Author Topic: June 14-23 homestand .... is this the season?  (Read 1614 times)

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Online Slateman

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They have four games at home against the Diamondbacks,  4 against the Phillies, and 3 against the Braves.

Is this the season right here? D-backs are a good team, and the Phillies and Braves are at the top of your division.

You have a bad couple weeks and the Nats will be right back at 10 games back. On the other hand, do well, and you could gain significant ground on both your division leaders and the wild card, leading right into a favorable schedule where you play some bad teams (Miami twice, Detroit, and KC)

Offline UMDNats

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This is the make-or-break time of the season. The team can talk in platitudes of "we're still in it and playing well over the last 6 weeks" if we go .500 or slightly better, but we'll be effectively out of it if we don't win 7 or 8 of the games, especially the final 7 against the Braves and Phillies. Have to win 5 of those 7, period.

I'd hope that we do come out and perform (the offense as a whole has been really great recently), but if we do not, I hope Rizzo is ready to sell all throughout July. No reason to wait around with false hope.

Offline Truconfidence

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They have four games at home against the Diamondbacks,  4 against the Phillies, and 3 against the Braves.

Is this the season right here? D-backs are a good team, and the Phillies and Braves are at the top of your division.

You have a bad couple weeks and the Nats will be right back at 10 games back. On the other hand, do well, and you could gain significant ground on both your division leaders and the wild card, leading right into a favorable schedule where you play some bad teams (Miami twice, Detroit, and KC)
yes it is. need to finish at least 6-5 in my opinion to not think about blowing it up. As you stated right before the break we have 13 games against teams we should go 9-4 to 10-3 at least. Also at alot depends on the Braves Phillies series. If the Braves win that series, we still have 17 games with them. I want them to be on top.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Go 8-3, losing no more than 1 per series, and we are back at .500 and will have head to head picked up 2 on the Phils and 1 on the Braves.  That's probably what we need.  6-5 probably does not do the trick.  I'm not even sure a split with the Phillies is survivable.

Online Slateman

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yes it is. need to finish at least 6-5 in my opinion to not think about blowing it up. As you stated right before the break we have 13 games against teams we should go 9-4 to 10-3 at least. Also at alot depends on the Braves Phillies series. If the Braves win that series, we still have 17 games with them. I want them to be on top.
If we only go 6-5, we have to blow it up. That's simply not good enough.

Offline dracnal

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If we only go 6-5, we have to blow it up. That's simply not good enough.

About the only way I could see that working is if all six wins were against the Braves and Phillies. Yes it'd suck to drop four to Arizona, but proving we could outplay the Phillies and Braves would be good with as many games remain, especially with the Braves.

Offline imref

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I think the season ended when we got swept by the Mets, but I hope to be wrong.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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About the only way I could see that working is if all six wins were against the Braves and Phillies. Yes it'd suck to drop four to Arizona, but proving we could outplay the Phillies and Braves would be good with as many games remain, especially with the Braves.

If we drop all four to Arizona, it's over.  I can't imagine doing that at home and anyone having any realistic thought of the playoffs.

Offline dracnal

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If we drop all four to Arizona, it's over.  I can't imagine doing that at home and anyone having any realistic thought of the playoffs.

Oh I totally agree it's terrible. But if we're going to get 6 wins, I'd rather it be against the division.  FWIW I'm in the 8-3 camp as being about the only hope.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Oh I totally agree it's terrible. But if we're going to get 6 wins, I'd rather it be against the division.  FWIW I'm in the 8-3 camp as being about the only hope.

I'm with you on all that, but I can't see the second sentence happening if the homestand opens with a sweep. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Realistically, they have to get out of nowhere comatose phase, which means dominant streaks , not 6-5.

Offline Air Desmond

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The goal should be to be within 4 games of 1st place at the end of homestand.

Offline dracnal

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I'm with you on all that, but I can't see the second sentence happening if the homestand opens with a sweep.

Yeah that’s likely true. Getting destroyed for four and then turning it around seems rough. But they kinda did this after that ridiculous Mets four game swee.

Honestly, I think they are too brittle to get even a wildcard this year. I hope I am wrong but I don’t have that much hope.

Online DCFan

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I think the season ended when we got swept by the Mets, but I hope to be wrong.

