Author Topic: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves  (Read 118278 times)

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Online imref

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1575 on: March 04, 2019, 08:42:04 am »
It’s pretty clear to me that DCFan knows very little about baseball other than what someone told him in the 80s. Hence why he responds to lots of thoughtful data with “but he’s got saves.”  Being stuck in attitudes of 30 years ago seems to be his schitck.

Standard decision :)

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1576 on: March 04, 2019, 08:43:28 am »
Ask Sox fans how they liked him. You don't want your supposedly elite reliever living on the edge like Kimbrel has the last several years. The idea is to put out fires, not start them. VERY reminiscent of a declining Papelbon in his last two years in MLB.

Papelbon was 34 when traded here. Kimbrel will be 31 this season. Stop acting like they are comparable.

Kimbrel has always been slightly walk heavy but has a low whip. High K rate.

What I am simply saying is that the reasons some compare Kimbrel now to Papelbon could be applied to Kimbrel 5 years ago. It hasn't happened yet. It will eventually, but that applies to every Pitcher/Player. It's like saying it will rain tomorrow everyday until it does rain.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1577 on: March 04, 2019, 09:11:17 am »
It’s pretty clear to me that DCFan knows very little about baseball other than what someone told him in the 80s. Hence why he responds to lots of thoughtful data with “but he’s got saves.”  Being stuck in attitudes of 30 years ago seems to be his schitck.
It’s an important stat.  But not the only one. And obviously if you are on a better team you get more save chances.

No teams seem interested in a long term deal. Maybe offer him two years. They would need to make sure he knows that he is co number one with Doolittle and that he can accept that.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1578 on: March 04, 2019, 09:14:54 am »
Papelbon was 34 when traded here. Kimbrel will be 31 this season. Stop acting like they are comparable.

Kimbrel has always been slightly walk heavy but has a low whip. High K rate.

What I am simply saying is that the reasons some compare Kimbrel now to Papelbon could be applied to Kimbrel 5 years ago. It hasn't happened yet. It will eventually, but that applies to every Pitcher/Player. It's like saying it will rain tomorrow everyday until it does rain.
His walk rate was not good last year and way up from 2017. That can happen when a power pitcher knows they can hit his fastball. His WHIP was still good. And actually better than 2015-17. 2017 he was under .700.

He may not fall off a cliff but a long term deal is a risk.

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1579 on: March 04, 2019, 09:23:35 am »
His walk rate was not good last year and way up from 2017. That can happen when a power pitcher knows they can hit his fastball. His WHIP was still good. And actually better than 2015-17. 2017 he was under .700.

He may not fall off a cliff but a long term deal is a risk.

It is risky. No argument against that.

It also risky in hoping Doo doesn’t spent a portion of the season on the DL. He has and it cost us last season.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1580 on: March 04, 2019, 09:35:32 am »
His walk rate was not good last year and way up from 2017. That can happen when a power pitcher knows they can hit his fastball. His WHIP was still good. And actually better than 2015-17. 2017 he was under .700.

He may not fall off a cliff but a long term deal is a risk.

Maybe I’m mind da ting, but I feel like certain guys (usually closers) get used to coming in for a clean inning, in which case they can walk a guy more often than relievers who have to come in with men on to bail out starters. I actually worry less about Kimbrel (at least short term), and more about what it does to Doolittle

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1581 on: March 04, 2019, 09:42:26 am »
Maybe I’m mind da ting, but I feel like certain guys (usually closers) get used to coming in for a clean inning, in which case they can walk a guy more often than relievers who have to come in with men on to bail out starters. I actually worry less about Kimbrel (at least short term), and more about what it does to Doolittle

I assume (you know what they say about assuming  :) ) that before bringing him aboard, he understands sometimes he will pitch the 8th, sometimes the 9th. If he rejected that we shouldn’t accept him. Everyone knows Doo is here.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1582 on: March 04, 2019, 09:46:47 am »
One thing the Sox tried to do with Kimbrel is give him >3 out save opportunities.  Come in in the 8th.  I have not looked at the stats or found a discussion of whether that contributed to his walks.  He was still very difficult to make contact with.  My impression is his blown saves were on the few times he gave up contact. 

