2018-2019 Offseason Moves

[UMDNats]

There's a difference between being the highest paid guy and getting the biggest contract in MLB history, though. Rendon will be jumped by Bryant probably next year. But who else is going to top Harper if he gets 12/400?

I was cool breaking Stanton's contract with Harper but not much further than that.

[Trea Burner]

Still think the Phillies (and maybe White Sox) have the highest offers for Harper and he’s trying to get the Dodgers as close as possible to that number.

[Slateman]

There's a difference between being the highest paid guy and getting the biggest contract in MLB history, though. Rendon will be jumped by Bryant probably next year. But who else is going to top Harper if he gets 12/400?

I was cool breaking Stanton's contract with Harper but not much further than that.

Trout, Ramirez, Lindor, and Betts would all command that kind of money, if not more.

[UMDNats]

Trout, Ramirez, Lindor, and Betts would all command that kind of money, if not more.

Sure, but Trout's first extension didn't get close to that and I honestly don't expect the others to, either.

[Slateman]

Sure, but Trout's first extension didn't get close to that and I honestly don't expect the others to, either.

Trout was still under team control for a while when he signed his extension. And even with that, his AAV was 33 million. So with his contract up in 2020, I could totally see him getting close to that kind of money, even at age 28.

Those players might not get the years, but I would think they'd see the AAV

[UMDNats]

Trout was still under team control for a while when he signed his extension. And even with that, his AAV was 33 million. So with his contract up in 2020, I could totally see him getting close to that kind of money, even at age 28.

Those players might not get the years, but I would think they'd see the AAV

Right, I suspect the AAV will get touched pretty quickly, but I just don't know how many teams are going to want to commit that kind of years + money to free agents with the way roster-building is going. Harper is a rare case because he's 26 and has a huge brand around him but I am really curious to see what the final offers look like. The years + money commitment is why the Yankees took a risk bringing on Stanton, who already is basically a DH.

[NJ Ave]

Those players might not get the years, but I would think they'd see the AAV

I mean, this is a huge caveat, and it makes the statement worthless.

You're ignoring that the exact reason teams won't want to give Bryce Harper 12/$400 million is because he might be worthless or a platoon player by age-33, and they'd still be on the hook for 4/$150 million.

It's silly to talk about Mike Trout, who is projected for 9.2 WAR next year (Bryce is projected for 4.9). He's A-Rod and Harper is Stanton.

But yeah, if you want to say a lot of teams would give a lot of 26-year old hitters 8/$280 or so, I agree with you. But no one is jumping to give 1 or 2, let alone 3 or 4, extra years for what teams probably discount to almost worthless.

Look at the best 25 or under hitters from a decade ago. Basically the only who would be anywhere close to a huge 3/4 year contract would be Joey Votto. Almost everyone else is a bargain basement signing or on a contract their team regrets.

[bluestreak]

There's a difference between being the highest paid guy and getting the biggest contract in MLB history, though. Rendon will be jumped by Bryant probably next year. But who else is going to top Harper if he gets 12/400?

I was cool breaking Stanton's contract with Harper but not much further than that.

Arenado is going to top Rendon. They are both free agents after 2019 season.

[nfotiu]

There's a business aspect to this as well.  Harper pays for some of his salary himself.   It's not a stretch to say he's generated at least 20 million per year in ticket and merch sales.   He may not be one of the 3 best players in baseball, but he's one of the 3 biggest stars and gets kids to come to the games.  I don't know how long that will last, and he probably doesn't move the needle much for someone like the Dodgers, but he is a revenue generator here.  I also don't really know how you factor that into how much you're willing to pay him.

[bluestreak]

Nats give Indians INF Andrew Monasterio as PBTNL to complete Yan Gomes trade.

I’ll admit, I had never heard of the guy.

[UMDNats]

There's a business aspect to this as well.  Harper pays for some of his salary himself.   It's not a stretch to say he's generated at least 20 million per year in ticket and merch sales.   He may not be one of the 3 best players in baseball, but he's one of the 3 biggest stars and gets kids to come to the games.  I don't know how long that will last, and he probably doesn't move the needle much for someone like the Dodgers, but he is a revenue generator here.  I also don't really know how you factor that into how much you're willing to pay him.

He has more value for tickets and merchandise here than anywhere else probably. $20 million seems like a stretch because I don't think anyone is buying tickets to see Harper (or any baseball player) play but I'll admit I have no sense of scale for these things.

[Slateman]

I mean, this is a huge caveat, and it makes the statement worthless.

You're ignoring that the exact reason teams won't want to give Bryce Harper 12/$400 million is because he might be worthless or a platoon player by age-33, and they'd still be on the hook for 4/$150 million.

It's silly to talk about Mike Trout, who is projected for 9.2 WAR next year (Bryce is projected for 4.9). He's A-Rod and Harper is Stanton.

But yeah, if you want to say a lot of teams would give a lot of 26-year old hitters 8/$280 or so, I agree with you. But no one is jumping to give 1 or 2, let alone 3 or 4, extra years for what teams probably discount to almost worthless.

