Author Topic: Follow the Prospects: Brady House, SS  (Read 13669 times)

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Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Brady House, SS
« Reply #125: August 08, 2022, 03:28:32 PM »
never heard a peep about something physical causing him to drop in the draft.  I wonder if we were the last to know, or whether this was a classic Rizzo "we can work around the medical issue for a high end talent."  That's worked before.

Online welch

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Re: Follow the Prospects: Brady House, SS
« Reply #126: September 16, 2022, 08:29:53 AM »
Any news about House? Last I have seen is that he won't play the rest of the season, but no guess of when he will play again.

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Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #127: September 25, 2022, 09:47:24 PM »
Looks like we have our shortstop of the future. I wonder if they can move Brady House to third.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #128: September 25, 2022, 10:07:26 PM »
Looks like we have our shortstop of the future. I wonder if they can move Brady House to third.
Brady who?

Offline Smithian

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #129: September 25, 2022, 10:21:13 PM »
Looks like we have our shortstop of the future. I wonder if they can move Brady House to third.
Don't worry too much about Brady House or any prospect until he’s at least in AA.

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #130: September 26, 2022, 11:30:34 PM »
Don't worry too much about Brady House or any prospect until he’s at least in AA.

He's the 5th rated Nats prospect and was first or second before the Soto trade. He's projected to hit the majors the year after next. Abrams isn't going anywhere. Why not give him time at third next year. Worked pretty well for Machado.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #131: September 26, 2022, 11:36:34 PM »
He's the 5th rated Nats prospect and was first or second before the Soto trade. He's projected to hit the majors the year after next. Abrams isn't going anywhere. Why not give him time at third next year. Worked pretty well for Machado.
He played in Single A this year and missed the last two months of the year with a mysterious back ailment.  He will probably have to start Single A again next year.   

Offline Smithian

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #132: September 27, 2022, 10:31:23 AM »
He's the 5th rated Nats prospect and was first or second before the Soto trade. He's projected to hit the majors the year after next. Abrams isn't going anywhere. Why not give him time at third next year. Worked pretty well for Machado.
I thought he would be a Top 25 prospect in baseball before one day he vanished.

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #133: September 27, 2022, 11:24:17 AM »
House is a huge question mark right now. Best case is that he starts next year in A+ and is healthy, and arrives in the majors in 2024.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #134: September 27, 2022, 04:21:23 PM »
House is a huge question mark right now. Best case is that he starts next year in A+ and is healthy, and arrives in the majors in 2024.
that's sort of a hyper best case.  GCL then Fredericksburg, and if that's well, close at Wilmington.

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #135: September 27, 2022, 04:26:02 PM »
that's sort of a hyper best case.  GCL then Fredericksburg, and if that's well, close at Wilmington.

if he's healthy i imagine he starts in Wilmington at high A. If not, who knows. He was doing well at low-A, so no need to keep him there especially since the plan was for him to work out this off-season at Ft. Myers.

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #136: September 27, 2022, 07:38:42 PM »
The Nats project House to arrive in the majors the year after next. If you're confident in Abrams what's the downside of playing him at third next year. If he hits and can play third you have a young left side of the infield for the next 5 years.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #137: September 27, 2022, 07:47:16 PM »
The Nats project House to arrive in the majors the year after next. If you're confident in Abrams what's the downside of playing him at third next year. If he hits and can play third you have a young left side of the infield for the next 5 years.
I've also seen projections from this summer saying that his ETA was 2026.  He's starting next year at < 20 years of age and coming off an injury that knocked out half a season.  I suspect they will not push him and have him penciled in anytime before late 2024, more likely 2025.  I don't think they move him off SS until 2024 at the earliest.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/washington-nationals-top-29-prospects-2022/

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #138: September 27, 2022, 10:05:16 PM »
The Nats project House to arrive in the majors the year after next. If you're confident in Abrams what's the downside of playing him at third next year. If he hits and can play third you have a young left side of the infield for the next 5 years.

He just turned 19 over the summer and has a total of 61 games as a pro.  The chances of a guy with that profile playing in the majors in 2 years, let alone at a position he's never played, are vanishingly small.   

I don't understand prospect services' estimates of guys' arrival dates.  If you pencil them out, you'll see they project the majors as being perpetually full of 20- and 21-year-old rookies.  How many 21-year-olds played in the majors this year?  Maybe 15, exactly four of whom were on opening day rosters.  How about 20-year-olds? I think the answer to that might be zero. 

I mean, heck, MLB - which has recently gotten much better about this after having been so bad in the past that they deleted their old ETA projections - still has an ETA on Hassell of 2023.  Dude has a total of 108 PAs in AA, during which he looked overmatched.  They project Noelvi Marte - one of the guys in the Luis Castillo trade, who is 20, has never played above high-A, and is blocked by two top-100 prospects at his position plus a former top prospect presently flopping but not out of runway on that org's MLB team - as arriving in 2023.  What about either of those situations suggests a guy who will play in the majors next year?

