Author Topic: Fielder  (Read 288391 times)

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Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1425 on: January 06, 2012, 06:43:26 am »
Reason 4: Leadership for Harper and young players - See, this is where the Caps and Pens diverged, to the betterment of the Pens.  McPhee eschewed the vets (or went dumpster diving for the likes of Corvo who gave age rather than maturity) for the most part for the sake of roster flexibility and a future window always a year or two down the road.  The sole exception was getting Fedorov for a song, who promptly showed leadership and got the Caps the furthest they've gone in their ongoing 'window.'  On the other hand, the Pens prioritized roster space and spending towards vets that helped develop the on-roster talent, and they've already got a Cup and other deep trips into the playoffs under their belts.

Nice analysis

Offline shoeshineboy

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1426 on: January 06, 2012, 07:21:07 am »
I'd like to have Fielder, but I don't really understand the sentiment that looks at signing Fielder as some critical step for the franchise. It reminds me of when people were desperate to re-sign Dunn. The particular player doesn't matter. What matters is what they do overall. This team could make a lot of improvements spending that money on a combination of players if they were willing to make trades and absorb decent salaries. Signing Fielder adds a very powerful force to the lineup. But if doing so hamstrings them to make other moves that are necessary to improve and sustain a winner for an extended period, then it is a problem.

To me, this team should have a 90-100M payroll now. The Zuckerman piece warning about a 100M payroll by 2015 is laughable. That would be below average for a market like DC by then. This team is making money hand over fist. The ballpark and market is a gold mine. A winner on the field plus the draw they get from several visiting teams generates a huge rake. To date, the Lerners have spent zero money out of their own pockets while they have pulled money out of the team to service the debt on their note. It won't be long until they have a billion dollar asset they paid nothing for. They don't have to dig into their own pockets. They could simply put the money back into the team and have an expanded payroll needed to get a winner.

Signing Werth was a massive overpay to make up for their earlier miscalculations and an attempt to try and do something to make the team a more attractive destination. They have a core of young talent, a top prospect on the horizon, and an improved pitching staff. They shouldn't have to blow their wad on Fielder to build credibility. If the plan is to add him and continue to expand payroll to a legit big market level, great. If it would simply be loading everything into a couple players and trying to get by with that and hope it works out, they should spend more wisely.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1427 on: January 06, 2012, 07:28:09 am »
I'd like to have Fielder, but I don't really understand the sentiment that looks at signing Fielder as some critical step for the franchise. It reminds me of when people were desperate to re-sign Dunn. The particular player doesn't matter. What matters is what they do overall. This team could make a lot of improvements spending that money on a combination of players if they were willing to make trades and absorb decent salaries. Signing Fielder adds a very powerful force to the lineup. But if doing so hamstrings them to make other moves that are necessary to improve and sustain a winner for an extended period, than it is a problem.

To me, this team should have a 90-100M payroll now. The Zuckerman piece warning about a 100M payroll by 2015 is laughable. That would be below average for a market like DC by then. This team is making money hand over fist. The ballpark and market is a gold mine. A winner on the field plus the draw they get from several visiting teams generates a huge rake. To date, the Lerners have spent zero money out of their own pockets while they have pulled money out of the team to service the debt on their note. It won't be long until they have a billion dollar asset they paid nothing for. They don't have to dig into their own pockets. They could simply put the money back into the team and have an expanded payroll needed to get a winner.

Signing Werth was a massive overpay to make up for their earlier miscalculations and an attempt to try and do something to make the team a more attractive destination. They have a core of young talent, a top prospect on the horizon, and an improved pitching staff. They shouldn't have to blow their wad on Fielder to build credibility. If the plan is to add him and continue to expand payroll to a legit big market level, great. If it would simply be loading everything into a couple players and trying to get by with that and hope it works out, they should spend more wisely.

Signing Fielder is a critical step for 2012, he's the difference between taking a leap forward or standing pat and hoping our guys play better.  All of the analysis of payroll implications and statistical projections of win totals aside, having Fielder will raise the anticipation level for the season to a point that we haven't seen since 2005.

