The Window - 2019 and Beyond

[imref]

Looking at FA's:

2019: Harper, Murphy, Wieters, Madson, Gio (QO), Kelley, Adams, Montero and a few other guys in AAA

Replacements: Robles, Kieboom (would be he ready for 2B in 2019?), Difo, Severino

2020: Kendrick, Eaton, Rendon, Roark

Replacements: Soto, Kieboom (if he's not up in 2019)

Is the window closing?  Or are we good for the next few years?

[HalfSmokes]

Strasburg has opt outs. I don’t know how long you can stay at the top of a division with a consistently average farm system, but time will tell

[sph274]

a lot depends on how soto, kieboom, and ross develop over the next two years. I do think we will sign at least one of harper and rendon to long term contracts, which will do a lot in extending the "window". but if robles can turn into a legit mlb OF than i dont see why we cant keep this going a few more years, especially since it seems like max will have a non-traditional aging curve

[UMDNats]

Strasburg has opt outs. I don’t know how long you can stay at the top of a division with a consistently average farm system, but time will tell

I basically assume after 2020 or 2021, we're totally freaked and have to do a full rebuild. it basically all depends on Scherzer and Strasburg to me.

[bluestreak]

Eaton has a 2020 and 2021 team option, no?

[Slateman]

Its closing. The issue isn't just pending free agents, it's the pending decline of major salary earners. You can't expect Max to pitch like this for much longer. Zimmerman is getting older. Stras has never been durable 

[Truconfidence]

Eaton has a 2020 and 2021 team option, no?

correct also i think Zim has 1 in 2020 also.

[MarquisDeSade]

How DC would that be - draft two once in a generation talents, have a loaded roster, and never make it to the big dance.

[Minty Fresh]

How DC would that be - draft two once in a generation talents, have a loaded roster, and never make it to the big dance.

#Word

[bluestreak]

How DC would that be - draft two once in a generation talents, have a loaded roster, and never make it to the big dance.

Are they “once in a generation” talent though? If those guys had actually performed like Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw, we would be having a different conversation I imagine.

[MarquisDeSade]

Are they “once in a generation” talent though? If those guys had actually performed like Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw, we would be having a different conversation I imagine.

Mike Trout alone can’t save the Angels.

[HalfSmokes]

Besides, the nats preferred drafting a closer to trout, surely our great scout gm wouldn’t miss that one

[dcpatti]

I think it's unlikely that Strasburg opts out. His wife really likes it here. They have two little ones and there's rumors of a third on the way. Heck, *HE* really likes it here, and he detests the spotlight and drama associated with contract talks. I don't think Stras puts himself through the media circus and risks not having new demands met.  The Nats have let other guys walk rather than getting into a bidding war; I don't think Stras really wants to test if they would do it again.

I think it's very likely that the Nats retain one of either Rendon or Harper. I think the odds of them retaining both are greater than the odds of them retaining neither.

I think the operation the Nats are building in the DR is pretty impressive, given how recently it was that they felt burned and were keeping their distance.

I don't think the window is closing-- I do think there are some very valid concerns, especially when it comes to the lack of pitching talent in the farm, but I don't think the Nats are looking at a Phillies-level rebuild.  Probably 2020 or 2021 as a "tuneup" year might be more realistic.  Regardless, I think a stronger NL East would be to our advantage.  Maybe if they have to actually fight for a division title, they won't sleep through the NLDS.

[Smithian]

I don't ever look seriously past the next season. We don't know what will happen in free agency, what prospects will take off, who won't, etc.

We'll be good next season. The top of the rotation with Strasburg and Scherzer will be sick and the lineup at minimum will be built around Eaton, Rendon, and Eaton. No reason those three alone can't be north of 15 WAR. Lots of useful players like Taylor, Zimmerman, and Difo surround them. Toss in a a  solid free agent or retain Harper and that is a hell of a lineup. That doesn't even take into account if Robles comes in and take off. Even if Harper leaves, there is more than enough firepower to make the playoffs and if you make the playoffs, anything is possible.

[Natsinpwc]

Lots depends on injuries. The Phillies didn't think they were rebuilding until Halladay, Lee, Howard and Utley all had injuries that either ended their careers or rendered them useless.

[varoadking]

We'll be good next season. The top of the rotation with Strasburg and Scherzer will be sick and the lineup at minimum will be built around Eaton, Rendon, and Eaton.

