Juan Soto - The Truth making it in DC this year

[GburgNatsFan]

We initially traded for Eaton to be our CF.  I'm guessing the OF is Soto/Eaton/Harper with Goodwin and Turner getting a lot of playing time and acting as defensive substitutes.

I would be surprised if Turner isn't starting full time in CF. I also wouldn't be surprised if Soto goes back down for awhile. If not that, we need trade an outfielder.

[dracnal]

I would be surprised if Turner isn't starting full time in CF. I also wouldn't be surprised if Soto goes back down for awhile. If not that, we need trade an outfielder.

Wait, when did we decide Turner would go back to outfield? Is this just a case two posts on a row folks mean MAT? Am really feeling like I missed something, somewhere.

[imref]

Wait, when did we decide Turner would go back to outfield? Is this just a case two posts on a row folks mean MAT? Am really feeling like I missed something, somewhere.

uh, substitute "Taylor" for "Turner" in the above.

[dracnal]

uh, substitute "Taylor" for "Turner" in the above.

Okay, whew. I'm not going crazy.

[varoadking]

We initially traded for Eaton to be our CF.  I'm guessing the OF is Soto/Eaton/Harper with Goodwin and Turner getting a lot of playing time and acting as defensive substitutes.

We're putting Turner back in the outfield?

Nevermind...jeebus, you get a lot of things wrong... 

[Slateman]

Martinez likes messing with the lineup

[GburgNatsFan]

Not the same moribund approach we've seen in the past. Not that I know much, but I like this approach better. Hasn't hurt so far. Players stay flexible.

Martinez likes messing with the lineup

[catocony]

We initially traded for Eaton to be our CF.  I'm guessing the OF is Soto/Eaton/Harper with Goodwin and Turner getting a lot of playing time and acting as defensive substitutes.

Eaton was put into center, but the trade was made so he would replace Werth this season.  Even Eaton has admitted he's not great in center and much prefers corner outfield.

[bluestreak]

Eaton was put into center, but the trade was made so he would replace Werth this season.  Even Eaton has admitted he's not great in center and much prefers corner outfield.

Eaton was a 6 win player as a corner outfielder and a 2-3 win player in CF. And this is before he blew out his knee. He has no business playing regular CF, at least until we are certain that he has his legs back with the expectation that may never happen.

[imref]

We're putting Turner back in the outfield?

Nevermind...jeebus, you get a lot of things wrong... 

i tripped over a base earlier today.

[Count Walewski]

Soto's getting SO plunked in Atlanta. They're not gonna like the way he celebrates after getting a single.

[GburgNatsFan]

Soto's getting SO plunked in Atlanta. They're not gonna like the way he celebrates after getting a single.

They've got young, expressive hitters too. Chipper and Brian McCann are gone.

[NJ Ave]

Eaton was a 6 win player as a corner outfielder and a 2-3 win player in CF. And this is before he blew out his knee. He has no business playing regular CF, at least until we are certain that he has his legs back with the expectation that may never happen.

OF defense is an area where I really don't trust WAR, personally. WAR is based on silly third-hand metrics, and the MLB clubs all have access to much more sophisticated data to evaluate defensive value. Based on UZR, Eaton on the White Sox was a pretty bad CF, or a slightly above-average CF, depending on the year (2 bad years, 2 okay years). By DRS, he was WORTH 11 runs one year in CF, and COST 14 runs the next year. Likewise, he's probably not really a 20-run RF.

The publicly available metrics are based around how many balls a player catches, based on how many they are expected to catch. That kind of outcome-based analysis is inherently flawed compared to clubs being able to look at reaction times, acceleration rates, top speeds, as well as understanding the impact the club's own positioning had on the outcome of the play.

So I'm not saying that Adam Eaton should or should not be a CF again, but I bet the Nationals can make that call with a lot better evidence than we can based on Fangraphs data. Personally, I'm fine with moving him to CF if he's even slightly below average, because of the offensive boost we'd get.

