NL East (2018)

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Braves have 23 games left and 76 wins?  What is more likely - they go 14-9 and top 90 wins or they go 10-13 and only get to 86?

[spidernat]

It's so freaked up and frustrating that we can point to 3 or 4 games that were right within this team's grasp that, in spite of the awful season, could have this team right in the mix of this division race.

[imref]

It's so freaked up and frustrating that we can point to 3 or 4 games that were right within this team's grasp that, in spite of the awful season, could have this team right in the mix of this division race.

Seems more like 8-10

[spidernat]

Seems more like 8-10

Of course but it would only take 3-4 of those to get them back in the race.

[Ray D]

Seems more like 8-10

Count all the games where Harper came to bat late in the game where a hit would have put us ahead, but he struck out.  If he had produced a third of the time (not an unreasonable thing to ask) that's at least five games right there.

[spidernat]

some of our opponents can say the same thing about games they've pissed away but we probably have more that were just complete disaster losses

[Slateman]

Count all the games where Harper came to bat late in the game where a hit would have put us ahead, but he struck out.  If he had produced a third of the time (not an unreasonable thing to ask) that's at least five games right there.

Honestly, just him having the approach he's had since the ASB to start the season (i.e., not trying desperately to hit 55+ homers), would make a five game swing right there.

[spidernat]

Honestly, just him having the approach he's had since the ASB to start the season (i.e., not trying desperately to hit 55+ homers), would make a five game swing right there.

agreed

[nfotiu]

Count all the games where Harper came to bat late in the game where a hit would have put us ahead, but he struck out.  If he had produced a third of the time (not an unreasonable thing to ask) that's at least five games right there.

I think you are completely mindfacting this.   Do you have anything to back up your theory that he is hitting worse in those situations.  He is OPSing .843 in high leverage situations, which is down a bit from other situations, but no where near what you are making him out to be.  Didn't he just homer to tie a game, and then knocked in the walk off run?

Starting too many games with non-MLB pitchers and blowing a few saves because we fired half our bullpen is really where they blame is.  A legitimate #5 starter with Helickson spot starting would have given us a good shot at 7 more wins.

[mitlen]

agreed

Do ya think anyone mentioned it to him?

[Slateman]

Do ya think anyone mentioned it to him?

Yes.

[mitlen]

Yes.

Good to know it only took 'em a half season to realize it.      Probably too busy killin' the bullpen to notice.     

[nfotiu]

Yes.

Do ya think anyone mentioned it to him?

I'm of the opinion (based on what's been said to the media and where Davy was batting Harper in the order at the beginning of the year) that Davy and his coaches were responsible for trying to get Harper to expand his strike zone. 

I don't think it was that he was swinging for the fences, he was just looking bad swinging at bad pitches.  He's always going to be taking his full swing.  His mechanics started to go a bit when he wasn't hitting anything and getting frustrated though.

[spidernat]

Do ya think anyone mentioned it to him?

maybe but it wouldn't have made a difference to Harper. Sometimes it takes experiencing failure to accept outside help

[Slateman]

I'm of the opinion (based on what's been said to the media and where Davy was batting Harper in the order at the beginning of the year) that Davy and his coaches were responsible for trying to get Harper to expand his strike zone. 

I don't think it was that he was swinging for the fences, he was just looking bad swinging at bad pitches.  He's always going to be taking his full swing.  His mechanics started to go a bit when he wasn't hitting anything and getting frustrated though.

Except this has already been refuted.

Harper came into the season looking to hit homers. He didn't expand his strike zone. He simply decided he wanted to sock a lot of dingers in a contract year

[aBaltoNat]

Except this has already been refuted.

Harper came into the season looking to hit homers. He didn't expand his strike zone. He simply decided he wanted to sock a lot of dingers in a contract year

He said this? As in Harper admitted to this?

[Air Desmond]

Braves have been miserable lately. Too bad the Nats can’t capitalize.

[Slateman]

He said this? As in Harper admitted to this?

https://theathletic.com/474147/2018/08/15/rosenthal-whats-behind-bryces-resurgence-manager-decisions-looming-the-catch-and-throw-kid-more-notes/

“In the end, all that stuff that happened to him will make him better,” Nationals hitting coach Kevin Long said last weekend in Chicago. “He learned more about himself. He learned his value.

“His value is not in trying to hit home runs. His value is putting together good at-bats and hitting line drives, and some of those line drives will end up home runs. He really thought he could elevate his game by hitting more home runs. He has hit 40, and he thought he could elevate to 55 to 60. He found that wasn’t the case — the hard way.”

Harper has increased his line-drive rate from 22 percent before June 20 to 26.8 percent since, according to Inside Edge. The league average is 23.2 percent, and his increase ranks 31st of 157 hitters who have at least 250 balls in play on the season and 50 BIP in each time frame.

If Harper had come into this season with the goal of hitting .320 instead of hitting 55+ home runs, we'd realistically be looking at challenging the Braves for the division next month.

And it's really obvious if you look at his approach pre-ASB and post-ASB.

[Natsinpwc]

https://theathletic.com/474147/2018/08/15/rosenthal-whats-behind-bryces-resurgence-manager-decisions-looming-the-catch-and-throw-kid-more-notes/

If Harper had come into this season with the goal of hitting .320 instead of hitting 55+ home runs, we'd realistically be looking at challenging the Braves for the division next month.

And it's really obvious if you look at his approach pre-ASB and post-ASB.

Might be overly simplified. He has had prolonged slumps in previous seasons also (2016). The only thing obvious is that he gets off balance. If that’s from trying to hit too many home runs fine but he should be able to adjust and seems unable to. In the end it’s probably from really never having to pay his dues in the minor leagues.