Offline shoeshineboy

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1428 on: January 06, 2012, 07:37:59 am »
Signing Fielder is a critical step for 2012, he's the difference between taking a leap forward or standing pat and hoping our guys play better.  All of the analysis of payroll implications and statistical projections of win totals aside, having Fielder will raise the anticipation level for the season to a point that we haven't seen since 2005.

Signing Fielder would be a big move for 2012, no doubt. I just don't see how it is ever critical for any team to sign one specific free agent. It was a big move for the Angels to sign Pujols, but I can't see how it was critical that they do so. There are other ways to spend the money. I would agree that it would be a huge PR and talent grab for the franchise that could be a big turning point, and Nats are certainly in a position where they need that more than others. However, that would presume that they would be prepared to build on that move, that it signals the next phase of team history where they are prepared to be the Yankees of the NL East. Are they prepared to make their mark and declare open war on the Phillies and other elite franchises in terms of talent and payroll? If yes, great. It becomes a pivotal moment for the franchise. If not, and they simply look at that signing as the catalyst for future cost cutting moves, then to me, it becomes a pivotal moment in franchise history for other reasons. And that is what concerns me.


Offline MarquisDeSade

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1429 on: January 06, 2012, 07:41:55 am »
If not, and they simply look at that signing as the catalyst for future cost cutting moves, then to me, it becomes a pivotal moment in franchise history for other reasons. And that is what concerns me.

No trolling or joking here - what have we seen to indicate that is not the case with the Lerners?  I hope I'm wrong on this, but I don't see a dynasty being built with them.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1430 on: January 06, 2012, 07:47:27 am »
Signing Fielder would be a big move for 2012, no doubt. I just don't see how it is ever critical for any team to sign one specific free agent. It was a big move for the Angels to sign Pujols, but I can't see how it was critical that they do so. There are other ways to spend the money. I would agree that it would be a huge PR and talent grab for the franchise that could be a big turning point, and Nats are certainly in a position where they need that more than others. However, that would presume that they would be prepared to build on that move, that it signals the next phase of team history where they are prepared to be the Yankees of the NL East. Are they prepared to make their mark and declare open war on the Phillies and other elite franchises in terms of talent and payroll? If yes, great. It becomes a pivotal moment for the franchise. If not, and they simply look at that signing as the catalyst for future cost cutting moves, then to me, it becomes a pivotal moment in franchise history for other reasons. And that is what concerns me.

I'd certainly agree that Fielder is not critical for this team to contend long term.  I'm not one who feels that any of our current players are untouchable for trades, so I certainly don't feel the need to sign any particular free agent, but I do want this team to break out of their holding pattern and make a bold move now.  Fielder is the top guy available and apparently we are close to a deal, so if this is the decision made by the team, I'm all in behind them.

Offline Rasta

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1431 on: January 06, 2012, 08:19:08 am »
Signing Fielder would be a big move for 2012, no doubt. I just don't see how it is ever critical for any team to sign one specific free agent. It was a big move for the Angels to sign Pujols, but I can't see how it was critical that they do so. There are other ways to spend the money. I would agree that it would be a huge PR and talent grab for the franchise that could be a big turning point, and Nats are certainly in a position where they need that more than others. However, that would presume that they would be prepared to build on that move, that it signals the next phase of team history where they are prepared to be the Yankees of the NL East. Are they prepared to make their mark and declare open war on the Phillies and other elite franchises in terms of talent and payroll? If yes, great. It becomes a pivotal moment for the franchise. If not, and they simply look at that signing as the catalyst for future cost cutting moves, then to me, it becomes a pivotal moment in franchise history for other reasons. And that is what concerns me.



Well said!  I'm not on the Prince or bust bandwagon.  I am one of those who feels it's time for this franchise to take a step forward by spending money on the level of similar teams in their situation.  How they do it is their problem.  Just make this team competitive with teams in their division.  There is simply no reason for this franchise to be bottom 5 or 10 in revenue.  And for the folks who keep talking about the payroll being 100 million down the road, what proof do we have that the Lerners are willing to do that?  All these assumptions that they will do it based on increased money from MASN don't mean anything until the Lerners actually do it. 

