Mark Reynolds

[bluestreak]

But what is his babip?

I know this isn’t serious, but I’ll answer because it’s halftimw of the game I’m watching. Over last 15 games— .133

[mitlen]

I know this isn’t serious, but I’ll answer because it’s halftimw of the game I’m watching. Over last 15 games— .133

Is that bad?

[varoadking]

Is that bad?

Just bad luck, I tell ya...

[dracnal]

I know it's been done to death here, but I find the BABIP hate just so weird. Of all the 'advanced' stats, it's the one that is the least weird, analytical, or whatever. Take the old cliche, 'Put the ball in play, and good things are bound to happen,' or, 'Shorten up and make contact with two strikes,' and that's what it is measuring.  When you don't walk, or strikeout or get a home run, you put the ball in play. How often you get on base when you do can be compared to your batting average pretty easily.  If it's a lot lower than your batting average, you've been getting lucky with home runs and unfortunately, hit balls straight at defenders. If it's significantly higher than your batting average, you've been dropping balls where people aren't.

When you compare someone's BABIP for the last two weeks or a month or whatever and compare it to their overall career BABIP, you can pretty much immediately determine if a guy is having a cold streak, a hot streak, or if he's just playing at his normal potential.

[mitlen]

I know it's been done to death here, but I find the BABIP hate just so weird. Of all the 'advanced' stats, it's the one that is the least weird, analytical, or whatever. Take the old cliche, 'Put the ball in play, and good things are bound to happen,' or, 'Shorten up and make contact with two strikes,' and that's what it is measuring.  When you don't walk, or strikeout or get a home run, you put the ball in play. How often you get on base when you do can be compared to your batting average pretty easily.  If it's a lot lower than your batting average, you've been getting lucky with home runs and unfortunately, hit balls straight at defenders. If it's significantly higher than your batting average, you've been dropping balls where people aren't.

When you compare someone's BABIP for the last two weeks or a month or whatever and compare it to their overall career BABIP, you can pretty much immediately determine if a guy is having a cold streak, a hot streak, or if he's just playing at his normal potential.

Where's the "hate"?     I was serious.     I don't follow BABIP so I'm not sure what's good or bad.

[bluestreak]

It’s actually really puzzling to me too. It’s a pretty useful stat. It’s weird to see so many people dismiss it out of hand. Especially since in the cases it’s brought up here, it typically works exactly how it’s suppsed to.

[HalfSmokes]

People mock stats when they become the default excuse for poor performance.

[varoadking]

It’s actually really puzzling to me too. It’s a pretty useful stat. It’s weird to see so many people dismiss it out of hand. Especially since in the cases it’s brought up here, it typically works exactly how it’s suppsed to.

Because it's premise is "luck."

Do we apply a separate stat to field goal kickers when they hit the upright, or a basketball player when they clank one off the rim, and say "they're getting close?"  Does hockey count a shot off the pipes as a shot on goal or save?

Pace of play and all that malarkey isn't "killing" the game...all of this made-up over-analysis is... 

[varoadking]

People mock stats when they become the default excuse for poor performance.

This...and that is all BABIP is...

Well said... 

[spidernat]

[mitlen]

This...and that is all BABIP is...

Well said... 

The part I don't understand is if you don't follow BABIP or question its usefullness, ya gotta be a "hater".     There's gotta be something wrong with your appreciation of a player's ability if you don't use BABIP.     It's OK not to agree with the latest made up crap.

[GburgNatsFan]

Jesus, you two are dinosaurs.

[NatsAllThe Way]

I always thought BABIP was more the effect of a player sucking at bat, not the cause.   

[spidernat]

This...and that is all BABIP is...

Well said... 

That's the smallest part of it for me. And I'm laughing more at the pied pipers that came up with the stats and the rats that follow them than at the stat itself.

[mitlen]

Jesus, you two are dinosaurs.

Exactly my point.   There's gotta be something wrong with us.    You're old.    You don't get it.       

[spidernat]

    It's OK not to agree with the latest made up crap.

Jesus, you two are dinosaurs.

It's official then. I'm an old fart.

