POLL: UPDATED: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....

[BigMeech]

these negotiations have made harper the most insufferable player in baseball.  hopefully he fails wherever he goes.  A dude who batted .243 in 2016 and .249 in 2018 thinks he deserves $300 million+.

[mitlen]

I actually just thought about that two days ago. Tried on my phone and couldn't figure it out...and then felt guilty for even considering it.

Don't even know who I'd put on there...may have to go with a WVU logo...

Did I see what you did there?     

[BigMeech]

nationals gonna win the world series now that that cancer bryce harper is gone. 

[hotshot]

I always figured that at that level of income, lifestyle is the pretty much same no matter which major city you live in. 

And you'd be wrong. Unless you love cold, snow and/or rainy weather/high humidity/heat in the summer (as opposed to a year-round temperate, Mediterranean climate), no nearby beaches, etc. We can't even count traffic as a plus (as gridlock on the roads in the DMV is now rated worse than LA's).

[Slateman]

yes but not every city has year-round 70 degree days or readily available beach access

So buy a house and live there in the offseason.

[HalfSmokes]

So buy a house and live there in the offseason.

Which works great until you have kids who go to school

[nfotiu]

If Phillies were looking like sure fire World Series contenders for a while, I bet the climate and city is a lot less of a concern.   Machado left a hopeless team in a hopeless city for the best climate in North America and an up and coming team.

Harper can't feel that excited about leaving what he had here for a team that is questionable to compete in a city that is arguably a step down in desirability for not much more money than he could have here.

[skippy1999]

Maybe no teams are interested in Bryce, wouldn’t that be something

[NJ Ave]

Taking a step back, it must be kind of an ego hit. Bryce was expecting all the best teams to fly in with multimedia presentations like he was Kevin Durant. Instead the Phillies and White Sox showed up with PowerPoint slides.

I found a sneak peek at the Phillies slide deck:

[Mattionals]

Apparently the standard take is that Harper and Boras are jerks and Bryce's asking price is ridiculous because he isn't worth it.

Here is my take, which is by no way unique. Figuring out what WAR per dollar Harper will be worth doesn't include the entire picture of his brand and his marketability. While his asking price is steep, this soft luxury tax which was designed to be a "George Steinbrenner III" cap, has become an excuse for owners to make more money, charge more, and basically pay players below inflation. Now it's not the fans fault that the players union signed a bad CBA for them, but it's unfathomable that teams won't pay for one of the 15 best position players in the sport. Baseball teams are being run more and more like greedy corporations than sports teams to give fans something to watch as an escape from their everyday lives. Harper almost has to ask for 300 Million plus because if he doesn't, he screws future free agents. Same reason why Yasmani Grandal settled for one year at a high salary, as all the multi year offers didn't move the needle forward for future catchers.

All in all, the free agency system is broken. Basically every team can get better with the addition of Harper's bat. Seeing that he is forced into the current situation where the high offer is a team that he seemingly has reservations about joining, the player has no leverage in a situation where they should.

I don't think the Nats should spend on Harper, but considering the big offer is only coming from the Phillies is troubling. A team that just traded away some of it's best prospects and young talent to "make a go of it now" with at best a wildcard roster is not necessarily a good fit for any potential free agent. I know that Werth turned heads by signing in DC, but he signed with a team that had two of the highest ranked prospects/young talent, and an established star 3B. If I was weighing which teams in the NL East I'd want to join, I'd say the Braves outlook is much better, the Nats still have a hell of a roster, and the Mets rotation is nothing to scoff at.

[imref]

Mattionals, we live in the age of analytics.  Sure, most any team would be better with Harper, but few teams want to tie up $325 million or so over the next ten years for the level of improvement that Harper brings.  I don't see there being any conspiracy, rather it's free market economics driven by detailed data analysis.  Machado, Corbin, and now Arenado have shown that teams will pay big bucks when the value is there.  Mike Trout isn't going to have to wait around for suitors if he doesn't re-up with LAA.  Harper and Boras seem to be expecting teams to pay for Harper the media star rather than Harper the baseball player.

[nfotiu]

Taking a step back, it must be kind of an ego hit. Bryce was expecting all the best teams to fly in with multimedia presentations like he was Kevin Durant. Instead the Phillies and White Sox showed up with PowerPoint slides.

I found a sneak peek at the Phillies slide deck:

Durant took a 2 year/61 million dollar deal to go the Warriors.  Harper could pick his team at that rate too.

[bluestreak]

Durant took a 2 year/61 million dollar deal to go the Warriors.  Harper could pick his team at that rate too.

Two words: Max Contracts.

[nfotiu]

Apparently the standard take is that Harper and Boras are jerks and Bryce's asking price is ridiculous because he isn't worth it.

Here is my take, which is by no way unique. Figuring out what WAR per dollar Harper will be worth doesn't include the entire picture of his brand and his marketability. While his asking price is steep, this soft luxury tax which was designed to be a "George Steinbrenner III" cap, has become an excuse for owners to make more money, charge more, and basically pay players below inflation. Now it's not the fans fault that the players union signed a bad CBA for them, but it's unfathomable that teams won't pay for one of the 15 best position players in the sport. Baseball teams are being run more and more like greedy corporations than sports teams to give fans something to watch as an escape from their everyday lives. Harper almost has to ask for 300 Million plus because if he doesn't, he screws future free agents. Same reason why Yasmani Grandal settled for one year at a high salary, as all the multi year offers didn't move the needle forward for future catchers.