I'm neither here nor there on this.  I thought he should have taken the qualifying offer because I thought the idea of signing him for more than any other closer has gotten for multiple years was nuts.  A 3 year deal in the $15MM/yr range might not be crazy for his talent, but I think you could probably spend that $15MM a year on other arms that might give you decent results.  With Rosenthal and Doo, I think you have a solid 1/2 already.  Rosenthal sure looks good so far.  While both are injury risks, I think they kind of balance each other out.  I also think Miller and Grace, and maybe Suero, are good for the 4-7 slots in the pen.  I'm just not yet convinced Barraclough is a good righty set up option, Glover looks unreliable, and would like another arm or two, a lefty and a righty, to push Solis off the roster.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1583 on: March 04, 2019, 09:50:06 am »
I assume (you know what they say about assuming  :) ) that before bringing him aboard, he understands sometimes he will pitch the 8th, sometimes the 9th. If he rejected that we shouldn’t accept him. Everyone knows Doo is here.

I have trouble envisioning a scenario in which a dude who has the ego to let his desire for a $100 million deal public is going to accept not being the closer. 

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1584 on: March 04, 2019, 09:56:54 am »
I have trouble envisioning a scenario in which a dude who has the ego to let his desire for a $100 million deal public is going to accept not being the closer.

Makes sense. Then the Nats should walk away.

However I wouldn’t say he wouldn’t be a closer. Just that sometimes the situation calls for Doo. The less stress we can put on Doo and Rosenthal over 162 the better.

I just imagine what would happen if we lost Doo for over 30 games again. That could snowball on the team quick.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1585 on: March 04, 2019, 10:33:16 am »
8 years. That's how long Kimbrel has been the best closer in the league. Even last year when his numbers dropped he was a top 3 closer.

He had a rough few post-season games. It happens. But he didn't blow any games and closed them out. That's all that counts.

No, hes not. He wasnt even the best closer in his division last season.

Furthermore, we arent paying for what he did the last 8 seasons. We're paying for what he will bring now. And right now, hes already starting his decline and still maintains a history of being unable to reliably throw strikes.

Offline Duke of Earl

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1586 on: March 04, 2019, 10:34:07 am »
Makes sense. Then the Nats should walk away.

However I wouldn’t say he wouldn’t be a closer.
a closer.  Not the closer.   There will be situations where he is better suited to close than Doolittle, and vice versa (alot of that has to do with one being a lefty and the other righty). If he insists on being the closer, please pass.  I never understood why Rizzo let Papelbon have his way on that issue.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1587 on: March 04, 2019, 10:35:43 am »
a closer.  Not the closer.   There will be situations where he is better suited to close than Doolittle, and vice versa (alot of that has to do with one being a lefty and the other righty). If he insists on being the closer, please pass.  I never understood why Rizzo let Papelbon have his way on that issue.

You're not paying Kimbrel 15-20 million a year to not close.

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1588 on: March 04, 2019, 10:40:58 am »
I am in a "no" camp on Kimbrel. I want the Nats to get under the luxury tax before Rendon's extension and they already lost a couple high draft picks for Corbin.

There are always closers available at the deadline. The Nats found Doolittle and Madson and back in the bad days we sold pitchers like Hanrahan and Capps at the deadline. We can find someone for a lower value and then have an easier time maneuvering the luxury tax.

I don't believe in big contracts for relievers, and that belief was only solidified by the Soriano disaster.

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1589 on: March 04, 2019, 10:52:00 am »
I am in a "no" camp on Kimbrel. I want the Nats to get under the luxury tax before Rendon's extension and they already lost a couple high draft picks for Corbin.

There are always closers available at the deadline. The Nats found Doolittle and Madson and back in the bad days we sold pitchers like Hanrahan and Capps at the deadline. We can find someone for a lower value and then have an easier time maneuvering the luxury tax.

I don't believe in big contracts for relievers, and that belief was only solidified by the Soriano disaster.

I guess I don’t understand how it’s important to not lose draft picks when a trade requires losing prospects. It seems like a wash to me.


Offline Trea Burner

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1590 on: March 04, 2019, 10:52:56 am »
8 years. That's how long Kimbrel has been the best closer in the league. Even last year when his numbers dropped he was a top 3 closer.

He had a rough few post-season games. It happens. But he didn't blow any games and closed them out. That's all that counts.

Just from watching some of his appearances past few years, he just looks like a guy who is about to decline. Not many closers are Mariano Rivera. In fact, most end up like Papelbon. It’s a tough job and one where many seem to fall off a cliff at some point.

Like I said though, I will not complain if they want to take the gamble; but it better not be at the expense of being cheap when they have to sign Rendon or others...

Offline Duke of Earl

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1591 on: March 04, 2019, 10:55:01 am »
You're not paying Kimbrel 15-20 million a year to not close.  PERIOD
Fixed.

