2014 MLB Draft

[RD]

Johnny Manziel was drafted. That tells you how teams look at day 3

Yeah, so was Albert Pujols and John Smoltz. Are they filler, at best?

[Salamander Man]

Yeah, so was Albert Pujols and John Smoltz. Are they filler, at best?

Of course there are exceptions.  Do you think the Cards drafted him thinking he would become what Pujols has become?  If so, why did they wait so long?  No one is drafted that late in the majors and expected to make any kind of impact at all.  Often times there are gimmick selections like Manziel, guys they have no chance at signing, family friends, feel good stories, or a pick to shove down your neighbors throat (Ripken)

Here are the Nats picks past round 10 that have made the majors and their total WAR:
 
Ray -0.2
Karns- -0.3
Millone- 3.6
Moore -0.5
Lombo -0.8
Kimball- 0.4
Pea****- 1.2
Lannan- 6.6
Stammen- 4.4

[HalfSmokes]

the question isn't whether or not there are exceptions, the question is how random it is (i.e. does a team caring actually make a difference)? I personally think it's random to a degree that you'd have just as much luck (deliberately using the term) just selecting based on BA or some other resected service's next best available than by scrutinizing scouting reports and picking

[Slateman]

Of course there are exceptions.  Do you think the Cards drafted him thinking he would become what Pujols has become?  If so, why did they wait so long?  No one is drafted that late in the majors and expected to make any kind of impact at all.  Often times there are gimmick selections like Manziel, guys they have no chance at signing, family friends, feel good stories, or a pick to shove down your neighbors throat (Ripken)

Here are the Nats picks past round 10 that have made the majors and their total WAR:
 
Ray -0.2
Karns- -0.3
Millone- 3.6
Moore -0.5
Lombo -0.8
Kimball- 0.4
Pea****- 1.2
Lannan- 6.6
Stammen- 4.4

Stammen to me represents the best plan for Day 3. Take a guy with lower expectations. As a starter, Stammen wouldn't be good, but use him as a reliever and he's pretty good.

[Salamander Man]

Stammen to me represents the best plan for Day 3. Take a guy with lower expectations. As a starter, Stammen wouldn't be good, but use him as a reliever and he's pretty good.

I think there is some validity to that.  Guys that project as relievers aren't typically highly thought of.  That or a guys like Carey that has some talent and could be a 4th OFer some day.

[WashingtonWizards23]

another injured player and boras client. 

[RD]

Of course there are exceptions.  Do you think the Cards drafted him thinking he would become what Pujols has become?  If so, why did they wait so long?  No one is drafted that late in the majors and expected to make any kind of impact at all.  Often times there are gimmick selections like Manziel, guys they have no chance at signing, family friends, feel good stories, or a pick to shove down your neighbors throat (Ripken)

Here are the Nats picks past round 10 that have made the majors and their total WAR:
 
Ray -0.2
Karns- -0.3
Millone- 3.6
Moore -0.5
Lombo -0.8
Kimball- 0.4
Pea****- 1.2
Lannan- 6.6
Stammen- 4.4

It doesnt matter what the expectation of every pick is. You said day three is filler, at best. Fact is, there are pkayers that emerge and become more than filler, making that statement false. Teams scout these players heavily and guys taken in round 13 do have different expectations than guys taken in the 35th. Some guys are drafted as filler or organizational depth. Others are selected because they have some legitimate talent, even if it is a long shot. Its a fact that some day three players do make an impact, so saying its filler "at best" is wrong.

Also, you're solely looking at it as a players individual impact. There is more to it than that. I sont care what Ray and Lombo WAR is. They netted us Doug Fister in a trade, which is a big piece of the big club. Their value to the team netted us a very good starting putcher. Thats also qualifies as more than filler imo.

You dont just ignore day three and treat it as just filler. Even if its tougher to find guys to help impact the big club, its still another way to do it.

[tomterp]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/amateur-hour-when-talks-break-down-and-why-mlb-draft-is-broken-060714

This was enlightening in regard to the Bowden era drafts.

