Roark is done. Get rid of him for anything. Or turn him into long relief. But he's done and he needs to be replaced. Back to back 4+ ERA seasons. At best, he's a number 5. On a competitive team, he's the guy you call up to be the 6th or 7th starter.
You also need someone who can pitch at or near Strasburg's level. It's a lock that Strasburg will get a trip to the DL next season and the Nationals need to be prepared to overcome it. That means finding a 4-6 WAR pitcher and slotting them as the number 3.
Patrick Corbin or Dallas Kuchel are the top options. Maybe Trevor Bauer if you believe in his resurgence. Nats could also target someone for the 4 spot as a trade. This is where signing Rendon long term would give you options, as Carter Keiboom could net you a decent young pitcher that can still develop. Andrew Heaney, German Marquez, or Robbie Ray. They could also sign another pitcher, like Tyson Ross or Clay Bucholz.
The next issue is the bullpen. Sean Doolittle is the Stephen Strasburg of closers. When he's healthy, he's dominant. Problem is, he never stays healthy. So again, you need to have someone ready to step in and take over the role, and then go back to setting up when Doolittle is back. Doolittle's salary isn't as prohibitive as Strasburg's, so I'm not opposed to trading him away to another team and 6 million salary and putting it towards Craig Kimbrel.
I'm hoping that Holland getting a chance here in DC and getting the opportunity to fix his delivery will keep him in DC on a more team friendly deal. Something in the neighborhood of 4-5 million per year. We basically give him the Sean Kelley role from 2015.
After that, at least one good reliever is needed. Maybe two.
So, plan for discussion:
1. Sign Patrick Corbin or Dallas Kuchel
2. Trade Sean Doolittle and Luis Garcia to the Dodgers for Alex Wood
3. Sign Craig Kimbrel, 4 years, 72 million
4. Re-sign Greg Holland 3 years, 14 million
5. Re-sign Kelvin Herrera on a one year deal, 1 year, 5 million
6. Convert Jefry Rodriguez into a reliever
7. Sign Garrett Richards to a 1 year deal, so he can rehab from TJS and be available in the second half of the year
Rotation
Scherzer
Corbin
Strasburg
Wood
Roark/Ross/Fedde
Bullpen
Kimbrel - Closer
Herrera - Set Up
Holland
Grace
Suero
Miller
Collins
Williams/Ross/Fedde/Roark
Groom Rodriguez to pitch out of the pen and he's your first call up for injury.
As a caveat to this, I would be willing to give up an awful lot to get Corbin Burnes and Josh Hader in a trade from the Brewers. The problem is I don't think we have what they are looking for. They clearly need an front of the rotation starter. So to do it, we'd have to get some sort of three team trade going. I wonder if Doolittle, Keiboom, Fedde, and Read would be enough to get Buehler from the Dodgers and flip him to the Brewers for Hader, Burnes, and maybe a fringe prospect like Luis Ortiz
