2018-2019 Offseason Moves

[bluestreak]

So we shouldn't sign an elite closer now because he might get hurt?

Seems like a good plan...

Kind of... relievers are so fickle and fragile that paying a lot for one as a free agent is rarely worth it. You need to develop one.

[UMDNats]

Kind of... relievers are so fickle and fragile that paying a lot for one as a free agent is rarely worth it. You need to develop one.

i can't think of a single reliever the nationals have developed internally besides like chad cordero. does clippard count? craig stammen? i guess storen. we moved filipe rivero for melancon i guess.

paying big money to a reliever isn't a good team-building strategy but it makes sense when you just need a really good closer because your bullpen has the depth of a kiddie pool. our roster is pretty strong otherwise and i would have preferred signing some mid-level relief FAs over kimbrel, but here we are.

[imref]

i can't think of a single reliever the nationals have developed internally besides like chad cordero

On our current roster;
Matt Grace
Koda Glover
Wande Suero
Sammy Solis
Austen Williams
Jimmy Cordero
Austin Voth

[UMDNats]

On our current roster;
Matt Grace 3.54 ERA
Koda Glover 4.55 ERA
Wande Suero 3.59 ERA
Sammy Solis 4.51 ERA
Austen Williams 5.59 ERA
Jimmy Cordero 5.68 ERA
Austin Voth 6.57 ERA

a true murderer's row

[Duke of Earl]

i can't think of a single reliever the nationals have developed internally besides like chad cordero. does clippard count? craig stammen?

Clippard, definitely not. we got him from the Yankees in a trade.  Stammen -- well yes the Nationals developed him, but not as a reliever.

[UMDNats]

We developed Blake Treinen I guess (got him in a trade when he was a minor leaguer), but then he turned into a pumpkin and we traded him. But he had 3 good years with us

[Slateman]

Clippard, definitely not. we got him from the Yankees in a trade.  Stammen -- well yes the Nationals developed him, but not as a reliever.

Clippard was a starter with the Yankees. The Nationals converted him and developed him into a reliever. Stammen didn't work as a starter, so the Nats developed him into a reliever.

[Expos]

Kind of... relievers are so fickle and fragile that paying a lot for one as a free agent is rarely worth it. You need to develop one.

This is a win now roster. We need to have a dependable closer and bullpen on this team.

[imref]

a true murderer's row

I didn't say they were good relievers, just that we have developed some. 

(and don't judge relievers based on ERA).

[Expos]

Kimbrel and elite closer no longer belong in the same sentence. Price needs to drop  -- a lot!

Say what??

2.74 ERA
42 saves
62.1 Innings
96 strikeouts
.995 WHIP
97-100 MPH fastball
Deadly offspeed knuckle curve

I'd like to see your definition of an elite closer if Kimbrel isn't one of them.

[imref]

Clippard was a starter with the Yankees. The Nationals converted him and developed him into a reliever. Stammen didn't work as a starter, so the Nats developed him into a reliever.

we developed Storen as well

[Mattionals]

Relievers drafted and developed by the Nats who reached the majors with the Nats (since 2005 as Expos history doesn't count):

Organized by draft year

2005 - Craig Stammen
2006 - Cole Kimball
2007 - Ross Detweiler
2008 - Tommy Milone (pitched in relief on his second stint in DC, so it kinda counts)
2009 - Drew Storen
2010 - Sammy Solis
2010 - A.J. Cole (threw in relief a few times before going to the Yankees)
2010 - Matt Grace
2010 - Aaron Barrett
2011 - Taylor Hill
2013 - Austin Voth
2014 - Erick Fedde (sort of)
2014 - Austen Williams
2015 - Koda Glover

I'm not counting guys that appeared as starters for the Nats and became relievers elsewhere.

[UMDNats]

I didn't say they were good relievers, just that we have developed some. 

(and don't judge relievers based on ERA).

of course not but no statistics are gonna show any of those guys are quality relievers, the only guy who i could say, "yeah, i'd count on him" is grace

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Clippard, definitely not. we got him from the Yankees in a trade.  Stammen -- well yes the Nationals developed him, but not as a reliever.

in fairness, didn't we convert Clippard to a reliever?  he was a starter with the NYY.  I still say finding some busted starters and converting them probably is less risky than an older reliever on a contract > 3 years. Heck, Andrew Miller did not make it through 3.

[Elvir Ovcina]

in fairness, didn't we convert Clippard to a reliever?  he was a starter with the NYY.  I still say finding some busted starters and converting them probably is less risky than an older reliever on a contract > 3 years. Heck, Andrew Miller did not make it through 3.

Yes.  Miller of course is himself a good reliever who was a crappy starter at MLB level.

[Duke of Earl]

Classic case, Darold Knowles.  Best reliever the Senators ever had.  Terrible starter.