Is that the agent that posted here for a while?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I definitely would not call day three filler at best. Certainly most guys end up filler, but they absolutely can be more than that. Not even talking about a guy like P iazza who was a massive steal (albeit a rarity), day three picks can have very clear value.

Just in recent years, Robbie Ray, Billy Burns, Stephen Lombardozzi, and David Freitas, off the top of my head, have helped the big league club. Whether it was making the team like Lombo or being moved in a trade like all four, they helped the big league team.

Day three may be mostly filler but that is not the best case. Especially early day three.

nate Karns too (12th round)

[DPMOmaha]

FWIW, word out of Reetz's camp is he'll be a tough sign. His family has $$$, he doesn't need that, and they feel that three years with Erstad and NU will put him in position to be a first rounder and get a much bigger bonus in three years. This isn't a shoe-in. It will be worth watching how much the first two rounders sign for and how much they can throw at Reetz. I think it's going to have to come up quite a bit if they want to get him on board.

[natasaurus]

Is that the agent that posted here for a while?

Seems like it.

[HalfSmokes]

FWIW, word out of Reetz's camp is he'll be a tough sign. His family has $$$, he doesn't need that, and they feel that three years with Erstad and NU will put him in position to be a first rounder and get a much bigger bonus in three years. This isn't a shoe-in. It will be worth watching how much the first two rounders sign for and how much they can throw at Reetz. I think it's going to have to come up quite a bit if they want to get him on board.

I don't understand that perspective. On the one hand, they are confident enough in his talent to think that two years will put in the first round. On the other hand, it seems like they are not confident enough to value two years of movement through the system since first round talent should advance relatively quickly (if those two years put him closer to the majors, even an extra season at the major league minimum gets him $500,000)

[DPMOmaha]

I don't understand that perspective. On the one hand, they are confident enough in his talent to think that two years will put in the first round. On the other hand, it seems like they are not confident enough to value two years of movement through the system since first round talent should advance relatively quickly (if those two years put him closer to the majors, even an extra season at the major league minimum gets him $500,000)

Well, at 18, let's say it reasonably takes him five years to get to the major league level, starting out at the 800,000 bonus level, let's be generous and say the Nats can squeeze an extra $400k and get him up to 1.2 mil.

If he thinks, as I would expect someone of his talent level would, that with three years of learning under a guy like Erstad, whom he really has a pretty good relationship with already, that he can move up to a top 20 pick and could get to the MLB level in, say three years, at age 24 after signing a bonus of better than $2 mil, minimum, it's not really that hard to follow that logic, to me. There's some risk there, no question, but the logic makes sense, I think.

[Salamander Man]

Have any picks signed yet?

[HalfSmokes]

Well, at 18, let's say it reasonably takes him five years to get to the major league level, starting out at the 800,000 bonus level, let's be generous and say the Nats can squeeze an extra $400k and get him up to 1.2 mil.

If he thinks, as I would expect someone of his talent level would, that with three years of learning under a guy like Erstad, whom he really has a pretty good relationship with already, that he can move up to a top 20 pick and could get to the MLB level in, say three years, at age 24 after signing a bonus of better than $2 mil, minimum, it's not really that hard to follow that logic, to me. There's some risk there, no question, but the logic makes sense, I think.

I wonder what the percentage of picks actually making the jump to the first round, vs staying the same, vs significant drop. The kid was a third rounder because that's were teams placed him, maybe he can change minds, maybe not, but it's a risk

[blue911]

nate Karns too (12th round)

And Billy Burns (32nd) brought Jerry Blevins.

[DPMOmaha]

I wonder what the percentage of picks actually making the jump to the first round, vs staying the same, vs significant drop. The kid was a third rounder because that's were teams placed him, maybe he can change minds, maybe not, but it's a risk

That would be an interesting study. It's not unheard of by any stretch, but not sure how common, either. Also, this was a perceived deep draft. If he waits three years and the pool is shallower, that alone could bump him up significantly. He was rated by a lot of places to be in the 60th-ish range in terms of best players in the draft. If he continues to improve (not guaranteed at all), it's not a stretch to think he could jump into the first round and maybe even high in it.