Look at the best 25 or under hitters from a decade ago. Basically the only who would be anywhere close to a huge 3/4 year contract would be Joey Votto. Almost everyone else is a bargain basement signing or on a contract their team regrets.

See I think their agents are going to say that if you want them you have to pay the extra deals. Or, in Trout's case, you have to make up the money somewhere. So yea, he may not sign 12 years, 400 million, but he would sign 8 years, 320 million, bringing his total up to 14 years, 464 million

[Slateman]

Nats give Indians INF Andrew Monasterio as PBTNL to complete Yan Gomes trade.

I’ll admit, I had never heard of the guy.

Looks like a utility infielder type. So ... Difo's replacement?

[Slateman]

I still like the idea of getting Jose Iglesias and moving Turner to 2B for a season or two. Then if you can't get Rendon  on a long term deal, you can keep Iglesias at SS, and play Keiboom at third.

[varoadking]

I still like the idea of getting Jose Iglesias and moving Turner to 2B for a season or two. Then if you can't get Rendon  on a long term deal, you can keep Iglesias at SS, and play Keiboom at third.

Royce's departure make re-signing Ant'ny a must...

[Slateman]

Royce's departure make re-signing Ant'ny a must...

It can be a "must" as much as you and the Nationals want, but if he don't want to be here, then he don't want to be here.

I think a lot of fans undervalue how important it is for a player to choose their own fate. They spend several years with no say in where they play, nor with whom. So when free agency comes, this could be the only chance they get. So I understand their reluctance to lock into a decision early.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

There's a business aspect to this as well.  Harper pays for some of his salary himself.   It's not a stretch to say he's generated at least 20 million per year in ticket and merch sales.   He may not be one of the 3 best players in baseball, but he's one of the 3 biggest stars and gets kids to come to the games.  I don't know how long that will last, and he probably doesn't move the needle much for someone like the Dodgers, but he is a revenue generator here.  I also don't really know how you factor that into how much you're willing to pay him.

With due respect, the tee shirt sale point is way overblown. Teams don't pocket that revenue. That is split among all teams. The Nats will make a mint off the Harper dodger Jersey sales next year. You only keep extra from your sales in your park.

[NJ Ave]

See I think their agents are going to say that if you want them you have to pay the extra deals. Or, in Trout's case, you have to make up the money somewhere. So yea, he may not sign 12 years, 400 million, but he would sign 8 years, 320 million, bringing his total up to 14 years, 464 million

The good thing is that we actually get to find this out, very shortly, and don't need to argue about it.

[UMDNats]

It can be a "must" as much as you and the Nationals want, but if he don't want to be here, then he don't want to be here.

I think a lot of fans undervalue how important it is for a player to choose their own fate. They spend several years with no say in where they play, nor with whom. So when free agency comes, this could be the only chance they get. So I understand their reluctance to lock into a decision early.

Definitely true, but on the flipside, a lot of players want the security and peace of mind that their first big-time, long-term deal brings. I think Rendon falls more into that mindset, though we never know.

[aBaltoNat]

Looks like a utility infielder type. So ... Difo's replacement?

He's the guy we got from the Cubs for Murphy.

[HalfSmokes]

With due respect, the tee shirt sale point is way overblown. Teams don't pocket that revenue. That is split among all teams. The Nats will make a mint off the Harper dodger Jersey sales next year. You only keep extra from your sales in your park.

This can’t be repeated enough. The nats only make more money from ticket and product sales at the park. Even incremental tv rating do nothing since they don’t own their own rights

[UMDNats]

This can’t be repeated enough. The nats only make more money from ticket and product sales at the park. Even incremental tv rating do nothing since they don’t own their own rights

Dmitri Young's smile brought in $500 million in revenue.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This can’t be repeated enough. The nats only make more money from ticket and product sales at the park. Even incremental tv rating do nothing since they don’t own their own rights

I honestly think Bryce switching teams will get them more tee shirt revenue because a whole new fan base will stock up on their Bryce shirts and the pie will be much bigger for all teams.   

Not to minimize the disappointment for a number of fans.  He is the marquis guy and his arrival brought a good period here.  The run was fun.  I just think the attendance will now rise or fall more on team success than on one guy's career ark.

[nfotiu]

With due respect, the tee shirt sale point is way overblown. Teams don't pocket that revenue. That is split among all teams. The Nats will make a mint off the Harper dodger Jersey sales next year. You only keep extra from your sales in your park.

Bryce Harper sells a lot of jerseys at the park though.  Kids ask their parents to bring them to games from out of town on weekends and they buy jerseys.   He's a big star, and brings in some revenue and adds to excitement at th park.   

[Slateman]

Bryce Harper sells a lot of jerseys at the park though.  Kids ask their parents to bring them to games from out of town on weekends and they buy jerseys.   He's a big star, and brings in some revenue and adds to excitement at th park.   

I'd like to see some evidence to jersey and player-specific merchandise at the ball park?