Sept 30th - 82 -80, the 6-month crapshow is finally over

[nfotiu]

47 games left is still a lot of games.  Pitching matchups give us a good chance to win the Cubs series. 

[GburgNatsFan]

The only problem is the Phils and Braves have done just about as well.

We dug ourselves a hole. Gonna be heard to get out of it if the Philthies and Braves keep shoveling dirt on top of us.

That can't be true. We suck 

[Greg_SRT]

The only problem is the Phils and Braves have done just about as well.

We dug ourselves a hole. Gonna be heard to get out of it if the Philthies and Braves keep shoveling dirt on top of us.

They’re not. We are gaining ground.

This division is still ours to win or lose.

[DPMOmaha]

They both have more difficult schedules than the Nats do, too.

[catocony]

They split the series with the Braves, and just like with the Marlins, that's firmly in taint territory. 

[HalfSmokes]

Come on now.

The Braves had to settle for a split with the Nats down 2 back end bullpen arms and our #2 SP.

The Braves pitched 3 of their best SP's in these 4 games. We pitched 2 Sky Chiefs.

And we split these 4 games 2 games a piece.

How can the Braves be good and at the same time the Nats be bad when less than 5 games separates them?

You’re right, the braves will never catch us now

[Elvir Ovcina]

5.5 back of the division, 4.5 back of the WC.

Which is the same division gap and one game knocked off the WC gap since this thread started, albeit with one fewer team ahead.  Slow progress.  Tough slog ahead, could be fun though.

[tomwvr]

They split the series with the Braves, and just like with the Marlins, that's firmly in taint territory.

You are correct this team is going to end 5 games below or 5 games above 500 and out of the playoffs.

[Elvir Ovcina]

They’re not. We are gaining ground.

This division is still ours to win or lose.

That's simply not true, at least on any recent scale.  The Nats were 5.5 out of the division on 7/31, and they're 5.5 out now, 10 days later.  In fact, a month ago they were 5.5 games out. 

[Greg_SRT]

That's simply not true.  The Nats were 5.5 out of the division on 7/31, and they're 5.5 out now, 10 days later.

And before 7/31?

[Elvir Ovcina]

And before 7/31?

Read the edited post.  Exactly a month ago, they were...wait for it... 5.5 games out. 

They haven't been closer than 5 or further than 7 since the end of June.  Also, do your own research in the future.  I'm not your research assistant.

[Greg_SRT]

Read the edited post.  Exactly a month ago, they were...wait for it... 5.5 games out. 

They haven't been closer than 5 or further than 7 since the end of June.  Also, do your own research in the future.  I'm not your research assistant.

So they were at some point further back than 5.5.

No thank you. You do what I tell you, not the other way around 

[HalfSmokes]

So they were at some point further back than 5.5.

No thank you. You do what I tell you, not the other way around 

And at some point they were closer than 5.5, so they’re both losing and making up ground at the same time

[Greg_SRT]

And at some point they were closer than 5.5, so they’re both losing and making up ground at the same time

Sure they took the lead at some point too

[HalfSmokes]

Sure they took the lead at some point too

But

They’re not. We are gaining ground.

Gaining ground is an odd way to refer to losing a lead

[Greg_SRT]

But

Gaining ground is an odd way to refer to losing a lead

Were we in worst shape when we were 7 back?

[HalfSmokes]

Were we in worst shape when we were 7 back?

Considering games left and series against the teams we’re trailing, probably not

[Elvir Ovcina]

So they were at some point further back than 5.5.

No thank you. You do what I tell you, not the other way around 

Yes, they were at one point seven games out.  It doesn't change the fact that since August 1, when they were 5 games out, they've LOST ground.  In other words, at one point, they gained some ground.  They're not still gaining it.  They're in exactly the same place as ten days ago.