[blue911]

That would be an interesting study. It's not unheard of by any stretch, but not sure how common, either. Also, this was a perceived deep draft. If he waits three years and the pool is shallower, that alone could bump him up significantly. He was rated by a lot of places to be in the 60th-ish range in terms of best players in the draft. If he continues to improve (not guaranteed at all), it's not a stretch to think he could jump into the first round and maybe even high in it.

College catchers suffer by not being able to call the game.

[HalfSmokes]

That would be an interesting study. It's not unheard of by any stretch, but not sure how common, either. Also, this was a perceived deep draft. If he waits three years and the pool is shallower, that alone could bump him up significantly. He was rated by a lot of places to be in the 60th-ish range in terms of best players in the draft. If he continues to improve (not guaranteed at all), it's not a stretch to think he could jump into the first round and maybe even high in it.

maybe, but as he improves the potential also starts to disappear, so he basically has to improve at a faster pace than teams project

[DPMOmaha]

College catchers suffer by not being able to call the game.

maybe, but as he improves the potential also starts to disappear, so he basically has to improve at a faster pace than teams project

I'm just passing along information, guys.

[varoadking]

It's Jakson, no c.

Go this from the Nats today...apparently they don't know this either:

Nationals Draft Picks (by Pick Number) 

 (18) Erick Fedde 
 (57) Andrew Suarez 
 (93) Jackson Reetz 
 (124) Robbie Dickey 
 (154) Drew Van Orden 
 (184) Austen Williams 
 (214) D.K. Carey 
 (244) Jeff Gardner 
 (274) Austin Byler 
 (304) Matthew Page 
 (334) Weston Davis 
 (364) Domenick Mancini 
 (394) Austin Davidson 
 (424) James Bourque 
 
 (454) Ryan Ripken 
 (484) Cole Plouck 
 (514) Alec Keller 
 (544) Mckenzie Mills 
 (574) Clay Williamson 
 (604) Brian Langlois 
 (634) Connor Bach 
 (664) Daniel Salters 
 (694) Chris Riopedre 
 (724) Kyle Simmons 
 (754) Kyle Bacak 
 (784) Chase McDowell 
 (814) Conor Keniry 
 
 (844) Kida De La Cruz 
 (874) DJ Jauss 
 (904) Tyler Maples 
 (934) Samuel Johns 
 (964) Elliott Cary 
 (994) Clay Casey 
 (1024) Evan Skoug 
 (1054) Tommy Doyle 
 (1084) John Henry Styles 
 (1114) Quinn Brodey 
 (1144) Stuart Fairshild 
 (1174) Jon Littell 
 (1204) Jacob Hill 
 
 

[blue911]

I'm just passing along information, guys.

I know, I'm just saying that if he chooses Nebraska it's because he wants to go there and not because he thinks he'll get a bigger bonus in three years.

[natasaurus]

Finally, someone signs!

@washingnats: The #Nats have agreed to terms with fifth-round pick RHP Drew Van Orden. He will take his physical in Florida soon. #Nationals

[sportsfan882]

Well, at 18, let's say it reasonably takes him five years to get to the major league level, starting out at the 800,000 bonus level, let's be generous and say the Nats can squeeze an extra $400k and get him up to 1.2 mil.

If he thinks, as I would expect someone of his talent level would, that with three years of learning under a guy like Erstad, whom he really has a pretty good relationship with already, that he can move up to a top 20 pick and could get to the MLB level in, say three years, at age 24 after signing a bonus of better than $2 mil, minimum, it's not really that hard to follow that logic, to me. There's some risk there, no question, but the logic makes sense, I think.

The odds of him increasing his stock in college is low. Too many things can go wrong. He'll sign

[Terpfan76]

Did we draft any difficult to sign HS kids.