[tomterp]

Bos points out how both the Phillies and Barves have been sucking wind lately, and that had the Nats stayed in the race longer there may have been an opportunity.

The Washington Nationals quit on their season 10 days too soon when they traded Daniel Murphy and Matt Adams on Aug. 21.

Either that or the Nats failed to execute a plan to dump enough salaries to get under the luxury tax ceiling and gain the advantages of a “reset” on any penalties for high spending. The Nats say the tax penalty never figured in their plans. Either way, the Nats have taken another pratfall in a year full of them.

That’s perfect hindsight. That’s a second guess. It’s not what many, including me, thought at the time. But it’s also a perfect illustration of the hard lessons that baseball loves to teach. A premature white flag can come back to haunt a team.

Some Nats thought the deals were unnecessary and unwise at the time. Why not wait until a real deadline? Teams must get a player before Sept. 1 for him to be eligible for the postseason. But Aug. 21? Why? Looks like they were right.


With the Braves and Phillies both floundering — in 8-12 and 5-12 skids, respectively — the Nats are now left to wonder where they might be if they had never traded that pair of fine left-handed bats for a bag of beans. Now 7½ games behind Atlanta, how much closer might they be to the National League East lead if they had held ’em just a little longer rather than deal when there was no deadline urgency?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/could-the-nats-have-made-a-september-run-well-never-know-and-for-no-good-reason/2018/09/06/b8403ea0-b1fa-11e8-aed9-001309990777_story.html?utm_term=.57db2f39e6a8

[imref]

Bos points out how both the Phillies and Barves have been sucking wind lately, and that had the Nats stayed in the race longer there may have been an opportunity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/could-the-nats-have-made-a-september-run-well-never-know-and-for-no-good-reason/2018/09/06/b8403ea0-b1fa-11e8-aed9-001309990777_story.html?utm_term=.57db2f39e6a8

Horrible analysis by Boz.  Adams was hitting somewhere around .150 when we traded him.  The relievers we lost have been replaced by better relievers.  Difo has been better than Murphy over the last 10 games- .250 / .300 / .536 with 2 HRs for Difo versus .258 / .258 / .484 with 2HRs for Murphy. 

Unless Rizzo figured out how to bring us 2-3 top flight relievers and a couple of starters, we never had a chance to catch up.

[nfotiu]

Bos points out how both the Phillies and Barves have been sucking wind lately, and that had the Nats stayed in the race longer there may have been an opportunity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/could-the-nats-have-made-a-september-run-well-never-know-and-for-no-good-reason/2018/09/06/b8403ea0-b1fa-11e8-aed9-001309990777_story.html?utm_term=.57db2f39e6a8

It seemed there were lots of us on this board that thought there was a very good chance both these teams would not finish strong.  I don't think the bats were a big deal though.  We weren't going to go on a tear with the combination of Doolittle and Herrera hurt and firing the 2 other guys.   Not to mention we are punting 20-40% of the games by starting whoever we can find that day.

I like Rizzo and don't want him to go anywhere.  But if we really were going to go for it, he needed to find a way to fill some pitching holes with legitimate MLBers.  He completely bungled this trade deadline period about as badly as he could.

[Slateman]

Bos points out how both the Phillies and Barves have been sucking wind lately, and that had the Nats stayed in the race longer there may have been an opportunity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/could-the-nats-have-made-a-september-run-well-never-know-and-for-no-good-reason/2018/09/06/b8403ea0-b1fa-11e8-aed9-001309990777_story.html?utm_term=.57db2f39e6a8

Boswell needs to drink a big glass of STFU juce. 2 weeks ago he declared the season dead and now he’s moping about the little bit of pulse that remains.

Also, the offense is tied for third in runs scored in the second half. Please explain how this team needed more runs. It's pitching has been a train wreck since Strasburg went on the DL. Sorry, but unless the Nationals were going to magically add two quality relievers and two quality starters, there was never going to be a comeback.

[imref]

Boswell needs to drink a big glass of STFU juce. 2 weeks ago he declared the season dead and now he’s moping about the little bit of pulse that remains.

Also, the offense is tied for third in runs scored in the second half. Please explain how this team needed more runs. It's pitching has been a train wreck since Strasburg went on the DL. Sorry, but unless the Nationals were going to magically add two quality relievers and two quality starters, there was never going to be a comeback.

ok, that's twice today I've agreed with Slateman.

We need to get back to talking about Zimmerman.

It seemed there were lots of us on this board that thought there was a very good chance both these teams would not finish strong.  I don't think the bats were a big deal though.  We weren't going to go on a tear with the combination of Doolittle and Herrera hurt and firing the 2 other guys.   Not to mention we are punting 20-40% of the games by starting whoever we can find that day.

I like Rizzo and don't want him to go anywhere.  But if we really were going to go for it, he needed to find a way to fill some pitching holes with legitimate MLBers.  He completely bungled this trade deadline period about as badly as he could.

I disagree.  Getting Herrera as early as we did was a brilliant move.  Having Herrera and Doolittle go down arguably put the nail in the coffin.  You could argue though that he should have added a starter.

[aspenbubba]

I disagree.  Getting Herrera as early as we did was a brilliant move.  Having Herrera and Doolittle go down arguably put the nail in the coffin.  You could argue though that he should have added a starter.

The starter and a catcher were thought to be the missing pieces since ST. Thinking that AJ Cole could be his #5 and not a long arm out of the BP was hubris. I wouldn't fire Rizzo under any circumstance.