Poll

Updated - who does Harper sign with?

Nationals
25 (47.2%)
Phillies
22 (41.5%)
Padres
2 (3.8%)
D'backs
1 (1.9%)
White Sox
3 (5.7%)

Total Members Voted: 53

Author Topic: POLL: UPDATED: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....  (Read 68436 times)

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Online UMDNats

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I honestly never felt that way, to me Bryce seemed to really embrace DC and enjoy playing here. 

I think he really embraced DC but when he hired Boras as a teenager and spent years talking about his big free agent contract that doesn't scream, "I'm going to re-sign here!"

When you hire Scott Boras you are looking for the biggest payday possible, period. He's the best agent in baseball, especially when it comes to free agency, and how many high-profile Boras clients sign long-term extensions before they hit the market. Bryce seemed to love playing in DC but his mind was always on setting a record contract and that doesn't really scream, "I want to play here forever." Love the guy, loved watching him in DC, hope he does well wherever he signs, but it would have been foolish to think Bryce was likely to re-sign here. Possible? yeah, absolutely, it's always been possible and there seemed like a time when it could happen smoothly. But unfortunately the last calendar year made it pretty clear it was going to take a weird situation to come  back.

Online bluestreak

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I think most fans are missing the significance of opt outs. He might sign for less overall than the Nats offered but in the end might make more money by taking an opt out.

It’s interesting that with all the talk of Harper no one is talking about Strasburg having an opt out after this year. If he has a big season he might well be gone in 2020. I can see why owners don’t want to give long contracts with these opt outs. I can also see why Harper probably wondered why he wasn’t offered the opt outs by the Nats.

Is a long contract without an opt out better for the team than a long contract with an opt out?  Without the opt out, you will definitely be on the hook for the back end years that are very likely to be unproductive. With the opt out, you might not be. To put it another way. Even if the first 3-4 years are really good, it still doesn't mean years 8-10 will be...

Offline Natsinpwc

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Is a long contract without an opt out better for the team than a long contract with an opt out?  Without the opt out, you will definitely be on the hook for the back end years that are very likely to be unproductive. With the opt out, you might not be. To put it another way. Even if the first 3-4 years are really good, it still doesn't mean years 8-10 will be...
Disagree because if the player has good years early he will likely opt out to get even more as salaries generally rise over time. If he does poorly you are stuck with him either way.

Offline Natsinpwc

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I think he really embraced DC but when he hired Boras as a teenager and spent years talking about his big free agent contract that doesn't scream, "I'm going to re-sign here!"

When you hire Scott Boras you are looking for the biggest payday possible, period. He's the best agent in baseball, especially when it comes to free agency, and how many high-profile Boras clients sign long-term extensions before they hit the market. Bryce seemed to love playing in DC but his mind was always on setting a record contract and that doesn't really scream, "I want to play here forever." Love the guy, loved watching him in DC, hope he does well wherever he signs, but it would have been foolish to think Bryce was likely to re-sign here. Possible? yeah, absolutely, it's always been possible and there seemed like a time when it could happen smoothly. But unfortunately the last calendar year made it pretty clear it was going to take a weird situation to come  back.
Like Strasburg? 

Looks like Rendon is headed the same way to free agency despite all the talk about signing him long term.

Online UMDNats

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Strasburg is a different situation because he's a pitcher with a long injury history and with his quiet personality I wasn't totally surprised he wanted some security.

He is an abnormal case and sure, he's a Boras client who signed long-term before FA, but he had some unique circumstances.

Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 20184
Is a long contract without an opt out better for the team than a long contract with an opt out?  Without the opt out, you will definitely be on the hook for the back end years that are very likely to be unproductive. With the opt out, you might not be. To put it another way. Even if the first 3-4 years are really good, it still doesn't mean years 8-10 will be...

Yes- the opt out lessons the chances that the contract ends up being an under pay because if the player has a big season they leave, but leaves steady the chances of an overpay since if they get seriously injured or have their performance fall off a cliff, they will not exercise the opt out

Online bluestreak

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Yes- the opt out lessons the chances that the contract ends up being an under pay because if the player has a big season they leave, but leaves steady the chances of an overpay since if they get seriously injured or have their performance fall off a cliff, they will not exercise the opt out

I suppose I think about it this way: The end of the contract will be dead weight regardless of how the player performs for the first half. I see the last 3-4 years as guaranteed overpay. Anything that lessens the chance of the player being on your team for those years is a net positive.

