Juan Soto - The Truth making it in DC this year

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

I'm sure at the start of the year the answer was 100% no within the front office.  He obviously has to show he can hit for more than 1 game in AA and then maybe AAA, but this could be a teenager we see this year...maybe even prior to September.  Bryce Harper is obviously a generational talent, but he started on a 2012 playoff team.  Especially if Eaton isn't healthy later this summer (which I expect him to be), instead of making a trade, Soto could be an option if he's still raking in the minors.

5/21 edit: s/make it to/make it in -Squab
7/7 edit - retitled again when merged with the "truths" thread

[imref]

if he keeps mashing then of course he'll be here this year.    Only issue is where to play him.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

if he keeps mashing then of course he'll be here this year.    Only issue is where to play him.

With our injury troubles, that just may sort itself out.  We're using Siera...who I never heard of prior to this year...Stevenson.

[dcpatti]

Raking in A/AA is a bit misleading because so few of those pitchers have real breaking balls. Maybe a little later in the AA season after the pitchers have more experience, would be a better indication of how close to major league ready he is. I still think he’ll get a little time in September, but more for his benefit than to actually contribute to the team. I’d love to have him exceed my expectations though!

[Mattionals]

Raking in A/AA is a bit misleading because so few of those pitchers have real breaking balls. Maybe a little later in the AA season after the pitchers have more experience, would be a better indication of how close to major league ready he is. I still think he’ll get a little time in September, but more for his benefit than to actually contribute to the team. I’d love to have him exceed my expectations though!

It does suck though that AAA hasn't become a proving ground much anymore as it seems most teams use it as a taxi squad for stashing their depth. I think teams expect to see their pitchers hone offspeed stuff at the MLB level now.

[GburgNatsFan]

The Harrisburg Senators say "oh, shut up."

It does suck though that AAA hasn't become a proving ground much anymore as it seems most teams use it as a taxi squad for stashing their depth. I think teams expect to see their pitchers hone offspeed stuff at the MLB level now.

[Mattionals]

The Harrisburg Senators say "oh, shut up."

I think I'm missing the joke? 

[GburgNatsFan]

Prospects are at AA, in Harrisburg, and Senators fans like that just fine.

I think I'm missing the joke? 

[Monarch]

If he rakes over the next 2-4 weeks in AA its going to be really hard to keep him down for much longer...I also think Robles will be in DC this year as well. Just not for a while obviously.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

There's a Soto thread in the Farm section, but I'll leave this here for a bit.

I would expect him to get a good 2 months in AA, to mid-July, maybe 3.  That way, pitchers can see him twice and adjust, and there will be a book on him with pitchers who can execute a plan and have stuff.  It'll be a good test.  Even AAA might be good so he can face a few guys who are AAAA who throw slop with command.

[LoveAngelos]

Don't  want him here this year. He will just get hurt

[Slateman]

There's a Soto thread in the Farm section, but I'll leave this here for a bit.

I would expect him to get a good 2 months in AA, to mid-July, maybe 3.  That way, pitchers can see him twice and adjust, and there will be a book on him with pitchers who can execute a plan and have stuff.  It'll be a good test.  Even AAA might be good so he can face a few guys who are AAAA who throw slop with command.

Pretty much this. Single A is about showing you can hit s fastball. Double A is where pitchers start having decent breaking stuff. Soto needs to show he can hit it. He isn't Robles.  He doesn't have amazing speed. His defense is LF worthy at best. He has to have the hit tool

[Optics]

He'll definitely get called up in September.

[catocony]

There is zero purpose of adding any prospect to the 40-man before you have to.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

There is zero purpose of adding any prospect to the 40-man before you have to.

agreed.  If there's a role, then he gets added.  Otherwise, keep him off the roster so he doesn't accrue service time.  I don't care if he spends a month shagging flies and hitting BP here until the AFL starts.  Just don't add him the roster.  I don't want to be forced to keep him down artificially when he is needed just to manipulate service time.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I'd be surprised to see him this season, but I was surprised to see Robles up last season.   Soto missed much of last season with injuries, and without that he almost certainly would have been in Potomac at the end of last season, and either there or Harrisburg at the beginning of this one.  So him getting to AA now isn't as much a shocking rise as much as it is him making up for the lost time of last season.

Like others have said, AA is a different animal to the Carolina League.  I saw him at Hagerstown and he did fine with same-side breaking pitches there, but a Sally League show-me curve is not the same thing as breaking pitches with bite and location that are coming off mid-90s fastballs, which you start to see a lot more of in AA.   I do think AAA is useful, especially for unusually young prospects, as you face older pitchers who have a few more tricks up their sleeves.

The defense is what it is.   When I saw him in April, he looked like he was covering more ground in the OF than when I'd seen him before, but I don't think he has the arm for RF in the majors.   Assuming the improvement I saw was real, he can probably stick in LF with a good defensive CF (like MAT or Robles, once he finishes developing) next to him.   

[catocony]

Soto could be Mannie Ramirez, or he could be Wily Mo Pena.  I'm suspicious of guys who are mashers at the plate but can't run the bases well and with atrocious defense. 

[mitlen]

He's in Bowie tonight (TU and WE).

[Natsinpwc]

He's in Bowie tonight (TU and WE).

Too close to Baltimore.

[Natsinpwc]

Soto could be Mannie Ramirez, or he could be Wily Mo Pena.  I'm suspicious of guys who are mashers at the plate but can't run the bases well and with atrocious defense.

That's interesting. I tend to think that MLB scouts overvalue guys who can run and have good arms over those who are just good hitters. Rhys Hoskins is a good example. He was never on the top prospects list despite hitting well at all levels. In comparison Dom Brown was an overall number 2. But he couldn't handle big league pitching. The speed and arm didn't help him stay in baseball.

[mitlen]

Too close to Baltimore.

Yeah, that's pretty much a day trip for me.

[Ray D]

Too close to Baltimore.

Actually closer to Nationals Park than Camden Yards.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Soto could be Mannie Ramirez, or he could be Wily Mo Pena.  I'm suspicious of guys who are mashers at the plate but can't run the bases well and with atrocious defense.

He's not nearly as big as either of those guys (although Ramirez was around Soto's size when he came up) and moves much better than either of them.  He's not a big oaf - in fact, one of my concerns about potentially moving him to 1B is that he's a little small for the position.  He's not actually that big of a guy at all - listed at 6'1"/185, which seems about right from seeing him in person.  The defense is ok, not "atrocious" in any respect. 

[varoadking]

Actually closer to Nationals Park than Camden Yards.

Like he said...too close to Baltimore... 

[mitlen]

Like he said...too close to Baltimore... 

Anything beyond the beltway in MD is too close.