix of players Baltimore is thinking about.
My gut tells me this is going to be a high school player, but I will reiterate my comments from the previous mock draft: I have low confidence in what Baltimore is going to do and don’t expect to have much in the way of clarity moving forward. This is how it operates up top. Jones feels like the most likely pick considering he’s the best player in the class, so he’s the pick for now.
With almost $2 million more in pool money than the No. 2 team (D-backs) do the Orioles really need to cut a deal with the first pick to get creative later? I don’t think so. They will have a lot of money to work with regardless.
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2
Diamondbacks
Jackson Holliday
Stillwater (Okla.) HSSS
Notes:
Total Bonus Pool: $15,112,100
Pick Slot Value: $8,185,100
If Jones goes No. 1 I think Arizona would select from a group that includes Holliday, Termarr Johnson, Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee and Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada. If Johnson doesn’t go in this spot, there’s a chance he could wind up more in the 6-8 range than with one of the teams picking in the 3-5 hole. The industry seems pretty confident that Jackson Holliday goes among the first three picks and because of that I’m making him the pick for Arizona here—although again, we heard this same sort of chatter with Marcelo Mayer a year ago and he slipped to No. 4.
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3
Rangers
Elijah Green
IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla.OF
Notes:
Total Bonus Pool: $9,640,700
Pick Slot Value: $7,587,600
This feels like the floor for Jackson Holliday based on how much the Rangers seem to like him. He doesn’t make it to their pick in this mock, so they will have to settle for the biggest pure upside player in the class in Elijah Green. I still wouldn’t be surprised if Texas goes for one of the best college prospects on the board in Brooks Lee or Kevin Parada and both are available here.
Both Brooks Lee and Kevin Parada make plenty of sense in that regard and it would be surprising if they aren’t options here.
Most chatter seems to indicate that both Jackson Holliday and Druw Jones will be off the board among the first three picks—though keep in mind, that was the thought with Marcelo Mayer even on draft day in 2021.
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4
Pirates
Cam Collier
Chipola (Fla.) JC3B
Notes:
Total Bonus Pool: $13,733,900
Pick Slot Value: $7,002,100
Collier has plenty of buzz and increasingly looks like a lock to go inside the top 10 picks. There are a few teams picking towards the back of the top 10 who are enamored with Collier, but Pittsburgh has been doing plenty of work on the 17-year-old pure hitter as well and he sounds like an increasingly legitimate option at No. 4.
It sounds like the Pirates have been doing some work on Pennsylvania high school shortstop Cole Young as well, but this spot seems high for him considering the players available. Pittsburgh does have the fourth-largest bonus pool (behind the Orioles, D-backs and Mets) at $13,733,900 so they have the financial muscle to get a bit creative.
Whether that’s forcing a player they prefer past the Rangers at No. 3 (No. 14 bonus pool at $9,640,700), spreading money around their draft pool a la 2021 or playing things straight up remains to be seen.
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5
Nationals
Kevin Parada
Georgia TechC
Notes:
Total Bonus Pool: $11,007,900
Pick Slot Value: $6,494,300
Parada has happened to fall into the five-spot with the Nationals in back-to-back mock drafts. It’s very hard to put any other player in this spot here given how the board has developed and the chatter in the industry that has linked Parada to Washington. The talent fits here, it sounds like Washington higher ups were spending a lot of time on the backstop and there’s no other option that makes more sense in my opinion. I won’t overcomplicate things.
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6
Marlins
Termarr Johnson
Mays HS, AtlantaSS
Notes:
Total Bonus Pool: $10,486,000
Pick Slot Value: $6,034,300
The best pure hitter in the class has a few potential landing spots in this range on the board and in this mock we have the Marlins scooping up a talent that could have easily gone sooner—similar to a year ago with Kahlil Watson, though the two are very different players.
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7
Cubs
Brooks Lee
Cal PolySS
Notes:
Total Bonus Pool: $10,092,700
Pick Slot Value: $5,708,000
This could be a bummer scenario for the Cubs, as both Collier and Johnson come off the board in front of them. It sounds like the Cubs are high on both lefthanded bats and if either fell to them they would probably scoop them up. Collier has been mentioned most frequently at this spot and more recently with Pittsburgh at four. With neither available we have the Cubs taking another polished, pure hitter in Brooks Lee.
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8
Twins
Jacob Berry
Louisiana State1B/3B
Notes:
Total Bonus Pool: $10,036,000
Pick Slot Value: $5,439,500
If both Termarr Johnson and Cam Collier make it to the Cubs in front of the Twins, perhaps Minnesota would grab whichever of the two Chicago doesn’t take. That’s not an option in this mock, however, and Jacob Berry and Gavin Cross are consistently mentioned in this range on the board. Would Minnesota pass on a college player and instead take a shot on a high school bat like Jett Williams or Justin Crawford? Those are other names who could make sense here.
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9
Royals
Gavin Cross
Virginia TechOF
Notes:
Total Bonus Pool: $11,668,300
Pick Slot Value: $5,200,200
We’re playing it safer with Kansas City in this spot than our previous mock, when we put Henry Bolte here. Cross has plenty of power and a bat that falls to this spot still feels more likely than dipping into the pitching pool.
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10
Rockies
Jace Jung
Texas Tech2B
Notes:
Total Bonus Pool: $13,660,700
Pick Slot Value: $4,980,400
Of the players mocked inside the top 10 picks, Jung seems most likely to slide thanks to some bad looks down the stretch. Still, he seems like the exact sort of player who gets moved up a board once a full room of scouts sits down and looks over his collegiate production, which is exceptional: .328/.468 /.647, 39 home runs, 32 doubles and 126 walks (19.9 BB%) to 102 strikeouts (16.1 K%). There’s something to say for taking a safe college hitter at the top of the draft and Jung hits for average, has great on-base skills and has power—while hitting lefthanded and sticking on the infield. I suppose I am still skeptical of how far that package of skills falls and think he goes in a pretty good spot on draft day.
