The 2019 Blow It Up Thread

[bluestreak]

The Nats have gotten unlucky. People here hate to admit it, because they prefer to pin it all on the personal failings of various folks, but the Nats have been unlucky.

Every team that wins overcomes bad decisions and suboptimal performance. Cubs won in 2016 despite Maddon totally misusing Chapman. Giants won in 2012 despite Bochy totally misusing his rotation. The Nats just haven't gotten any luck. Yes, they have played poorly at times, but they've also gotten very, very unlucky. 

[HalfSmokes]

How many teams do that?

Of the 7 other teams that have more wins in the last decade than the Nationals do, three have won a WS, and five have made it to the WS. Seems like building teams successful in the regular season is the path to getting post-season success.

Exempt when it isn’t- i.e. the nats

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

So a report leaked out that the Yankees would do whatever it takes to get Scherzer. From there, because it's the Yankees, it's snowballed.

Since it's the blow it up thread, I would take the Yankees to the cleaners on this one. Severino and Frazier to start with. I'd probably ask for Florial too. And I want either Chad Green or Tommy Kahnle.

If you're trading Scherzer, you're listening on offers for Strasburg. The Padres, to me, are the ideal fit there. It's probably the only place we could trade him and have him immediately not opt out. If the Padres offer either MMacKenzie Gore or Luis Urias, you take that and run. But two of Logan Allen, Adrian Morejon, and Andersion Espinosa along with Xavier Edwards is more likely.

Once you've dealt Scherzer and Stras, next is Rendon. I'd love to have him long term, but right now, he doesn't seem that interested. Or if he is, he wants the max money, and since that means getting to compete in free agency, you may as well trade him. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2837492-top-mlb-trade-packages-to-land-nationals-superstar-anthony-rendon

I realize its Bleacher Report, but if the Phillies offer you Boehm, or the Rays offer you Brujan, you take that crap and run to the bank. I like the Rays offer better, so Rendon for Vidal Brujan and Shane Baz.

Then it's a matter of trading the rest of your players, with Doolittle being the headliner there.

You can go into next offseason with a ton of money avaiable and go sign Gerrit Cole to, well, basically, the same deal you gave Strasburg. Now you have a starting rotation that consists of Cole, Corbin, and Severino. That's a marginal drop off from what you had before, with a ton of salary free'd up to re-sign Rendon, or get the relievers you need. I honestly think Brujan is going to be MLB ready by June of next year. You couple him, Turner, and Robles in a lineup and you've got speed for days. First base and RF are a bit of a mystery. Ideally, Ryan Zimmerman retires, you move Soto to first base, and put Frazier in LF.  Florial slots in to RF in a couple years, so you can pick up Eaton's option for the 2020 season.

And what if Cole doesn't want to sign here?  What if Severino doesn't return to health and the 1 year he's shown to be a good pitcher?  It's foolish to part with Max when he's still in peak form pinning your hopes on what you laid out.  Even Strasburg is more of a bird in hand, and with today's pitching landscape, he's a top-15 pitcher in baseball.

[UMDNats]

My Scherzer deal with the Yankees would basically be:

Clint Frazier, Estevan Florial (#1 prospect), Thairo Estrada, Anthony Seigler (2018 1st round pick - catcher in low-A; #7 prospect), Clarke Schmidt (2017 1st round pick - SP, #6 prospect) & Domingo German (SP), to start. That's probably pretty light, honestly. I'd also ask for Chad Green and probably Greg Bird as a throw-in reclamation project.

Hard pass on Severino. I love the kid but shoulder issues are absolute no-gos for me.

[Slateman]

And what if Cole doesn't want to sign here?  What if Severino doesn't return to health and the 1 year he's shown to be a good pitcher?  It's foolish to part with Max when he's still in peak form pinning your hopes on what you laid out.  Even Strasburg is more of a bird in hand, and with today's pitching landscape, he's a top-15 pitcher in baseball.

Cole will sign with whoever gives him the most money. Severino is going to be fine.

Its foolish to wrap up this much in two starting pitchers at the end of their careers when you have zero shot of making the playiffs

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Cole will sign with whoever gives him the most money. Severino is going to be fine.