[UMDNats]

Converting busted starters to relievers is definitely the new MO, I wish we would do it more aggressively or use rehabbing/young starters as relievers as a way to get more good arms into the bullpen. Get turds like Solis and Glover into the minor leagues or on waivers. IMO opening day I go with:

Doolittle
Rosenthal
Barraclough
Fedde
Grace
Suero
Ross

Max
Stras
Corbs
Bals
Hels

If you need a spot starter, Ross is ready to go but can help the team and get up to speed as the long man/multi-inning dude with Fedde, but use Fedde as a fireman 2-inning guy if you can. Ross can spot start but if he just pitched when someone hits the DL, we have Voth/Williams/McGowin in AAA who can step in and provide pretty much the same five and dive, 2-3 run outing.

[HalfSmokes]

Converting busted starters to relievers is definitely the new MO, I wish we would do it more aggressively or use rehabbing/young starters as relievers as a way to get more good arms into the bullpen. Get turds like Solis and Glover into the minor leagues or on waivers. IMO opening day I go with:

Doolittle
Rosenthal
Barraclough
Fedde
Grace
Suero
Ross

Max
Stras
Corbs
Bals
Hels

If you need a spot starter, Ross is ready to go but can help the team and get up to speed as the long man/multi-inning dude with Fedde, but use Fedde as a fireman 2-inning guy if you can. Ross can spot start but if he just pitched when someone hits the DL, we have Voth/Williams/McGowin in AAA who can step in and provide pretty much the same five and dive, 2-3 run outing.

nothing new about relievers being failed starters- the best closer of all time was a failed starter

[Elvir Ovcina]

nothing new about relievers being failed starters- the best closer of all time was a failed starter

As are almost all relievers.  Many just fail earlier than the MLB level.  People are enamored of the Yankees bullpen, for example: 

Chapman - Started in Cuba.  Started in the minors as well (badly) and converted to a reliever in AAA.
Betances - Started all the way up to AAA, then had a year in which he ran up a 6+ ERA there.  Reliever pretty much since.
Ottavino - Started all the way up MLB with the Cardinals.  Wasn't good (4.60 ERA in 3 AAA seasons).  Converted to relief by the Rockies.
Britton -  Started for several years with the Orioles.  Was awful.  Immediately lights-out as a reliever.
Green - Started up through AAA (and was actually good at it there) but got 8 starts in MLB, ran up a 5.94 as a starter and then was converted.

Also, reliever performance is so fickle from year to year.  For example, I don't think Matt Grace is any good, last year's numbers notwithstanding.   I'd be surprised to see him put up a sub-4 ERA (by the way, he's also a failed starter).   Ask the Yankees about Tommy Kahnle (never a starter as a professional, by the way).

[UMDNats]

nothing new about relievers being failed starters- the best closer of all time was a failed starter

True (duh, I'm an idiot - no one starts off as a closer) but would, "mediocre starter converted to reliever" be a new thing? I feel like I've seen teams be more aggressive with putting starters in the bullpen early in their major league careers rather than dicking around with them as starters, especially if they hit AAA and are meh. could be mindfacting

like id rather us just take Fedde now and make him a reliever than dick around with him as a starter

[bluestreak]

like id rather us just take Fedde now and make him a reliever than dick around with him as a starter

If the Nats had starter depth, I imagine that’s what they’d do.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

True (duh, I'm an idiot - no one starts off as a closer) but would, "mediocre starter converted to reliever" be a new thing? I feel like I've seen teams be more aggressive with putting starters in the bullpen early in their major league careers rather than dicking around with them as starters, especially if they hit AAA and are meh. could be mindfacting

like id rather us just take Fedde now and make him a reliever than dick around with him as a starter

papelbon was a reliever in college, then stretched out as a starter in up to AAA to get him to learn more pitches, then was brought up to replace Foulke early in 2006 and I don't think ever started a regular season game after that. 

That said, I'd like to see starters be more of the "OMG" (One-inning, Max-effort Guy) that Silver says is ruining the game rather than just multi-inning guys.  Fedde and Voth might be two projects.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If the Nats had starter depth, I imagine that’s what they’d do.

well, there's McGowin and Alvarez, and Crowe is on the way.  At least one of Voth and Fedde should be switched now.

[Truconfidence]

I think Austen Williams or Scott Copeland make the team over Fedde.

[Slateman]

Say what??

2.74 ERA
42 saves
62.1 Innings
96 strikeouts
.995 WHIP
97-100 MPH fastball
Deadly offspeed knuckle curve

I'd like to see your definition of an elite closer if Kimbrel isn't one of them.

Fastball velocity down
4.48 BB/9 in the regular season
ERA over 5 in the 2018 postseason
 
Kimbrel is not elite anymore. Paying him like he is would be asking for an albatross contract that will inhibit your flexibility at the deadline