Author Topic: NL East Race Watch (Read 203837 times)

KnorrForYourMoney · « **Reply #1000 on:** July 17, 2014, 09:50:07 pm »

BP sucks

Matugi · « **Reply #1001 on:** July 17, 2014, 10:54:08 pm »

Quote from: PC on July 16, 2014, 04:15:27 pm

Fangraphs love the Nationals.

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx

Super stoked for that Nats-Tigers world series. Revenge of Doug Fister

spidernat · « **Reply #1002 on:** July 18, 2014, 12:20:42 am »

Quote from: Matugi on July 17, 2014, 10:54:08 pm

Super stoked for that Nats-Tigers world series. Revenge of Doug Fister

At that point I'll be like "freak TF!"

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #1003 on:** July 18, 2014, 11:11:36 am »

Quote from: Matugi on July 17, 2014, 10:54:08 pm

Super stoked for that Nats-Tigers world series. Revenge of Doug Fister

Nats - Mariners. Not only Fister Fury, but also you'd get Riggles in the booth commenting on the different ways he was fired and lost with each team, as well as his effort to make sure the Mariners got Dustin Ackley.

Ray D · « **Reply #1004 on:** July 18, 2014, 12:39:08 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on July 18, 2014, 11:11:36 am

Nats - Mariners. Not only Fister Fury, but also you'd get Riggles in the booth commenting on the different ways he was fired and lost with each team, as well as his effort to make sure the Mariners got Dustin Ackley.

As a bonus, Nats-Cubs NLCS. Riggles could cover his firing by the Cubs as well as how he ruined two good pitchers.

wj73 · « **Reply #1005 on:** July 18, 2014, 04:05:30 pm »

Braves just unconditionally released Uggla. Wow.

varoadking · « **Reply #1006 on:** July 18, 2014, 04:17:08 pm »

Quote from: wj73 on July 18, 2014, 04:05:30 pm

Braves just unconditionally released Uggla. Wow.

Now if only Rizzo would deal with our Espinosa problem...

Mattionals · « **Reply #1007 on:** July 18, 2014, 04:25:15 pm »

Quote from: varoadking on July 18, 2014, 04:17:08 pm

Now if only Rizzo would deal with our Espinosa problem...

He's only a problem on offense.

Ray D · « **Reply #1008 on:** July 18, 2014, 04:46:30 pm »

Quote from: wj73 on July 18, 2014, 04:05:30 pm

Braves just unconditionally released Uggla. Wow.

Something strange is going on there. They suspended him for one game last week, for some undisclosed behavior. Now they release him and they owe him a huge sum of money. If this release is related to the suspension, you would think they would try to void part of his contract.

DPMOmaha · « **Reply #1009 on:** July 18, 2014, 04:58:31 pm »

Quote from: Ray D on July 18, 2014, 04:46:30 pm

Something strange is going on there. They suspended him for one game last week, for some undisclosed behavior. Now they release him and they owe him a huge sum of money. If this release is related to the suspension, you would think they would try to void part of his contract.

Not really, he saw the writing on the wall. He's had 17 AB's since May 27.

Slateman · « **Reply #1010 on:** July 18, 2014, 05:43:28 pm »

Quote from: Mattionals on July 18, 2014, 04:25:15 pm

He's only a problem on offense.

Yea. Espinosa is vaulable as a back up infielder.

Slateman · « **Reply #1011 on:** July 19, 2014, 09:27:09 am »

Gotta win tonight. Barves are facing Hamels. Good chance to pull even.

Slateman · « **Reply #1012 on:** July 20, 2014, 08:30:04 pm »

Still in first place. Gotta say, Nats are doing well during the Braves easy stretch. Need to start turning it on here. Would love to see them continue this trend of not losing series.

PC · « **Reply #1013 on:** July 21, 2014, 03:27:32 pm »

Our old friend Paul Swydan is back. If you remember, in 2012, he pinned the column "Braves will catch the Nationals". He just can't help himself, I guess.

