Author Topic: NL East Race Watch (Read 203824 times)

PC · « **Reply #975 on:** July 14, 2014, 07:58:32 pm »

http://www.si.com/mlb/video/2014/07/14/no-bad-blood-between-nationals-and-braves

sportsfan882 · « **Reply #976 on:** July 15, 2014, 12:03:04 pm »

Quote

Chase Hughes ‏@chasehughesCSN 38s
Beginning July 29 the Braves go @ LAD, @ SDP, @ SEA, vs. WAS, vs. LAD, vs. OAK, @ PIT, @ CIN. That's an absolutely brutal stretch.

BigMeech · « **Reply #977 on:** July 15, 2014, 05:40:37 pm »

By comparison, we go:

@ Miami
Vs Philadelphia
Vs Baltimore (Make-up game)
Vs New York Mets
At Atlanta
At New York Mets
Vs Pittsburgh
Vs Arizona
Vs San Francisco

We have no excuse not to take control of the division by August 25th, especially considering the abundance of home games against crape teams, and one of those non-crape teams (San Francisco) has fallen off of a cliff since we nearly swept them in June.

Ray D · « **Reply #978 on:** July 15, 2014, 05:43:16 pm »

Quote from: BigMeech on July 15, 2014, 05:40:37 pm

especially considering the abundance of home games against crape teams,

It would be different if our home games were against Sunni teams?

BigMeech · « **Reply #979 on:** July 15, 2014, 05:46:47 pm »

Quote from: Ray D on July 15, 2014, 05:43:16 pm

It would be different if our home games were against Sunni teams?

probably.

spidernat · « **Reply #980 on:** July 15, 2014, 05:51:58 pm »

Quote from: sportsfan882 on July 15, 2014, 12:03:04 pm

All the hand wringing and complaining about schedules is pure stupidity. We play the same freaking schedule except they played the red sox (and got swept by them) and we play the birds.

rileyn · « **Reply #981 on:** July 15, 2014, 06:15:05 pm »

Not really crap. More like a crap shoot. Much of it depends on when you play a team. Are you playing them when they are on a hot streak or in a slump?

Baseball is Life · « **Reply #982 on:** July 15, 2014, 06:16:46 pm »

Quote from: rileyn on July 15, 2014, 06:15:05 pm

Not really crap. More like a crap shoot. Much of it depends on when you play a team. Are you playing them when they are on a hot streak or in a slump?

This. And are you playing them when they are injured or you're injured...

PC · « **Reply #983 on:** July 15, 2014, 06:48:25 pm »

Quote from: rileyn on July 15, 2014, 06:15:05 pm

Not really crap. More like a crap shoot. Much of it depends on when you play a team. Are you playing them when they are on a hot streak or in a slump?

Also where a team is in their starting pitcher rotation. It's the biggest separator between winning and losing. Bigger than home/road or hot/cold.

If you have a three-game series against the Dodgers and happen to come up against Kershaw and Greinke where another team misses those two in a three game series, the other team is likely to pick up at least a game based on nothing more than who the opposing starter pitchers were. Add to that the possibility of being at the end of your rotation going up against those two or the front side of almost any rotation.

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #984 on:** July 15, 2014, 07:20:01 pm »

Over 162 games, that should all even out.

PC · « **Reply #985 on:** July 15, 2014, 07:21:02 pm »

Quote from: HalfSmokes on July 15, 2014, 07:20:01 pm

Over 162 games, that should all even out.

It doesn't. The Nationals and Braves only get six (or seven or eight) games against the Dodgers, for example. The Nationals have already had starts against Kershaw and Greinke.

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #986 on:** July 15, 2014, 07:35:12 pm »

Quote from: PC on July 15, 2014, 07:21:02 pm

It doesn't. The Nationals and Braves only get six (or seven or eight) games against the Dodgers, for example. The Nationals have already had starts against Kershaw and Greinke.

3.7 % of games are against the dodgers, but you're not seeing Kershaw and greinke more than two out of three times in a series, so 2.4% of your schedule may be against those two. It balances and to the extent you get another team's aces, it's too few games to really matter.

