So basically, the argument FP is making is that Henley should send Adams because of the low odds of Stras getting a hit. That argument only makes sense if there is a reasonable chance of scoring. You would have to be blind to think that Adams was going to score there unless the Dodgers defense failed to make routine throws. We actually know the odds of Stras getting a hit based upon his stats. It may not be high, but it seems higher than the chances of Adams scoring. That is one reason that send is stupid. The other reason is that if you can pretty much bet that you are giving up the third out at home, you may as well let the pitcher bat to turn the lineup over. If he wants to talk about low odds of the pitcher getting a hit, he should factor in the low odds of scoring when he leads off the next inning.