Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy to have 2nd TJ Surgery

[Ray D]

I can't imagine Rizzo ever addressing a need so quickly and decisively.

How do you know Rizzo didn't try?  He may not have wanted to come here.  Atlanta gives him a chance to be the savior. Here, he would have been  #5.

[PC]

When you're enemy is making a mistake, you don't stop him. Even if Santana repeats last season, he can't replace Medlen and Beachy. They're betting a lot on Tehran right now.

But how is it a mistake?  They are in a better position with Santana than without him, right now.

The Braves have invested an enormous amount in winning this season.  The Nationals have invested even more and, right now, we're in a worse position, relative to the Braves.

[Slateman]

But how is it a mistake?  They are in a better position with Santana than without him, right now.

The Braves have invested an enormous amount in winning this season.  The Nationals have invested even more and, right now, we're in a worse position, relative to the Braves.

Are they? Santana is overrated. Denying him to the Braves is not worth a first round draft pick.

And how are we worse than the Braves?

[PC]

How do you know Rizzo didn't try?  He may not have wanted to come here.  Atlanta gives him a chance to be the savior. Here, he would have been  #5.

This is incredibly unlikely.  Savior or #5, his chances would have been much better of improving his value with the Nationals than the Braves, this season.

It's anathema for Rizzo to take in information and make decisive decisions this quickly.  Look at the long list of players he's been unwilling to cut loose, long after the players had shown they should have been let go.

[CurlyW4lyfe]

Yeah, the starter with the elbow inflammation and playing catch in the next few days is in way worse shape than the one that needs a second TJS. My bad.

[wpa2629]

PC the tenaciousness of your anti Rizzo crusade is admirable, but in this instance you're all wet.  Nats do not need nor want Santana

What Atlanta does is what Atlanta does, Nats are well positioned as they are. They can't spend their time trying react to every move other teams make

At some point you just have to put on your big boy pants and play -

[HalfSmokes]

one year of santana isn't worth the draft pick or the draft pool money for a team that already has a decent rotation. Let the braves give up the pick

[PC]

Are they? Santana is overrated. Denying him to the Braves is not worth a first round draft pick.

And how are we worse than the Braves?

Worse RELATIVELY to the Braves, not worse absolutely.

And since Santana is already an established major league player, it's a safe bet that he'll have a better major league career than that #1 pick.  I don't get the overvaluing of draft picks, particularly for teams that are preparing to win, right now.  A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.  Look at the number of #1 picks that have washed out, just for this franchise.

A quality major league player is more valuable than a draft pick unless you're rebuilding, imo.

EDIT - I actually just looked up this franchise's #1 picks over the last ten years and most of them have not been wash outs.

The washouts/unknowns are Giolito (for the time being), Willems, Marrero

The non-washouts are Rendon, Harper, Meyer (he was traded for a major league player) Strasburg, Storen, Detwiler, Zimmerman, Bray

[JCA-CrystalCity]

PC - even by your standards, you can't call Giolito a wash out or even an unknown because he clearly has value now as trade material. 

[NJ Ave]

Well they'd be signing Santana for ~$15M and giving up a draft pick that teams value around $15M, so it seems like a pretty big move for the block. Especially when the Braves could just go out and make a trade for another pitcher anyways.

How about we put on our bigboy pants and just hammer Ervin Santana all year long?

[PC]

Well they'd be signing Santana for ~$15M and giving up a draft pick that teams value around $15M, so it seems like a pretty big move for the block. Especially when the Braves could just go out and make a trade for another pitcher anyways.

How about we put on our bigboy pants and just hammer Ervin Santana all year long?

That'll work too. 

[NJ Ave]

The bottom line is: if at the end of the season we look back and say, "Ervin Santana kept us from making the playoffs," well then...we're doing it wrong.

[Optics]

lolol Santana, he'd be like our 6th best pitcher. I don't buy the notion that we should sign a guy just so he doesn't go to a rival. I'm not afraid of the Braves no matter who they acquire.

[Baseball is Life]

because it's easier to bloviate about how tough guys used to be, and pampering, and old school than it is to talk about how arms are inherently fragile and may need to be treated that way

This. The old farts in baseball love to talk about how tough they were compared to today's players. And some of the present-day macho man-fans buy into it.

[PC]

Santana a panic move for Atlanta
By one measure, the cost of his one-year deal is more than $33 million
By Dan Szymborski | ESPN Insider

Ervin Santana-mania ended abruptly this morning, with Santana headed to the Atlanta Braves on a one-year contract worth $14.1 million. While there's a great deal of uncertainty around Santana's eventual 2014 performance, there's no such guessing about how expensive the signing is for the Braves -- very.

 The prime motivation for Atlanta's signing of Santana is tied to the health of Kris Medlen. Taken out of a game due to elbow soreness Sunday, Medlen is heading to Dr. James Andrews to have the ligament damage in his elbow examined. Medlen is a survivor of a previous Tommy John surgery, and if he's heading for another one, his 2014 is over and the Braves are without one of their key starters in what looks to be a close National League East race with the Nationals.