Over the last month, they've gained exactly zero games.  Again, no gaining ground.  Even if you take the best possible projection of the pace at which they've "gained" ground - the last time they were 7 games out (an arbitrary line that makes absolutely no sense) -  they have picked up 1.5 games over the last 13 they have played - they will still not make up 5.5 games the rest of the way.  And again, that ignores (1) the fact that right before they "gained" that ground, they had lost it; (2) the fact that they've made up zero ground this month, and (3) that they've made up zero ground over the last calendar month.  Again, even under the most generous calculation of their "gaining" ground, they STILL come up short at the current pace.

So, please just pack it in.  They need to actually gain ground at a meaningful pace to close the gap.  They're not doing that. 

Were we in worst shape when we were 7 back?

Mathematically, we are in worse shape now, because we have significantly fewer games left. 

[Greg_SRT]

Yes, they were at one point seven games out.  It doesn't change the fact that since August 1, when they were 5 games out, they've LOST ground.  In other words, at one point, they gained some ground.  They're not still gaining it.  They're in exactly the same place as ten days ago.

Over the last month, they've gained exactly zero games.  Again, no gaining ground.  Even if you take the best possible projection of the pace at which they've "gained" ground - the last time they were 7 games out (an arbitrary line that makes absolutely no sense) -  they have picked up 1.5 games over the last 13 they have played - they will still not make up 5.5 games the rest of the way.  And again, that ignores (1) the fact that right before they "gained" that ground, they had lost it; (2) the fact that they've made up zero ground this month, and (3) that they've made up zero ground over the last calendar month.  Again, even under the most generous calculation of their "gaining" ground, they STILL come up short at the current pace.

So, please just pack it in.  They need to actually gain ground at a meaningful pace to close the gap.  They're not doing that.

Lots of words there.

If I believed WNFF instead of the 162, the Mets would have already won the division.

I don’t know what will happen, neither do you. But being 5.5 back with 47 to go and many games left against the teams above you doesn’t scream give up.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Lots of words there.

If I believed WNFF instead of the 162, the Mets would have already won the division.

I don’t know what will happen, neither do you. But being 5.5 back with 47 to go and many games left against the teams above you doesn’t scream give up.

it's doable, but they have to play better consistently

[Greg_SRT]

it's doable, but they have to play better consistently

100%

[Elvir Ovcina]

Lots of words there.

If I believed WNFF instead of the 162, the Mets would have already won the division.

I don’t know what will happen, neither do you. But being 5.5 back with 47 to go and many games left against the teams above you doesn’t scream give up.

It doesn't scream give up.  It screams that they need to play better than they have, specifically because they're not "gaining ground," which was your point.  It's 100% doable, even with two teams ahead of them (which makes things significantly more challenging).  It just isn't doable playing 3 games over .500.

Edit:  It seems the major stathead sites give the Nats between 10-25% odds to win the division at this point.  Somewhere in that range seems reasonable to me - an uphill climb to be sure, but doable.

[catocony]

They were in far better shape being 7 games out with 70 games to play than 5.5 with 47 games.  At the rate they're going, they'll draw even sometime in early November.  Too bad the season ends a month before then.

[rileyn]

Terrible pitching matchups for us this weekend.  Hendricks is the type of pitcher that we always struggle with, and then we face 2 lefties in Lester and Hamels. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

They were in far better shape being 7 games out with 70 games to play than 5.5 with 47 games.  At the rate they're going, they'll draw even sometime in early November.  Too bad the season ends a month before then.

honestly, the talent is there to pull off a 20-3 stretch. That's almost more credible than how badly they played from about 6/8 to the all star break.  Even before Strasburg gets back, an on-form Roark, Gio, Hellickson maintaining what he's been doing, and Scherzer could have a sustained stretch of <2 run, 6-7 inning starts, and Madson, Grace, maybe Glover and return to form Holland could be solid enough.  The line-up is capable of going on tears too.  I don't think it is likely, but I was shocked at how poorly they did in June and much of July, too.