Mark Reynolds

[bluestreak]

Let's say Royce is a fastball hitter...he sees nothing but breaking balls for a week and goes hitless but put the ball in play every AB.  Is it bad luck or the fact he can't hit a breaking ball?  Or is it bad luck that he didn't see a fastball?

Well it depends on how hard he’s hitting the ball, and his contact rate, and other things. But it’s pretty unlikely that a guy that can’t hit breaking balls, but somehow manages to put the bat on the ball in every at bat.
And you’ve seen my posts. Do I only cite BABIP? Or do I bring in a whole bunch of other stuff? It’s one part of the equation.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

It comes down to what you like.    You like all the stats and I like simply watchin' the game.    I like the blue sky and green grass.   I like to watch the guys slide head first into second on a double into the corner.     I don't need to know the reason he's BABIP'ing to enjoy the game of baseball.   It ain't right or wrong, we just enjoy the game differently.    I'm sure BABIP is a useful thing for some folks.   It's not for me.

I didn't say it's wrong.  And they aren't mutually exclusive.  You can understand and use stats and be a true baseball guy that wants to keep score at the games and smell the grass and whatever else.  That's the issue with your tone.  You act like you have to be a nerd that isn't a true baseball guy if you pay attention to advanced stats. 

[bluestreak]

One stat that I’m sad that hasn’t picked up more followers is wRC+. It’s perfect. It takes into account all hitting performance and offensive production. And it’s normalized to league average and adjusts for park effects. So it can adjust for whether Nolan Arenado or Charlie Blackmon are actually good or just good at Coors.  A man can dream.....

[mitlen]

I didn't say it's wrong.  And they aren't mutually exclusive.  You can understand and use stats and be a true baseball guy that wants to keep score at the games and smell the grass and whatever else.  That's the issue with your tone.  You act like you have to be a nerd that isn't a true baseball guy if you pay attention to advanced stats. 

Actually you missed my tone/meaning completely.     Enjoy the day.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Actually you missed my tone/meaning completely.     Enjoy the day.

You said you enjoy the game differently.  Seems to imply that if you pay attention to advanced stats that you don't also enjoy the elements of the game you stated you enjoy.  As I said, they aren't mutually exclusive. 

[varoadking]

I think I could get into it if they changed name of the term from BABIP to JOBU...



 

[GburgNatsFan]

Let's say Royce is a fastball hitter...he sees nothing but breaking balls for a week and goes hitless but put the ball in play every AB.  Is it bad luck or the fact he can't hit a breaking ball?  Or is it bad luck that he didn't see a fastball?

His terrible BAPIP would match his terrible BA and you'd know to look for a reason for his lack of success.  Which, in this case, you already know.

[bluestreak]

[varoadking]

I was gonna let this go, but, so you know, I do understand the primary definition of "Luck", also know in some circles as "BABIP"

Success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.

 

[varoadking]

His terrible BAPIP would match his terrible BA and you'd know to look for a reason for his lack of success.  Which, in this case, you already know.

Lucky me... 

[dracnal]

Actually you missed my tone/meaning completely.     Enjoy the day.

Whoof. Did not intend to kick off this much back and forthing. mitlen, I've never seen you post anything that'd make me classify you as a hater. And I meant that term in an affectionate way in any case, for the curmudgeons like VaRK who don't like the stats, and then use it in posts to try and mock/tease someone else who actually likes the stat (usually bluestreak).

I've always seen you as a go with the flow, you do you, I'll worry about me kind of guy. My post was very much not aimed at you.

[GburgNatsFan]

 

Lucky me... 

[UMDNats]

The problem with something like BABIP is when it is used in a vacuum.

"his BABIP is .280, he is just unlucky" may not be accurate if his line drive rate/hard-hit rate, etc is way down.

It, like all statistics, should be used in conjunction with other information to reach an accurate conclusion.

[dracnal]

I was gonna let this go, but, so you know, I do understand the primary definition of "Luck", also know in some circles as "BABIP"

Success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.

 

That's pretty much exactly it. IMO, that's largely what the stat tries to get a handle on. Based on a two week stretch in May, you absolutely drop Bryce like a rock and sign Reynolds to the 10 year/400M$ contract. Reynolds lucked into a hot streak that helped keep the team close to the Braves. When you compare his BABIP for that window to his career BABIP, you knew Reynolds was going to come crashing down.

Unless you think he decides to quit performing like Joe DiMaggio because he was getting a bit tired from running around the bases all the time, he got lucky for a couple of weeks.

[bluestreak]

Whoof. Did not intend to kick off this much back and forthing. mitlen, I've never seen you post anything that'd make me classify you as a hater. And I meant that term in an affectionate way in any case, for the curmudgeons like VaRK who don't like the stats, and then use it in posts to try and mock/tease someone else who actually likes the stat (usually bluestreak).

I've always seen you as a go with the flow, you do you, I'll worry about me kind of guy. My post was very much not aimed at you.

I didn’t think it was aimed at Mitlen either. He seems so be the live and let live type.

[varoadking]

I didn’t think it was aimed at Mitlen either. He seems so be the live and let live type.

As opposed to the curmudgeons among us... 

[Baseball is Life]

[bluestreak]

As opposed to the curmudgeons among us... 

BABIP

[GburgNatsFan]

Well, yes. 

As opposed to the curmudgeons among us... 

[varoadking]

Well, yes. 

[GburgNatsFan]

[HalfSmokes]

You guys realize BABIP can indicate good luck? You can use a high BABIP to crap on a player’s hot streak too. Maybe that will make it more popular here...

Isnt pointing out an abnormally high babip just a nice way of saying a guy sucks?

[bluestreak]

Isnt pointing out an abnormally high babip just a nice way of saying a guy sucks?

Yes. That’s why I figured WNFF would like that aspect.

[NatsAllThe Way]

No chance... 

I'm the designated guy to be cyber-bullied by all the Americans.   

[Natsinpwc]

I'm the designated guy to be cyber-bullied by all the Americans.   

We need to charge you a tarrif to post here.