+1

Offline aspenbubba

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+1
I think the season ended when we got swept by the Mets, but I hope to be wrong.
+2. I said this after being swept. If we go 8-3 and beat up on the teams after the homestand we might have a bit of salvation. Corbin is key for the SP and the offence needs to keep rolling.

Offline rileyn

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At minimum, must win 3/4 vs AZ, 3/4 vs Phil, and 2/3 vs Atlanta.  8-3.

Online Slateman

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I think the season ended when we got swept by the Mets, but I hope to be wrong.
I have a feeling you're right, but the Phillies stumbling like they did has kept the door open.

At minimum, must win 3/4 vs AZ, 3/4 vs Phil, and 2/3 vs Atlanta.  8-3.
I could live with 7-4. But anything less and Rizzo has to sell.

Offline PowerBoater69

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We'll win 5-7 games and be in virtually the same position at the end of the home stand as we are in today. Don't expect a dramatic and definitive answer on whether this team should look to contend or start selling.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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We'll win 5-7 games and be in virtually the same position at the end of the home stand as we are in today. Don't expect a dramatic and definitive answer on whether this team should look to contend or start selling.
difference is, the calendar begins to be a factor.  Treading water puts us closer to the trade deadline.

Which reminds me, is there just one deadline this year?  There was talk about it.

Offline bluestreak

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difference is, the calendar begins to be a factor.  Treading water puts us closer to the trade deadline.

Which reminds me, is there just one deadline this year?  There was talk about it.

There just one this year: July 31

Online Slateman

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difference is, the calendar begins to be a factor.  Treading water puts us closer to the trade deadline.

Which reminds me, is there just one deadline this year?  There was talk about it.
Yep. July 31 is the only one this year.

Offline nfotiu

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I think the season ended when we got swept by the Mets, but I hope to be wrong.
It hurt a lot.  But we recovered fairly well.   12-5 since then.

I don't think 6-5 dooms the year.  It is too early to concern ourselves with the other NL East teams while it looks like no one is going to run away with it.  6-5 gives us a solid shot to get over .500 by the all star break.

.500 at the all star break means we went an impressive 26-14 since hitting rock bottom with the Mets sweep.   Keep that same pace up for the rest of the year and we're at 92 wins and pretty likely win the division.

I'm not buying that going 18-10 (as a result of going 6-5 this home stand) post Mets sweep makes us obvious sellers.  We don't have to worry about who we're beating or losing to until at least July.

Offline HalfSmokes

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It hurt a lot.  But we recovered fairly well.   12-5 since then.

I don't think 6-5 dooms the year.  It is too early to concern ourselves with the other NL East teams while it looks like no one is going to run away with it.  6-5 gives us a solid shot to get over .500 by the all star break.

.500 at the all star break means we went an impressive 26-14 since hitting rock bottom with the Mets sweep.   Keep that same pace up for the rest of the year and we're at 92 wins and pretty likely win the division.

I'm not buying that going 18-10 (as a result of going 6-5 this home stand) post Mets sweep makes us obvious sellers.  We don't have to worry about who we're beating or losing to until at least July.

At the end of this home stand, it’ll be a week away from July. It’s early transitions to its too late pretty quickly. I think they need to make up ground against the Phillies and braves by the end of the home stand, by beating them head to head or them having a rough stretch. 7 is already a lot to make up, putting another team in the middle makes it that much harder. If the Phillies have a strong couple of weeks and take the series against us it could be all but over, the same goes for the braves

Offline PowerBoater69

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difference is, the calendar begins to be a factor.  Treading water puts us closer to the trade deadline.

Which reminds me, is there just one deadline this year?  There was talk about it.

Sure, but if we pick up a game or two we'll still be in a hole chasing the Braves and Phillies, there will still be time to catch them, and there still won't be a clear direction on whether or not the team should buy or sell.

Offline UMDNats

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I'm still absolutely terrified about being 8-9 games out on July 31st and Mark Lerner telling Rizzo not to sell because he'll lose ticket sales in August and September.

After last year, he proved he didn't have a good grasp on the team's actual chances to contend and was too concerned with ticket sales compared to helping the organization long-term. To think he blocked a Harper trade because he wanted to re-sign him and then didn't really try to actually re-sign him is amazing to me.