DPMOmaha · « **Reply #987 on:** July 15, 2014, 07:42:34 pm »

Quote from: PC on July 15, 2014, 07:21:02 pm

It doesn't. The Nationals and Braves only get six (or seven or eight) games against the Dodgers, for example. The Nationals have already had starts against Kershaw and Greinke.

We saw Jose Fernandez once this year. The Braves did twice...within a week.

PC · « **Reply #988 on:** July 15, 2014, 07:50:43 pm »

Quote from: HalfSmokes on July 15, 2014, 07:35:12 pm

3.7 % of games are against the dodgers, but you're not seeing Kershaw and greinke more than two out of three times in a series, so 2.4% of your schedule may be against those two. It balances and to the extent you get another team's aces, it's too few games to really matter.

Last year, the Nationals got Kershaw and Greinke twice each. The Braves didn't get either of them, at all. Not once.

The whole genesis behind by opposing starter ERA stat that I've kept track of this season is based solely on the concept that it doesn't even out.

...and even if it did even out, that still sucks. I want the Nationals to have the advantage.

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #989 on:** July 15, 2014, 07:58:15 pm »

Quote from: PC on July 15, 2014, 07:50:43 pm

Last year, the Nationals got Kershaw and Greinke twice each. The Braves didn't get either of them, at all. Not once.

So? Four games out of 162 we faced those to, what an unfair game

Optics · « **Reply #990 on:** July 16, 2014, 12:09:31 am »

At the end of the day if you make the playoffs you deserved to go. Strength of schedule and all that is just background noise. You play who you play and you beat who you beat.

Ray D · « **Reply #991 on:** July 16, 2014, 09:29:45 am »

Quote from: Optics on July 16, 2014, 12:09:31 am

At the end of the day if you make the playoffs you deserved to go. Strength of schedule and all that is just background noise. You play who you play and you beat who you beat.

This is my philosophy, or to put it a bit differenly, life is inherrently unfair, and the more you try to even things out, the less interesting life becomes.

PC · « **Reply #992 on:** July 16, 2014, 02:48:09 pm »

Price prefers Braves

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24622613/southern-comfort-price-names-favorite-team-other-than-the-rays

Squab · « **Reply #993 on:** July 16, 2014, 03:00:24 pm »

Quote from: PC on July 16, 2014, 02:48:09 pm

Price prefers Braves

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24622613/southern-comfort-price-names-favorite-team-other-than-the-rays

I doubt they've got the prospect power. You've got to think the Rays will want a Top Ten prospect back.

PC · « **Reply #994 on:** July 16, 2014, 04:15:27 pm »

Fangraphs love the Nationals.

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

Dave301 · « **Reply #995 on:** July 16, 2014, 05:37:03 pm »

Quote from: PC on July 15, 2014, 07:50:43 pm

Last year, the Nationals got Kershaw and Greinke twice each. The Braves didn't get either of them, at all. Not once.

The whole genesis behind by opposing starter ERA stat that I've kept track of this season is based solely on the concept that it doesn't even out.

...and even if it did even out, that still sucks. I want the Nationals to have the advantage.

What I hate more is how the Nats had to travel to Oakland to play the A's, while the Braves get to play them at home.

spidernat · « **Reply #996 on:** July 16, 2014, 05:51:20 pm »

Slateman · « **Reply #997 on:** July 16, 2014, 06:13:32 pm »

Quote from: Dave301 on July 16, 2014, 05:37:03 pm

What I hate more is how the Nats had to travel to Oakland to play the A's, while the Braves get to play them at home.

Just going to be more embarrassing for the Barves when they get swept

KnorrForYourMoney · « **Reply #998 on:** July 16, 2014, 06:58:14 pm »

whining about schedules in MLB

tomterp · « **Reply #999 on:** July 17, 2014, 09:07:15 pm »

Quote from: PC on July 16, 2014, 04:15:27 pm

Fangraphs love the Nationals.

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

BP has them quite a bit lower.

Div 63.9% WC 16.6% Tot 80.5%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/