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #139: September 27, 2022, 10:11:37 PM »
Think maybe y'all might wanna hold off on projecting House until he can play a season without a bav back injury that takes 6 months to heal.

Online Slateman

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #140: September 27, 2022, 10:14:46 PM »
 
I mean, heck, MLB - which has recently gotten much better about this after having been so bad in the past that they deleted their old ETA projections - still has an ETA on Hassell of 2023.  Dude has a total of 108 PAs in AA, during which he looked overmatched.  They project Noelvi Marte - one of the guys in the Luis Castillo trade, who is 20, has never played above high-A, and is blocked by two top-100 prospects at his position plus a former top prospect presently flopping but not out of runway on that org's MLB team - as arriving in 2023.  What about either of those situations suggests a guy who will play in the majors next year?

Well Marte has 200+ minor league games under his belt and has actually hit well above rookie ball.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #141: September 28, 2022, 08:54:08 AM »
Frankly, it's much more realistic to project House as Abrams replacement when we deal Abrams in 3-4 years for prospects than it is to project them playing side-by-side next season.

Online imref

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #142: September 28, 2022, 09:18:10 AM »
Frankly, it's much more realistic to project House as Abrams replacement when we deal Abrams in 3-4 years for prospects than it is to project them playing side-by-side next season.
:(

Offline Smithian

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #143: September 28, 2022, 09:51:14 AM »
Frankly, it's much more realistic to project House as Abrams replacement when we deal Abrams in 3-4 years for prospects than it is to project them playing side-by-side next season.
This is the most worst post ever made on WNFF.

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #144: September 28, 2022, 10:10:27 AM »
This is the most worst post ever made on WNFF.
Right. Cus House is going to third. Cruz is Abrams replacement in 3-4 years when we trade him

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #145: September 28, 2022, 10:52:34 AM »
Right. Cus House is going to third. Cruz is Abrams replacement in 3-4 years when we trade him
Let's make it a shiner post and say, "we got Ruiz and Gray for Turner and a pitcher with an expiring contract.  We should be able to get so much more for Abrams when we deal him in 3-4 years."

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #146: September 28, 2022, 11:07:59 AM »
Too depressing even for me, who projects Soto to the Mets. We just got a franchise SS ffs, stop theory craft trading him ty

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #147: September 28, 2022, 03:27:13 PM »
Well Marte has 200+ minor league games under his belt and has actually hit well above rookie ball.

Sure, he's an excellent prospect. But he's still raw defensively and has two more advanced legit SS prospects ahead of him, one of whom was a first-round pick who OPSed over .800 in a full AA season this year and the other of whom hit .305/.357/.553 in a half season at AA, has legitimate 70-grade speed, and is younger than Marte.  Those aren't guys they're just going to clear out of his path to allow a 2023 debut. 

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #148: September 28, 2022, 06:23:33 PM »
This is not my prediction House will be in the majors in 2024, it's the Nats. Maybe they'll change it, but they haven't at this point. If he's ready in 2024 or 2025 and is the top player they project him to be he's going to need a position to play. Moving a player around the infield is done all the time when you're trying to get as many of your young players on the field as possible that you think will be a part of your future.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Re: CJ Abrams: Our new man in the middle
« Reply #149: September 28, 2022, 08:44:35 PM »
This is not my prediction House will be in the majors in 2024, it's the Nats. Maybe they'll change it, but they haven't at this point. If he's ready in 2024 or 2025 and is the top player they project him to be he's going to need a position to play. Moving a player around the infield is done all the time when you're trying to get as many of your young players on the field as possible that you think will be a part of your future.

Then they, not you, are insane.

They have a long history of bringing up guys before they are ready.  They also have a long history of many of those guys struggling and falling well short in the long term.  Robles and Kieboom are the two most prominent ones, but it's hard to say what effect being up too soon had on Garcia, too early to say what effect it had on Adon, impossible to say if it would have ruined Giolito if he hadn't been traded.  Soto was Soto.

The dude has what seems to be a serious back injury and put up good, not great numbers in low-A. 

This isn't directed at you - you seem to have a decent perspective - but I think a lot of people need to get their heads around where the Nats system is compared to actual good minor league systems and top-end talent and production and what that means in terms of promotion potential.  For a guy in House's position, a great 2023 would consist of staying healthy, playing decent SS, and OPSing .850 or so mostly in high-A, with - if everything breaks right - a cup of coffee in AA to end the year.  The next year would be split between AA and a bit of AAA, again if all goes pretty well.  There would be no thought to him being in Washington prior to late 2025, at which point he would still only be 22.  Hitting well is hard.  Playing infield well is hard.  Doing both in the majors at 22 is damn near impossible.   

There is only one Juan Soto.  There are many more Carter Kiebooms, Nick Senzels, and Lastings Milledges.  Rushing guys through the minors is more often than not a really, really bad idea.