[varoadking]

Player A hits a ball to left field and it drops for a hit because Werth is out there.  Hits the exact same ball out on the next AB and Mike Trout is out there standing in the same spot that Werth was and he catches it. 

Which one is the result of 'luck?"  Neither?  Both?

[varoadking]

Exactly my point.   There's gotta be something wrong with us.    You're old.    You don't get it.       

 

[bluestreak]

People mock stats when they become the default excuse for poor performance.

Stats aren’t an excuse. They are stats. They are just an attempt to explain why something is happening. Look at Reynolds: through May 26 he had a BABIP of .416 and a batting average of .454. Mark Reynolds has a career BABIP of .304. It was pretty clear that he hadn’t changed his approach and some of his success was due to luck. Now his BABIP is .133 it’s likely that he’s not a .133 hitter, but that his luck is evening out. And if you look at his season BABIP it’s closer to his career number than either of the splits.

These guys have thousands of plate appearances. They take many more thousands of swings. They are who they are. If a career .300 hitter has a stretch where he’s batting .100, you want to know why. These guys are too good and too consistent for it just to be “poor performance.”  Trying to explain why makes it easier to figure out what to expect for the future and determine whether changes need to be made or if it can be waited out.

But it’s kinda indicative of the culture here and in society in general that when a guy has a bad stretch the default is “he sucks” and there is little effort to get to the bottom of it.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

The part I don't understand is if you don't follow BABIP or question its usefullness, ya gotta be a "hater".     There's gotta be something wrong with your appreciation of a player's ability if you don't use BABIP.     It's OK not to agree with the latest made up crap.

How is it made up?  There is nothing subjective about it.  It's straight math.  No single stat in baseball tells all for a player.  It's another tool to evaluate players.  And BABIP in and of itself isn't all that informative.  You'd need to pair it with what percentage of balls that player hits o the ground.  What percent are fly balls.  What percent are line drives.  Is the player speedy?  Speedy players beat out more grounders.  If a slow guy is hitting a ton of grounders and has a high BABIP and high average, you can say they are lucky.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Player A hits a ball to left field and it drops for a hit because Werth is out there.  Hits the exact same ball out on the next AB and Mike Trout is out there standing in the same spot that Werth was and he catches it. 

Which one is the result of 'luck?"  Neither?  Both?

These stats aren't meant to apply to a single at bat being lucky or unlucky.  They are meant to look at over a large sample size, which in theory things level out as far as your competition, weather, anything else. 

[varoadking]

But it’s kinda indicative of the culture here and in society in general that when a guy has a bad stretch the default is “he sucks” and there is little effort to get to the bottom of it.

Let's say Royce is a fastball hitter...he sees nothing but breaking balls for a week and goes hitless but put the ball in play every AB.  Is it bad luck or the fact he can't hit a breaking ball?  Or is it bad luck that he didn't see a fastball?

[bluestreak]

I always thought BABIP was more the effect of a player sucking at bat, not the cause.   

You guys realize BABIP can indicate good luck? You can use a high BABIP to crap on a player’s hot streak too. Maybe that will make it more popular here...

[mitlen]

How is it made up?  There is nothing subjective about it.  It's straight math.  No single stat in baseball tells all for a player.  It's another tool to evaluate players.  And BABIP in and of itself isn't all that informative.  You'd need to pair it with what percentage of balls that player hits o the ground.  What percent are fly balls.  What percent are line drives.  Is the player speedy?  Speedy players beat out more grounders.  If a slow guy is hitting a ton of grounders and has a high BABIP and high average, you can say they are lucky.

It comes down to what you like.    You like all the stats and I like simply watchin' the game.    I like the blue sky and green grass.   I like to watch the guys slide head first into second on a double into the corner.     I don't need to know the reason he's BABIP'ing to enjoy the game of baseball.   It ain't right or wrong, we just enjoy the game differently.    I'm sure BABIP is a useful thing for some folks.   It's not for me.   

[varoadking]

You guys realize BABIP can indicate good luck? You can use a high BABIP to crap on a player’s hot streak too. Maybe that will make it more popular here...

No chance...