It is not clear, but the thinking probably starts with he's not a $14MM catcher. 2 highest catcher salaries going into 2013 were Mauer around $20MM, then Yadi at $14.2MM. Posey I think is about to go up to $20MM and montero is about to go up to $12.5MM. The .372 BABIP also looks high relative to 2011 and 2012. Actually had a drop in power this year while his BA / OBP went up.
They probably would not mind giving him something like 3/ $30MM, which they may try, but once he's making $14.1MM, he's probably not going to want to bargain that away for a pay cut in AAV. If he turns back into the <2 AR guy he's been, then they would have a hard time getting him to stick around.