Until I see actual money spent and the payroll increase significantly then the LAC is still a valid argument.  Time for them to play with the big boys. 


Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1432 on: January 06, 2012, 08:29:38 am »
No trolling or joking here - what have we seen to indicate that is not the case with the Lerners?  I hope I'm wrong on this, but I don't see a dynasty being built with them.

I agree with this sentiment.

Which is why I'm also worried about a Fielder signing, even if it would be good for us in 2012 and exciting to be part of a pennant race.

If after 2012 we have to trade Zim, then it becomes a lateral move at best on the field and probably a big hit taken in credibility off the field.

Offline blue911

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1433 on: January 06, 2012, 08:31:21 am »
I agree with this sentiment.

Which is why I'm also worried about a Fielder signing, even if it would be good for us in 2012 and exciting to be part of a pennant race.

If after 2012 we have to trade Zim, then it becomes a lateral move at best on the field and probably a big hit taken in credibility off the field.


When you start with zero credibility, how much can you lose?

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1434 on: January 06, 2012, 08:33:14 am »
When you start with zero credibility, how much can you lose?

With Werth and Prince, they will have built some.  Even the LAC crowd would admit that much.

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1435 on: January 06, 2012, 08:37:25 am »
With Werth and Prince, they will have built some.  Even the LAC crowd would admit that much.

Werth didn't increase total payroll, so his signing came at the expense of bench depth.  Fielder will be a step in the right direction.  Plus, having Fielder will bring out the best in the other guys, so the albatross might actually earn his money next year.

Offline comish4lif

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1436 on: January 06, 2012, 08:38:12 am »
These are tough times financially and people didnt exactly flock to the park last year.

The Park doesn't get filled until the Nats win and make a playoff run. Until then, in the eyes of the local populace, we're a back to back 100 loss team and that doesn't change until the Nats make the playoffs, or at least, get real darned close. Attendance always lags winning by a year.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1437 on: January 06, 2012, 09:11:13 am »
You mean if the Nats outbid 28 other teams, they're in the doghouse?  That seems a bit extreme of a view.

No that isn't exactly what I meant. Boras has the reputation of being able to pull of deals for ludicrous amounts - Arod and Werth for example.  His livelihood rests on that reputation. And many people have cited his reputation when asserting their conviction that Fielder will get a ridiculous deal from some team - maybe not quite a Pujols type deal but not far off.  However at some point teams are not going to continue to blindly sign whatever deal Boras tells them to.  That might be the case here, with Fielder.  It may be that there is no team willing to give him more than five years @ $22M (which is great money, but not a Pujols like deal).   And so Fielder will have no choice but to sign for that. It doesn't matter if it's with the Nats or another team, Boras's reputation will take a hit, and he will be pissed off, and most pissed off at the Nationals because that was the team he most expected to fall for his charm.

Offline blue911

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1438 on: January 06, 2012, 09:19:15 am »
With Werth and Prince, they will have built some.  Even the LAC crowd would admit that much.

No. The LAC "Crowd" will say that $100M was what the payroll should have been from the beginning. That fielding a competent team* would have brought in an extra 400,000-500,000 fans ($20M-$25M) and would have also increased advertising revenue (Signage) as well made the naming rights to Nationals Park (currently $0) somewhat more sell-able at range of $10M per year. That ownership is responsible for leaving more than $35M a year as untapped revenue.



* I'm not even saying a playoff team but a team that could be expected to play .500 ball.

Offline tomterp

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1439 on: January 06, 2012, 09:22:00 am »
They have plenty of flexibility to sign Prince.  PLENTY.  They also have plenty of room to spare their pockets. 



I think you should source that graph.

Offline mach1ne

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1440 on: January 06, 2012, 09:22:37 am »
Boras is asking for some ridiculous amount of money and the Nats aren't giving in this time is why he hasn't signed yet IMO.  The advantage the Nats have over the Cubs and Mariners is that it's closer to his home in Orlando and the Nats are the better team.



Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1441 on: January 06, 2012, 09:26:30 am »
No. The LAC "Crowd" will say that $100M was what the payroll should have been from the beginning. That fielding a competent team* would have brought in an extra 400,000-500,000 fans ($20M-$25M) and would have also increased advertising revenue (Signage) as well made the naming rights to Nationals Park (currently $0) somewhat more sell-able at range of $10M per year. That ownership is responsible for leaving more than $35M a year as untapped revenue.



* I'm not even saying a playoff team but a team that could be expected to play .500 ball.

Maybe so.  They'd be right in saying a lot of that.

Offline Tyler Durden

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1442 on: January 06, 2012, 09:31:03 am »
Boras is asking for some ridiculous amount of money and the Nats aren't giving in this time is why he hasn't signed yet IMO.  The advantage the Nats have over the Cubs and Mariners is that it's closer to his home in Orlando and the Nats are the better team.




This is probably the case.  I thought the Dodgers might be a 'mystery team' type dark horse candidate.  But they haven't extended Ethier or, more importantly, Kershaw yet.  I don't know if they'd want to commit to a big money signing with Kershaw's extension still oustanding and their ownership situation unresolved. 

It may just be us by default.

Offline Rasta

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1443 on: January 06, 2012, 09:32:26 am »
If after 2012 we have to trade Zim, then it becomes a lateral move at best on the field and probably a big hit taken in credibility off the field.

I'm not sure about that.  I love Zim as much as anyone but it depends on what they get in return in a trade.  If they don't get squat back then sure it hurts credibility.  If they get a great player (but not as good as Zim) in return and a stud prospect who is ready to play like they did with Ramos then I think after the initial shock wears off people will be happy.

It's all about winning.  If they trade Zim and get a great return and the team is contending then people who are upset about Zim will be at the park and watching the team.


Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1444 on: January 06, 2012, 09:42:58 am »
I'm not sure about that.  I love Zim as much as anyone but it depends on what they get in return in a trade.  If they don't get squat back then sure it hurts credibility.  If they get a great player (but not as good as Zim) in return and a stud prospect who is ready to play like they did with Ramos then I think after the initial shock wears off people will be happy.

It's all about winning.  If they trade Zim and get a great return and the team is contending then people who are upset about Zim will be at the park and watching the team.


After this year he's a one year rental, so I doubt the haul is enough to justify losing your best offensive player unless you go into rebuild mode, but then why did they sign Werth and bring in Gio?

Offline Five Banners

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1445 on: January 06, 2012, 09:43:16 am »
I'd like to have Fielder, but I don't really understand the sentiment that looks at signing Fielder as some critical step for the franchise. It reminds me of when people were desperate to re-sign Dunn. The particular player doesn't matter. What matters is what they do overall. This team could make a lot of improvements spending that money on a combination of players if they were willing to make trades and absorb decent salaries. Signing Fielder adds a very powerful force to the lineup. But if doing so hamstrings them to make other moves that are necessary to improve and sustain a winner for an extended period, then it is a problem.

You answer your own question as to why people feel signing Fielder is so critical.  As you say, this team could improve via number of creative moves over time.  However, this is the third offseason under Rizzo's leadership.  In the 2009-2010 offseason, we needed help in many places but specifically at the top of the rotation.  Rizzo specifically told Ladson the team “[has] to have” an veteran ace that would mentor the young prospects on the staff.  Yet, the team immediately set their sights on "lower-tier options" as Boswell put it, with Kasten chiming in that “I don't sign major free agents until they are the last piece [of the puzzle]."  Rizzo made it clear that the spending not happening on pitching wasn't going to occur elsewhere: “I don't see us going after that super free agent like Matt Holliday.  I don't see us playing on that level.”  The speculation was that improvement was going to have to come via trades, but no big trades that offseason or upcoming trade deadline delivered what Rizzo had sought.