Quote

Braves can hang in NL East race
Although Nats seem to have stronghold on division, Braves aren't far behind

By Paul Swydan | ESPN Insider

The Washington Nationals are supposed to be running away with the NL East. At least, that was the story at the beginning of the season. Twenty-eight of 31 FanGraphs authors picked the Nationals to win the division, as did 40 of 44 ESPN.com experts. Yet here we are, nearly 100 games into the season, and it's a dead heat. Is there reason to change course and think that the Atlanta Braves are now the favorites?

Well, not according to the Playoff Odds. FanGraphs still gives the Nats 81 percent odds to take home the division crown. That's one way of looking at it. Another way would be to note that only 13 teams still have at least 10 percent odds of winning their division, and the Braves are one of them.

So let's not slam the door on Atlanta just yet.

One reason is the Braves' position players have been more valuable than the Nationals' troupe this summer. The Nationals have hit slightly better (102 wRC+ to 100), but the Braves have been far better on defense. In Jason Heyward and Andrelton Simmons, the Braves have the best fielding duo in the majors, and it's not particularly close. Tommy La Stella has been another big help, as his slightly above-average defense has been a nice antidote to Dan Uggla's decidedly below-average defense. Throw in B.J. Upton, and the Braves are very strong defensively up the middle, where defense counts most. The Nationals aren't exactly weak there, but they haven't been as good as Atlanta.

Another reason to keep the faith if you're the Braves: Alex Wood is back in the rotation, and he's pitching well. Since he's returned to the starting rotation, he has allowed 10 earned runs in 31 1/3 innings for a tidy 2.87 ERA, and he's posted a strikeout-to-walk ratio better than 3-to-1. Every starting rotation needs that, and were it not for probably unnecessary hand-wringing over Wood's innings count, he would have remained in the rotation all season. He has joined the clearly dominant Julio Teheran, the cleverly dominant Aaron Harang and the solid Ervin Santana to give the team a pretty nice starting mix. It still doesn't quite measure up to Washington's, but Wood back in the rotation combined with the Braves' bullpen edge make things closer than they appear.

One player who remains an potent question mark in this race is Bryce Harper. On the one hand, getting him back in the lineup allows the Nationals to move Ryan Zimmerman back to third base, which is good, because he was a disaster waiting to happen in the outfield. On the other hand, Harper clearly still isn't 100 percent. He has just four extra-base hits in his first 58 plate appearances since returning from the disabled list on June 30. He has also not reversed his issues with making contact on pitches out of the strike zone, leading to a sharp increase in his strikeouts thus far. It's still early in his season given the two months he missed, but the Nationals need him to put that problem behind in a hurry.

It's not all doom and gloom for the Nationals, of course. For starters, the Braves have plenty of hard-to-figure players of their own. Mike Minor is a prominent example. On seven occasions so far this season, Minor has allowed two or fewer runs in a start. But he's also had four starts where he's allowed five or more, including his most recent start, in which he allowed six runs to the offensively challenged Chicago Cubs. The team also doesn't know what it can expect out of Evan Gattis, who should return from the disabled list this week. He should be better offensively than what the Braves have received in his absence -- Gattis has 16 homers in 229 plate appearances this season, compared to none by Gerald Laird and Christian Bethancourt in 164 PAs -- but if his back injury saps some of his power, it will spell trouble for Atlanta's offense.

The Braves also have their out-and-out problem children. They dumped Uggla, sure, but B.J. Upton is still hitting just .214/.278/.339 -- numbers that would have gotten him dropped a long time ago, solid defense or not, if he didn't have a big contract. The Nationals have some similarly poor hitters, but at this point in the season they have all been relegated to their bench. Upton has started 89 of Atlanta's 98 games.