 The NL is a better fit for Santana, and his projection reflects the environment. A ZiPS outlook of 11-8 and a 3.59 ERA in 190 1/3 innings for Atlanta is one of the better team projections for Santana; when I run ZiPS in all 30 stadiums, Camden Yards and Rogers Centre, two of his rumored destinations, were two of the worst homes for Santana, ranking 27th and 29th respectively in terms of ERA compared to league average. At 2.9 projected WAR, Santana is worth his $14 million salary.

 The big problem for the Braves is the additional cost, the loss of a first-rounder for one season of paying Santana a reasonable salary. Where the Blue Jays would lose a pick in the low 50s and the O's lost pick would be in the 90s, the Braves lose No. 26. For a team that likes to keep its payroll under $100 million and likely won't do anything crazy when it eventually moves into its new stadium, that's a real hit.

The pre-free-agency value for the typical 26th pick is roughly 3.5 WAR, and that amount of talent would cost $19.6 million in the free-agency market. While the majority of prospects don't succeed, the payout when they do is massive. The Braves may be missing out on the next Craig Hansen (No. 26 overall in 2005), which wouldn't be so harmful, but they could also be missing out on the next Alan Trammell (No. 26 in 1976) or Dan Plesac (1983).

Add the $19.6 million to the salary Santana will make in Atlanta and we're talking about a de facto $33.7 million preliminary cost for one season of Santana's services. In one way of looking at it, Santana is the most expensive pitcher over the course of a single season in baseball history. While there's at least a chance that the Braves get another pick on the back end of the signing if they give Santana a qualifying offer next season, that's far from a certainty.

After all, Santana, who posted an ERA above 5.00 in 2009 and 2012, got limited interest coming off the best ERA of his career and nobody had the stomach to lose a first-rounder for him. There's no reason to think that would be any different next season unless he is significantly better than he was in 2013. Santana's experience dealing with an ice-cold market after turning down a qualifying offer could make him more likely to accept one next season.

This is a move that smells of panic. Mike Minor may start the season on the disabled list, Gavin Floyd won't be ready to start the year, and Brandon Beachy's health is a concern. The short-term rotation looks thin behind Julio Teheran and Alex Wood, but Minor will be back and odds are at least one of Floyd and Beachy will be able to contribute. It's easy to skip the fifth starter early in the season, and there's a lot to be said of patience while you look for opportunity -- the difference between a good pitcher and Cody Martin/Freddy Garcia over the course of a month being only a handful of runs. It's not Santana or bust, after all, and if the Braves are going to pay such a high price, they may as well have it go toward a trade for David Price or Jeff Samardzija.

Moves made out of panic frequently turn out to be rash. This one is no exception.


http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10594065/ervin-santana-signing-panic-move-atlanta-braves-mlb

[BigMeech]

Yeah, I'm going to have to turn on my fellow LoD brothers and say that signing Ervin Santana would have been a p. stupid move on Rizzo's part.  If Ervin Santana ends up being the game-changer in the race for the NL East then we just weren't that good to begin with.

[HalfSmokes]

Yeah, I'm going to have to turn on my fellow LoD brothers and say that signing Ervin Santana would have been a p. stupid move on Rizzo's part.  If Ervin Santana ends up being the game-changer in the race for the NL East then we just weren't that good to begin with.

besides PC, who thinks Rizzo should have signed Santana?

[comish4lif]

This. The old farts in baseball love to talk about how tough they were compared to today's players. And some of the present-day macho man-fans buy into it.

In the old days, guys would pitch until their arms literally fell off (See Dave Dravecky).

[comish4lif]

Don't forget Jonny Venters.  They pitched him to death two years ago, and he's now recovering from his second TJ.  They're becoming the poster child for what not to do with TJ.  Knock wood that SS and JZim stay healthy. 

Elbows are going to blow or not blow....

In 2011, pitcher A made 85 appearances in 88 innings, and in 2012, pitcher A made 66 appearances and completed 58 2/3 innings.

In 2011, pitcher B made 72 appearances in 88 1/3 innings, and in 2012, pitcher B made 74 appearances and completed 72 2/3 innings.

For both pitchers, 2011-2012 were their age 26-27 seasons.

Pitcher A is Johnny Venters, pitcher B is Tyler Clippard. Which one was pitched to death?

[Slateman]

Whoa. . . .  PC went full retard

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Never go full retard.

[Vega]

Whoa. . . .  PC went full retard

Pretty sure that happened at birth for him.

[Slateman]

Pretty sure that happened at birth for him.

Listen, shouldn't you be chasing skirts?

[Lintyfresh85]

lolol Santana, he'd be like our 6th best pitcher. I don't buy the notion that we should sign a guy just so he doesn't go to a rival. I'm not afraid of the Braves no matter who they acquire.

No.

He didn't need to be signed by the Nats but hyperbole is hyperbole.

[Slateman]

He'd be the fifth best.And you could argue that as the number 5 starter, he wouldn't be much better. Santana got much of his WAR value out of going 200 innings. As the number 5, Santana would be more likely to see 165-175 innings.

So, in reality, Ervin Santana is a marginal improvement. Which is not worth 14 million and a draft pick.