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1592 on: March 04, 2019, 10:56:27 am »
I guess I don’t understand how it’s important to not lose draft picks when a trade requires losing prospects. It seems like a wash to me.


We don't for sure know we will need to make a trade. If Doolittle has a strong season, we won't need to break bank for a closer. A setup man or a good middle reliever at the deadline can be found by teams looking to shed salary or settling for low level prospects.

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1593 on: March 04, 2019, 11:03:02 am »
We don't for sure know we will need to make a trade. If Doolittle has a strong season, we won't need to break bank for a closer. A setup man or a good middle reliever at the deadline can be found by teams looking to shed salary or settling for low level prospects.

And if he ends up on the DL in May, we are gonna have to pay big for a replacement.

Looking at the division, we can’t afford to give away games at any point in the season. We need better depth in the bullpen.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1594 on: March 04, 2019, 11:05:53 am »
It doesn't seem like MLB teams have been going too far down the road of luxury tax circumventing contracts.  The Harper contract goes down that road a bit.   Are there rules in the CBA that prevent obvious circumventing deals like the NHL used to do before their rules changed?  ie, Give him an 8 year/96 million contract that is front loaded with the intention of him retiring after 4 years?

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1595 on: March 04, 2019, 11:12:20 am »
It doesn't seem like MLB teams have been going too far down the road of luxury tax circumventing contracts.  The Harper contract goes down that road a bit.   Are there rules in the CBA that prevent obvious circumventing deals like the NHL used to do before their rules changed?  ie, Give him an 8 year/96 million contract that is front loaded with the intention of him retiring after 4 years?

The kind of guy you’d want to give a huge deal to isn’t the kind of guy that close to retirement. It seems like they’ve gotten around to tax by getting rid of the tier of player making more than the veteran minimum while giving only slightly above replacement level play

Offline Mattionals

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1596 on: March 04, 2019, 11:21:28 am »
A quick look at Cots shows the Nats at under the luxury tax threshold by 10.5M. I know that doesn't account for incentives in contracts. I would assume if the goal is to stay under the 206M threshold AND sign Kimbrel, the Nats would have to get rid of some salary somewhere. Trading MAT for one is the most obvious move to make. I don't think there is a way to get under that threshold though, and unless ownership is going to nag about going over at the trade deadline, essentially they would have to go over. I for one, see this as 50/50 of happening. They have gone over for two years, and the Red Sox won it all last year blowing the tax threshold away. I would go for it and assemble what would likely be the best team I have yet seen the Nats assemble.

Also, comparing Kimbrel to a declining Papelbon is insane. Papelbon's peripheral numbers were way worse than Kimbrel's are. Kimbrel is still an elite closer, and so is Doolittle IMO, even if he has injury issues. The Nats also lack pitching depth. They did a great job assembling rotation depth this offseason, and adding Kimbrel helps address bullpen depth.

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1597 on: March 04, 2019, 02:37:13 pm »
FWIW, Jesse D in the Kimbrel article today (or Boz in the chat) said the Nats think they are $20mm below, not the Cot's number. They can generate more space if they renegotiate with RZ, too. There may be ways to do a deal for Kimbrel if it's closer to 3/$52.

Offline hotshot

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1598 on: March 04, 2019, 02:51:24 pm »
Papelbon was 34 when traded here. Kimbrel will be 31 this season. Stop acting like they are comparable.

Kimbrel has always been slightly walk heavy but has a low whip. High K rate.

What I am simply saying is that the reasons some compare Kimbrel now to Papelbon could be applied to Kimbrel 5 years ago. It hasn't happened yet. It will eventually, but that applies to every Pitcher/Player. It's like saying it will rain tomorrow everyday until it does rain.

Wasn't comparing Papelbon "when he came here." He was declining fast his last 3-4 years year (last one in Boston, and during his stint in Philly). I hated it when the Nats acquired him. I had about as much confidence in Pap as I did in Clippard and Storen during their end-time in DC.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: 2018-2019 Offseason Moves
« Reply #1599 on: March 04, 2019, 02:55:12 pm »
FWIW, Jesse D in the Kimbrel article today (or Boz in the chat) said the Nats think they are $20mm below, not the Cot's number. They can generate more space if they renegotiate with RZ, too. There may be ways to do a deal for Kimbrel if it's closer to 3/$52.

I think Cot's assumes worst case and also doesn't know how to compute Strasburg and Corbin's average salary due to the deferrals. They state as much on the bottom of their tax calculator pages.