Maybe I am thinking about this incorrectly. 

Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 20184
I suppose I think about it this way. The end of the contract will be dead weight regardless of how the player performs for the first half. I see the last 3-4 years as guaranteed overpay. Anything that lessens the chance of the player being on your team for those years is a net positive.

Maybe I am thinking about this incorrectly. 

I think it depends on how you value the years immediately following the opt out. If you think there could be value there over the balance of the contract, the opt out has the potential to hurt the team. The way I look at it is that the player would never exercise an opt out unless they thought they could make more money, to me, that means that everytime an opt out is exercised and a player gets more money, the deal the player left was a situation where no opt out would have been preferable to the team

Online mitlen

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  • We had 'em all the way
Harper's "dead weight" at the end of a long term contract will not have the value of Werth's or Zimmerman's "dead weight".     The last two bring more value to the team and fan base.    I see Harper sittin' around and mopin'.

Online skippy1999

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I just can't believe this is still going on and camp is opening up!!! :panic: :panic: :panic:

Offline NationalHeat

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I think he overplayed his hand and all he has left is an offer from a team he doesn't want (Philly) and is hoping its matched by us.

Online UMDNats

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I just can't believe this is still going on and camp is opening up!!! :panic: :panic: :panic:

I know. I figured it could bleed into January but we're at report day and there is no sign anything is close.

Online skippy1999

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I know. I figured it could bleed into January but we're at report day and there is no sign anything is close.

it's madness!! I really wonder what it would've been like if Machado wasn't a free agent also and vice versa, would these guys have been more willing to take a deal without wanting to beat out the other?  Is that really what's holding it up I wonder?

Offline Natsinpwc

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Kimbrel and Keuchel are unsigned also.

Online mitlen

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  • We had 'em all the way
Kimbrel and Keuchel are unsigned also.

Kimbrel would hurt my Nats watchin' habits.

Online skippy1999

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  • We suck
Kimbrel and Keuchel are unsigned also.

Gio too :lol:

Offline Truconfidence

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Gio too :lol:

Supposedly the Mets have offered him and he might sign there.

Online mitlen

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  • We had 'em all the way
Gio too :lol:

Gio's more mental (plus I have an 8 X 10 color autographed photo).     Kimbrel's a visual gag.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Online PowerBoater69

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From a Rangers beat writer. Poor Harper.

Quote
Rangers pitcher Shawn Kelley on where Bryce Harper will end up: "No idea. Talked to him the other day and he said it’s actually slower than you guys think it is."

Offline varoadking

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  • King of Goodness
From a Rangers beat writer. Poor Harper.

Greedy Billionaire Owners...

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

  • Posts: 1469
How much did Harper make in his 7 seasons with the Nats?  How much would that same production likely have cost had we had to sign a vet free agent to take that spot?  Thanks to the way baseball is structured, teams get crazy value out of the pre-arbitration years of young stars.  If Harper is done as a Nat, he was a huge bargain to the franchise both on the field and in marketing. 

Offline Natsinpwc

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Greedy Billionaire Owners...
It’s tough to be a millionaire. Even tougher to be a billionaire.

Online bluestreak

  • Posts: 8716
How much did Harper make in his 7 seasons with the Nats?  How much would that same production likely have cost had we had to sign a vet free agent to take that spot?  Thanks to the way baseball is structured, teams get crazy value out of the pre-arbitration years of young stars.  If Harper is done as a Nat, he was a huge bargain to the franchise both on the field and in marketing.

$47.9 million for 27.4 bWAR. Sad thing is, he got one third of that WAR number in a season that the Nats didn't make the playoffs.

Offline Natsinpwc

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$47.9 million for 27.4 bWAR. Sad thing is, he got one third of that WAR number in a season that the Nats didn't make the playoffs.
Serious question. They won the division 4 of the 7 years he was here. How many do you think they would have won without him?

Who decided bWar is the end all of metrics?  He has a career OPS+ of 139. That’s not terrible.