That's putting quite a load on Eaton... 

[Count Walewski]

There are several examples of teams winning championships immediately after the departure of a famous or marquee player. It would be a mistake to assume that Harper going away would by itself close the window. The aging of our pitching staff is a far bigger threat.

[NationalHeat]

We all thought the window would close after 2015, so...

Don't discount the nearly $80 million freed up this offseason.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I think PB69 hit on a decent point about the "window" in his dump on Davey thread.  The window was as much about other teams in the division being bad as it was about the Nats being an elite team.  The division is getting better at the same time some of the talent here will be rolling off the roster.

I'm optimistic about extending the time this team will be a contender for several more years.  Granted, it'll depend in part on a few high potential, highly thought of position prospects like Robles, Soto, Kieboom, and Antuna coming being at least above-average regulars, but don't forget that there is a ton of money that comes off the roster if the Harpers / Murphys / Gonzalezes / Madsons are not brought back. Heck, there's $20MM or so among the Wieters, Kelley, Montero and Adams, none of whom look to be irreplaceable keys. That can get reallocated to other talented guys who can supplement the hold overs.  Eaton will be here because of the options, as will Turner. I could be happy with Taylor stepping back if Goodwin is a decent
<----
with him.  Keeping Rendon is kind of key, I/M/O.  Short of that, you need Kieboom to develop into a regular or spend for stop gap FAs perhaps at the end of their careers year to year.

[HalfSmokes]

It's not the guys leaving or aging that worries me, it's the farm/development system. Strasburg is the last legitimate starter this system has given the nats; the next closest is Roark. That's about as far from an elite system as you can get 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It's not the guys leaving or aging that worries me, it's the farm/development system. Strasburg is the last legitimate starter this system has given the nats; the next closest is Roark. That's about as far from an elite system as you can get 

I'm not so down on their pitching development.  I think Robbie Ray is a pretty good talent, post-stras. Also, I suspect Giolito is being undervalued here. Fedde is going to be the real test.  They made a judgment they could strip the system in the Eaton trade because they had guys under contract and Fedde would develop to fill in when there's a need to put in a #3 behind S & S.

[Smithian]

Have to disagree with this idea the Nats window is directly tied to a poor division.

The 2017 Nationals had a winning record against the NL Central and NL West plus were 10-10 against the AL.

Over a 162 game schedule, the Nats winning percentage in non-NL East games would out them at 94 wins. If anything, they didn't do a good enough job cleaning up in the East.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Have to disagree with this idea the Nats window is directly tied to a poor division.

The 2017 Nationals had a winning record against the NL Central and NL West plus were 10-10 against the AL.

Over a 162 game schedule, the Nats winning percentage in non-NL East games would out them at 94 wins. If anything, they didn't do a good enough job cleaning up in the East.

It does not matter what pace you set against other divisions as long as no one in your division comes within 20 games of your pace. The lack of another good team in the division also winning is what is important. 

Compare what the Dodgers and Cubs had to go through to win their divisions to what the Nats had to do last year.  They both had other strong teams in their division that compiled over .500 records.  The Nats, on the other hand, could afford to see just how good their bullpen was before making moves at the deadline because there never was a team close to them.  The Nats never needed to trade for a stud outfielder and give up prospects to fill the Eaton gap because they did not have anyone close to force them to trade future for now.  Same thing this off-season with Realmuto - they could say "pound sand" when the Marlins asked for Robles + because, even with Wieters coming off his worst year, they are probably 6 -10 games better than the Mets. 

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

It's barely an educated guess on how younger players/prospects will develop, how older guys will age and how much they decline if at all, and how healthy guys will remain in the future.  I don't see much reason/point to worry about 2 and 3 years down the line right now.

[bluestreak]

It's barely an educated guess on how younger players/prospects will develop, how older guys will age and how much they decline if at all, and how healthy guys will remain in the future.  I don't see much reason/point to worry about 2 and 3 years down the line right now.

Agree with this. If Robles, Soto, Rendon, and Turner develop into 6+ win players, the Nats will be competitive for years. That’s not by any mean a certainty, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility.  If they sustain significant injuries, the Nats will suck. Also not outside the realm of
Possibility. Speculating past 2019 seems silly.