[Slateman]

OF defense is an area where I really don't trust WAR, personally. WAR is based on silly third-hand metrics, and the MLB clubs all have access to much more sophisticated data to evaluate defensive value. Based on UZR, Eaton on the White Sox was a pretty bad CF, or a slightly above-average CF, depending on the year (2 bad years, 2 okay years). By DRS, he was WORTH 11 runs one year in CF, and COST 14 runs the next year. Likewise, he's probably not really a 20-run RF.

The publicly available metrics are based around how many balls a player catches, based on how many they are expected to catch. That kind of outcome-based analysis is inherently flawed compared to clubs being able to look at reaction times, acceleration rates, top speeds, as well as understanding the impact the club's own positioning had on the outcome of the play.

So I'm not saying that Adam Eaton should or should not be a CF again, but I bet the Nationals can make that call with a lot better evidence than we can based on Fangraphs data. Personally, I'm fine with moving him to CF if he's even slightly below average, because of the offensive boost we'd get.

You have 3000+ innings of him in CF to evaluate.

The metrics of OF defense are interesting. RF actually values arm strength more than the other two OF positions. It's why Bryce Harper has managed to look above average in the metrics, despite taking poor routes on a regular basis. His arm makes up for it. Likewise, the year Eaton played RF, he was gunning people down.

In CF, range is emphasized more. This makes sense, given the nature of CF.

[NJ Ave]

You have 3000+ innings of him in CF to evaluate.

Right, and the 3000+ innings say that he's -4.3 runs per 150 games (UZR) or about -5 runs per 150 games (DRS). That's doesn't scream "don't play me in CF". Trout, McCutchen, Springer, Denard Span all played at that level last season.

Granted it would be great to have a great-hitting CF who also fields really well, but that's not the situation we find ourselves in. All I'm saying is putting Adam Eaton in CF isn't necessarily like putting Adam Dunn in LF.

If the choice is Michael Taylor being a +10 run CF and a -20 offensive CF, vs. Adam Eaton being a -5 run CF and a +20 offensive CF, that's a 2.5 win difference. Clear choice.

[Slateman]

Right, and the 3000+ innings say that he's -4.3 runs per 150 games (UZR) or about -5 runs per 150 games (DRS). That's doesn't scream "don't play me in CF". Trout, McCutchen, Springer, Denard Span all played at that level last season.

Granted it would be great to have a great-hitting CF who also fields really well, but that's not the situation we find ourselves in. All I'm saying is putting Adam Eaton in CF isn't necessarily like putting Adam Dunn in LF.

If the choice is Michael Taylor being a +10 run CF and a -20 offensive CF, vs. Adam Eaton being a -5 run CF and a +20 offensive CF, that's a 2.5 win difference. Clear choice.

3000+ innings is more than a season. It's actually about 2.5 to 3 seasons worth of data.

McCutchen was moved to a corner OF spot due to his declining defense.
SPan is 34. Eaton is 27. Span's decline is likely due to age and reduced speed.
Springer has a third of the time in CF total that Eaton does. And he has always been considered a corner OFer.
Trout's last 3000 innings or so have resulted in positive defensive metrics.

I think there's enough evidence to support the conclusion that Eaton is a "meh" CFer, defensively speaking. It's a matter of deciding whether or not that defensive downgrade is worth the offensive upside of Soto or Matt Adams in LF.

[NJ Ave]

3000+ innings is more than a season. It's actually about 2.5 to 3 seasons worth of data.

This was accounted for. -14 DRS in 2.5-3 seasons of data. UZR/150 is just UZR/150. Agree he's a meh CF. Soto looks like a fine LF, Adams not so much. I wouldn't play Adams in LF and Eaton in CF. Possibly there's a way to play Adams in LF when Taylor plays CF, while most of the time Soto plays with Eaton.

Frankly someone needs to innovate OF defense metrics the same way 82 games did for NBA metrics with 5-man units. I'm much more interested in finding out, AS A UNIT, how many balls did a 3-man group get to, than in knowing how many balls each player got to individually. The point is just to catch the balls, regardless of who gets to it first (which is very positioning-dependent).