Its foolish to wrap up this much in two starting pitchers at the end of their careers when you have zero shot of making the playiffs

Somebody better tell Max that he's at the end of his career.  Him and Verlander are the best 2 pitchers in the game...Verlander is older than Max.  I'd take Max the next few years over Severino. 

[hotshot]

Trade Stras for sure. He's having a good enough season to warrant a good return.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Trade Stras for sure. He's having a good enough season to warrant a good return.

Problem is his contract.  He has an opt-out after this year, which makes him a semi-rental.  The team trading for him would need either some assurance or a great leap of faith to give up a lot.

[Slateman]

Problem is his contract.  He has an opt-out after this year, which makes him a semi-rental.  The team trading for him would need either some assurance or a great leap of faith to give up a lot.

The opt out makes him more valuable. No one wants him on that deal.

[Elvir Ovcina]

The opt out makes him more valuable. No one wants him on that deal.

If nobody wants him on that deal, then he wouldn't opt out unless he gets bad advice.  And then you'd be stuck with him on a contract that (in your hypo) you don't want.   Either way, you need to have a good sense when trading for him which way he's leaning so you can price appropriately.

[Senatorswin]

After going 20 out of their last 29 nobody is going anywhere.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Do you realize in today's environment of home runs at record numbers how rare a top of the line starting pitcher is?  Wanting to trade away Max, the best pitcher in the game, or Stras...one of the top 10 or 15...is insane.  Good starting pitching is the hardest thing in the game today to find.  Trading them away for somebody who might one day become something at whatever position...you only do that if you're about to lose the player to free agency or don't plan to contend for years. 

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

After going 20 out of their last 29 nobody is going anywhere.

There isn't going to be some massive firesale even if we fall out of it this year.  There's a core that will stick around and be built around.  Max, Stras, and Corbin in the rotation.  Doo in the pen.  Rendon (hopefully), Soto, Turner, Eaton, and Robles as position players. 

[UMDNats]

Barring a major collapse over the next month we're not gonna be sellers anymore. We've turned it around. 2.5 GB in the WC and 7 GB in the division.

[nfotiu]

The opt out makes him more valuable. No one wants him on that deal.

That's some crazy mental gymnastics to think a player opt out makes it a more team friendly contract.  I guarantee that no perspective trading partner thinks that.

[Slateman]

That's some crazy mental gymnastics to think a player opt out makes it a more team friendly contract.  I guarantee that no perspective trading partner thinks that.

No one wants to pay Strasburg 28 million a year for the next four years. There are a bunch of teams that might be willing to pay him half of this year's salary as a rental.

I can guarantee you that he has more value if he promises to opt out at the end of the season.

[HalfSmokes]

No one wants to pay Strasburg 28 million a year for the next four years. There are a bunch of teams that might be willing to pay him half of this year's salary as a rental.

You just made a great economic case for him not opting out

I can guarantee you that he has more value if he promises to opt out at the end of the season.

Even if he plans on opting out, why would he promise that? He has no idea what will happen between now and when he exercises the opt out and a bad injury could easily happen

[UMDNats]

"I have $28 million a year guaranteed, but I'll opt out even though no one will give me anything close to that."

[Slateman]

You just made a great economic case for him not opting out
Even if he plans on opting out, why would he promise that? He has no idea what will happen between now and when he exercises the opt out and a bad injury could easily happen

Because he's likely getting traded some place he doesnt want to be?

[HalfSmokes]

Because he's likely getting traded some place he doesnt want to be?

So you think he’ll promise to forego $100 million to facilitate a trade

[Slateman]

So you think he’ll promise to forego $100 million to facilitate a trade

He's odd and left money on the table initially. If it meant being where he wanted, yes.

[HalfSmokes]

He left money on the table and made a conservative decision to insure against injury risk- it turns out he was correct, I’m not sure how that equates with flushing away the majority of his one big contract

[Slateman]

He left money on the table and made a conservative decision to insure against injury risk- it turns out he was correct, I’m not sure how that equates with flushing away the majority of his one big contract

Because he's getting traded one way or another. So either he can opt out and play where he wants, or stay where he ends up.

[HalfSmokes]

Or he could go where he gets traded and make a decision at the end of the year and opt out if he really doesn’t like where he is

[UMDNats]

I think you're overestimating how much players care about what city they play in, Slate. No player will throw away $100 million just because they get traded to Milwaukee or whatever.