NL East (2018)

[nfotiu]

I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Nats are the Indians of last year. Underachieved the whole season, underperformed their run differential, underperformed in one-run games. Then in August ran off a incredible stretch. I’m not saying this will happen. And I don’t think they will go on a record breaking streak, but I don’t think the Nats are as dead as everyone thinks.

I could get on board with that if we somehow can get a semi-competent bullpen together, Strasburg can come back and be effective, and Gio can be good Gio for at least half his starts.  All 3 of those happening seems pretty unlikely though.

[aspenbubba]

I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Nats are the Indians of last year. Underachieved the whole season, underperformed their run differential, underperformed in one-run games. Then in August ran off a incredible stretch. I’m not saying this will happen. And I don’t think they will go on a record breaking streak, but I don’t think the Nats are as dead as everyone thinks.

You should read Zucks comments today as it would be a historical record for the Nats in their 13 year history.

[Baseball is Life]

I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Nats are the Indians of last year. Underachieved the whole season, underperformed their run differential, underperformed in one-run games. Then in August ran off a incredible stretch. I’m not saying this will happen. And I don’t think they will go on a record breaking streak, but I don’t think the Nats are as dead as everyone thinks.

Me neither. I will always have hope until there is none to be had. We all know it's extremely unlikely at this point but the alternative is boring.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

svrluga had a piece yesterday where the target would be 87 wins. Tall task, but that would put us in the running for both the division and WC.  Something like 59 of the 63 teams that reached 87 wins have made the playoffs since the play-in game was added.

[bluestreak]

You contradicted and couched your comments impressively here.

What do you want me to say, that I absolutely positively know this will happen? I’ll leave the super confident proclamations to Slate.

[imref]

I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Nats are the Indians of last year. Underachieved the whole season, underperformed their run differential, underperformed in one-run games. Then in August ran off a incredible stretch. I’m not saying this will happen. And I don’t think they will go on a record breaking streak, but I don’t think the Nats are as dead as everyone thinks.

have you looked at our rotation and bullpen?

[bluestreak]

have you looked at our rotation and bullpen?

This is all predicated on Strasburg, Herrera and Doolittle coming back soon.

The Oakland rotation is noting special, and their lineup on paper isn't better than the Nats. And all it basically would take is an A's like run to get into contention. Is this likely? No. Is it in the realm of possibility? Yes

[Slateman]

have you looked at our rotation and bullpen?

If Strasburg,  Herrera, and Doolittle can get back healthy and return to form in the next week to ten days, then this team could absolutely go on a tear.

[rileyn]

If Strasburg,  Herrera, and Doolittle can get back healthy and return to form in the next week to ten days, then this team could absolutely go on a tear.

And only finish 4 back?

[dcpatti]

And only finish 4 back?

it would be a wild ride though.

[EXILAR]

Where is the "who cares at this point" option in the poll?

[Slateman]

And only finish 4 back?

Oakland was 8.5 games back from the Astros on July 1. They are now a game back.


I'm not saying it will happen, only that its possible

[Natsinpwc]

Oakland was 8.5 games back from the Astros on July 1. They are now a game back.


I'm not saying it will happen, only that its possible

But the Nats have two teams to overtake.  They are now nine games in back of the Braves in the loss column.

[Ray D]

And only finish 4 back?

If we're still playing "meaningful" games with two or three to go, I'll be satisfied, no matter what happens.  4 back probably won't do it for me.

[Natsinpwc]

The only hope for the Nats is that the Phillies fade and the Nats get overtake them before the last week and a half. And then have the Phillies win like 6 of 7 from the bRaves that last ten games of the season.

538 had them at 5 percent to win the division. And 13% to make the playoffs.

[bluestreak]

But the Nats have two teams to overtake.  They are now nine games in back of the Braves in the loss column.

As were in 3rd place on July 1...

[Elvir Ovcina]

But the Nats have two teams to overtake.  They are now nine games in back of the Braves in the loss column.

The A's also had two teams to overtake.  They've passed the Mariners.   If they sweep this weekend, they would pass the Astros.

[varoadking]

The only hope for the Nats is that the Phillies fade and the Nats get overtake them before the last week and a half. And then have the Phillies win like 6 of 7 from the bRaves that last ten games of the season.

[Natsinpwc]

Acuna hit intentionally to start the game. Braves getting all salty. Can’t really blame them. It was aimed at his back but when he turned it hit his elbow.

[Natsinpwc]

Five percent seems high.

[Natsinpwc]

As were in 3rd place on July 1...

Ok. And now half the remaining season from that point is gone. They only had one team ahead.

I just can’t think of any big comebacks where a team passed two teams that were that far ahead. Maybe Colorado a few years ago?

[Elvir Ovcina]

Ok. And now half the remaining season from that point is gone. They only had one team ahead.

I just can’t think of any big comebacks where a team passed two teams that were that far ahead. Maybe Colorado a few years ago?

No, they didn't.  That was what he was saying.  They were behind Houston and Seattle - 8.5 games behind the Astros and 8 back of the Mariners, to be specific.  (See https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/?date=2018-07-01.)   They've passed Seattle, which is why they're now sitting in the second WC spot.

[Natsinpwc]

No, they didn't.  That was what he was saying.  They were behind Houston and Seattle - 8.5 games behind the Astros and 8 back of the Mariners, to be specific.  (See https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/?date=2018-07-01.)   They've passed Seattle, which is why they're now sitting in the second WC spot.

Ok. Seattle collapsed. And they still haven’t caught Houston and probably won’t. The Nats have a very small probability of catching both Atlanta and Philly.  Atlanta is nine games ahead in the loss column.  I think the five percent 538 projects is high. And they have several teams ahead in the wild card. It’s really a very small chance of it happening.

[Slateman]

https://mobile.twitter.com/markzuckerman/status/1029933454199349248?s=21

[Panther Modern]

Where is the "who cares at this point" option in the poll?

That the Marlins option.