All in all, the free agency system is broken. Basically every team can get better with the addition of Harper's bat. Seeing that he is forced into the current situation where the high offer is a team that he seemingly has reservations about joining, the player has no leverage in a situation where they should.

I don't think the Nats should spend on Harper, but considering the big offer is only coming from the Phillies is troubling. A team that just traded away some of it's best prospects and young talent to "make a go of it now" with at best a wildcard roster is not necessarily a good fit for any potential free agent. I know that Werth turned heads by signing in DC, but he signed with a team that had two of the highest ranked prospects/young talent, and an established star 3B. If I was weighing which teams in the NL East I'd want to join, I'd say the Braves outlook is much better, the Nats still have a hell of a roster, and the Mets rotation is nothing to scoff at.

All sorts of teams are willing to give him what he's worth per year which should be in the neighborhood of 35-40 million and while I do think Boras and the union are probably pressuring him somewhat to not undersell himself, I don't think it hurts anyone if he takes a short year deal at the highest rate.  The good, high budget teams want to be good every year, and don't want to tie up that salary at the later parts of the contract.  There's probably some lower level teams willing to make a splash, but he seems picky on where he'll go.   So I think the market is working all in all.   I don't begrudge him at all.  He is not going to get the perfect team in the perfect city for a max contract.  It's a difficult decision to decide which of those he is willing to let go.

One other factor is teams used to be able to count on rapid salary and revenue inflation.   Dumb, long term deals made a lot more sense to owners when 35 million in today's dollars would be 15 million in 10 years.

[Mattionals]

Mattionals, we live in the age of analytics.  Sure, most any team would be better with Harper, but few teams want to tie up $325 million or so over the next ten years for the level of improvement that Harper brings.  I don't see there being any conspiracy, rather it's free market economics driven by detailed data analysis.  Machado, Corbin, and now Arenado have shown that teams will pay big bucks when the value is there.  Mike Trout isn't going to have to wait around for suitors if he doesn't re-up with LAA.  Harper and Boras seem to be expecting teams to pay for Harper the media star rather than Harper the baseball player.

I totally get the analytical drive, but using analytics to essentially kill free agency is also happening. Look at the service time manipulation, the number of players signing minor league deals. Fangraphs and MLBTR have gone on record as saying that free agency has changed, and not in the benefit of the players. Sure, some contracts have been signed, but players are now signing big extensions because free agent values are suppressed. I love statistics and analytics, but I also hate when they are used to over simplify situations or drive towards a "one size fits all" scenario.

I hate it in my own field when the bean counters get pissy because they try to make comparisons between two scenarios that aren't apples to apples. As an engineer, I drive the lowest price for each individual unique project, but simplifying it down to a one size fits all metric is not helpful or healthy for company growth. That is why WAR/dollar will kill baseball, simply because WAR is flawed enough to make it a poor apples to apples stat.

[Truconfidence]

Now the national reporter take is that Bryce always wanted the Dodgers or Cubs and never wanted the Phillies or any other team but those 2. I think this is hilarious. I am starting to believe more and more that he wasnt a cancer in the clubhouse but an anchor because his attitude last year.

[Copecwby20]

Anyone in the DC/MD area have a fire pit I can borrow for a second? I have a jersey I need to get rid of.

[LoveAngelos]

The family wants LA
The Bryce wants the most bucks for his legacy which is Philly.
A reality series is on the Horizon
"The Harper's Bizarre "
Boras and the Harper's deserve each other. Maybe Harper should start his own league

[Slateman]

Would he not sign a contract in that league too?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Anyone in the DC/MD area have a fire pit I can borrow for a second? I have a jersey I need to get rid of.

You ought to do what I did when Papelbon went to the Phillies.  I took it to the Red Sox / Nats exhibition at Nats Park, went to the Red Loft, put it on the floor, and invited fans from both teams to step on it, spill beer, wipe their shoes, etc... on it.

I sorta think San Diego should go in with a very high dollar, 3 year deal, say 3 yrs/ $110MM.  They still have a low budget and plenty of prospects.  Essentially, you'd run Harper out there while the prospects are on MLB minimum, and you'd get the benefit of him playing with Machado, Tatis, etc... and become an instant contender.  Then, Harper rolls off the budget when these guys hit arbitration.  Of course, the 2021 renegotiation might impact the out years, but they would not be tethered to Harper's money at that point.

[RiotAct]

Would he not sign a contract in that league too?

 

[hotshot]

If one offer is appreciably larger than the rest, I go there. If they're all close, I go for lifestyle and best chance to win a WS now and in the future.

Bryce has said he likes the idea of Spring Training in AZ. That helps the Dodgers and Giants.

[WashingtonWizards23]

Is he taking his talents to Hollywood? 

[nfotiu]

We can offer him rehab starts in Fresno!

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

these negotiations have made harper the most insufferable player in baseball.  hopefully he fails wherever he goes.  A dude who batted .243 in 2016 and .249 in 2018 thinks he deserves $300 million+.

He's been offered just that, so whether YOU feel he deserves it is irrelevant.