That lack of black holes among starting personnel is the best argument for the Nationals to win the division. Tanner Roark has filled the fifth rotation spot, which was last year's big problem, and when firing on all cylinders, the Nationals clearly have the most talent. The Nationals still remain the favorite to win the division, but it's far from a sure thing now that they've let the Braves hang around this long, who continue to show that they're not to be trifled with. The Nationals are fun to root for because they're the Maverick to the Braves' Ice Man, but if they're not careful, they could crash and burn.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11241922/nats-favorites-not-runaway-nl-east-mlb?ex_cid=espnapi_public

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #1014 on:** July 21, 2014, 03:29:12 pm »

you can stop reading at

Quote

ESPN Insider

and save yourself the hassle

Ray D · « **Reply #1015 on:** July 21, 2014, 03:31:47 pm »

Quote

allows the Nationals to move Ryan Zimmerman back to third base, which is good, because he was a disaster waiting to happen in the outfield.

Lost all credibility with that one. I didn't read any further.

wpa2629 · « **Reply #1016 on:** July 21, 2014, 03:33:39 pm »

No mention of the Nats starting line up playing all of what is it now? 10 games together? C'mon man ...

wj73 · « **Reply #1017 on:** July 21, 2014, 03:34:34 pm »

Yea, that one cracked me up too.

Jordanz Meatballz · « **Reply #1018 on:** July 21, 2014, 03:52:36 pm »

Swydan comes off as a Braves fan. It's pretty pathetic.

wpa2629 · « **Reply #1019 on:** July 21, 2014, 03:54:11 pm »

The Giants picked up Dan Uggla - lolololol

Good Gawd Why?

3bside · « **Reply #1020 on:** July 21, 2014, 03:54:23 pm »

This article is backwards. It's the Braves who let the Nats hang around while Danny Espinosa, Kevin Frandsen, Nate McLouth, Jose Lobaton and Taylor Jordan were getting regular playing time. They put us away last year with two big win streaks in April and July. This year, they've lost too many games to the likes of the Mets, Marlins, Phillies and Red Sox.

wpa2629 · « **Reply #1021 on:** July 21, 2014, 03:55:05 pm »

Quote from: 3bside on July 21, 2014, 03:54:23 pm

This article is backwards. It's the Braves who let the Nats hang around while Danny Espinosa, Kevin Frandsen, Nate McLouth, Jose Lobaton and Taylor Jordan were getting regular playing time. They put us away last year with two big win streaks in April and July. This year, they've lost too many games to the likes of the Mets, Marlins, Phillies and Red Sox.

This is exactly right ...

Copecwby20 · « **Reply #1022 on:** July 21, 2014, 03:58:28 pm »

Quote from: wpa2629 on July 21, 2014, 03:54:11 pm

The Giants picked up Dan Uggla - lolololol

Good Gawd Why?

So in the wild card game Huddy can no hit the Braves and Dan Uggla can hit a Walk Off Grand Slam and I can run around Atlanta masturbating furiously to the cadence of that stupid tomahawk chop.... that's why.

wpa2629 · « **Reply #1023 on:** July 21, 2014, 04:32:23 pm »

Quote from: Copecwby20 on July 21, 2014, 03:58:28 pm

So in the wild card game Huddy can no hit the Braves and Dan Uggla can hit a Walk Off Grand Slam and I can run around Atlanta masturbating furiously to the cadence of that stupid tomahawk chop.... that's why.

bwak

lollers

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #1024 on:** July 21, 2014, 04:45:46 pm »

Quote from: 3bside on July 21, 2014, 03:54:23 pm

This article is backwards. It's the Braves who let the Nats hang around while Danny Espinosa, Kevin Frandsen, Nate McLouth, Jose Lobaton and Taylor Jordan were getting regular playing time. They put us away last year with two big win streaks in April and July. This year, they've lost too many games to the likes of the Mets, Marlins, Phillies and Red Sox.

Quoting wRC+ without discussing injuries is kind of strange. The Barves have had their injuries, too, like Gattis, and have freed themselves of anchors like Uggla, which would depress a stat that compares weighted runs created to average, but wouldn't a better measure of the offenses be to compare ROS wOBA projections of the anticipated lineups?