[Elvir Ovcina]

This was accounted for. -14 DRS in 2.5-3 seasons of data. UZR/150 is just UZR/150. Agree he's a meh CF. Soto looks like a fine LF, Adams not so much. I wouldn't play Adams in LF and Eaton in CF. Possibly there's a way to play Adams in LF when Taylor plays CF, while most of the time Soto plays with Eaton.

Frankly someone needs to innovate OF defense metrics the same way 82 games did for NBA metrics with 5-man units. I'm much more interested in finding out, AS A UNIT, how many balls did a 3-man group get to, than in knowing how many balls each player got to individually. The point is just to catch the balls, regardless of who gets to it first (which is very positioning-dependent).

He was a meh CF at age 26 and 27 (and even worse in a small sample size last season), all before blowing out his ACL and doing whatever amazing specimen of destruction he did on his ankle.  He's now 6 months from being 30 with that injury history.  The best solution may well be still to put him there, but I'd set expectations of his defense in CF very, very low at this point.  It's a good thing he and Harper have good arms with all the gappers they'd be chasing down.

[NJ Ave]

The best solution may well be still to put him there, but I'd set expectations of his defense in CF very, very low at this point.

I'm pretty sure everyone, including me, is simply restating versions of this and pretending to disagree.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I believe Soto goes down to AAA even before Zimmerman is back. 

When Eaton and Murphy return (which could be a week from today), you have the regular infield plus Difo for 5 roster slots, 2 catchers, 5 starting pitchers, and at least a 7 man bullpen, perhaps 8 if you don't want to send down Solis as well as Suero and Gott (Grace, Madson for decisions, and there's still 8 in the pen before the first two moves).  That's 19-20 players before you even get to the OF.  You are probably keeping Adams and Reynolds (who can play 3d and maybe 2d), so that puts you up to 21-22.  Eaton plus Harper gets you to 23-24, leaving Taylor, Goodwin, and Soto for 1-2 slots in the OF, and those 3 plus Solis (or release / trade Kelley) for the last roster slots. 

Probably you see Soto sent down to maximize depth, Taylor / Goodwin splitting time in center, and some sort of pitching move beyond Gott and Suero to get down to a 7 man bullpen.  Bench is a little too left handed for my taste, but that's not easily fixable.

[aspenbubba]

So at 4:30 this morning I started wondering who goes down or even traded when Eaton returns after June 8. If Soto cools down for several weeks then it is a no-brainer. That leaves Taylor and Goodwin as the candidates. Taylor is clearlt the better defender and Goodwin can play all 3 OF positions with more "pop". Wouldn't want to be Rizzo at this juncture. Also Reynolds could be the odd man out but they are having him take reps at 3B.

[Smithian]

Small sample size so far, but I did not expect Soto to do this well. He will cool off, but if he even keeps his OPS above .800 by the end of this season then I think it is safe to say we had a game changing hitter slip through our system and we forgot to notice him thanks to Robles.

Nationals had some good, young bats for the long term with Robles, Turner, and Rendon ( ). But Soto may be the one guy in the system who looks like he could fit at first base. We haven't had a power prospect in the system since Matt Skole broke his leg.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I'm pretty sure everyone, including me, is simply restating versions of this and pretending to disagree.

No way, I'm not disagreeing. 

[bluestreak]

I agree with most of the analysis above, and just wanted to add one thing. Eaton is a “meh” CF before he blew out his knee. I don’t think it’s a given he gets back to his baseline ability. I would not put him in CF unless he can prove he’s back to the “meh” level of ability. There’s the potential that he could actually be bad out there.

[imref]

So if Eaton isn't going to play center, that means Soto heads to AAA and Eaton moves into LF, with Taylor staying in CF, maybe platooning with Goodwin.

That's a tough decision for Rizzo to make with the way Soto is playing.