The next offseason, with Dunn and 'Ham out the door, power and top of the rotation help were again needed.  The first of the team's creative moves had us negotiate against ourselves and hand out a deal to Werth that the backers kept saying wasn't a big deal since the money was there in the endless Lerner coffers to make it all right if it turned out to be a colossal overpay on the wrong guy.  Plenty of us speculated that it was straight-up payback for two straight successful negotiations with Boras, but the soul-searching about future implications (now exclusively reserve for the Fielder speculation) was drowned out by approbation for the Lerners’ finally getting in the FA game.  Next, Rizzo put all of his starting pitching improvement eggs in the Zach Greinke basket.  The no-trade clause got in the way, marking another offseason without Rizzo being able to cross a top item off his list.  (We won’t even go into the way the first base ‘last man standing’ drama devolved…) 

We entered this offseason with a power vacuum, gaping holes at the leadoff spot and at CF (you'd think Rizzo would have the guts to groom Harper for it no matter what Boras think, but that never even gets seriously discussed, apparently) and - wait for it - the need for some help at the top of the rotation.  Possible leadoff options from Reyes to Rollins go off the table first, followed by the top pitching options which included Rizzo’s targeted inning-eating lefty Buerhle.  Worse, it was the Marlins coming up bigger than Rizzo would to get him, spending like we’d been waiting for our team to do as they got set to open their new ballpark.  Meanwhile, fans were remembering as the team sat on its hands that the trade deadline made the Nats sellers, moving Marquis purportedly for salary relief, something that sounded a little odd and ominous for those who'd been assured that Werth's deal wouldn't become a factor in future roster moves. 

All of a sudden, we’re hearing about presentations before ownership committees and a refusal to spend what it takes.  Next thing you know, Rizzo’s digging deep into the cherished farm system to get a young lefty, giving a big enough number of top prospects that it’s not likely to happen often.  So why have I laid out what’s transpired over Rizzo’s offseasons and trade deadlines?  To show how hard it is despite the best laid plans to fill the holes on a roster for a team that’s tried since last year to make the transition into a contender.  Even if you think you have it a player all lined up to fill your top priority (Greinke last year and Buerhle this year), the realities of a competitive industry are always there.  It’s downright hilarious for Rizzo to talk about future crops of players he hopes will be there for the picking (e.g. the 2013 gaggle of CFs) after he’s gone three straight offseasons with specific to-do-lists and has only partially completed it thanks to a late-inning swap of a bevy of prospects. 

It’s also been particularly tough for this GM to get things done creatively, whether it’s because of him (which I fear is definitely a part since he seems to narrow into the type of player he wants from the glovey Adonis in the field to contact-dependent pitchers and leaves little to no room for deviation), the committee he must face, or a combo of both.  So it’s a bit of a miracle that Rizzo’s sitting here with the possibility to make a deal for a guy that could be so transformational for this club and its contending aspirations.  There’s been no such fit in previous seasons sitting there for the taking (with no pesky Yanks-Sox drama for the agent to play off of as in the Tex saga), and all with no trade clauses or prospect swapping needed.  Speaking of prospect swapping, signing Fielder is also the difference between a wildly successful offseason and one where our offense still looks spotty and our GM got caught looking for the most part on Buehrle etc. and had to ship out four of the team’s top ten prospects to have anything of note to take from the offseason.  This is why signing Fielder is so critical, because we have as sure of a chance of truly upgrading our roster as we’ll ever have in a process fraught with uncertainty, and our GM doesn’t have to be a rocket scientist to make it happen. 

Offline tomterp

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1446 on: January 06, 2012, 09:53:31 am »
Fielder is probably only slightly more productive than Dunn was in his 2 years here.

Dunn's OPS+ = 144, 138 for the two seasons.  Fielder career 143 (135, 164 last two years).

Just saying.

Offline Lintyfresh85

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1447 on: January 06, 2012, 09:54:12 am »
To Five Banners post

/thread

:clap:

Offline Five Banners

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1448 on: January 06, 2012, 09:54:19 am »
Fielder is probably only slightly more productive than Dunn was in his 2 years here.

Dunn's OPS+ = 144, 138 for the two seasons.  Fielder career 143 (135, 164 last two years).

Just saying.

And Dunn was really productive here.  Just sayin'.

Offline Rasta

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Re: Fielder.
« Reply #1449 on: January 06, 2012, 09:57:36 am »
After this year he's a one year rental, so I doubt the haul is enough to justify losing your best offensive player unless you go into rebuild mode, but then why did they sign Werth and bring in Gio?


As I said, maybe or maybe not.  I'm not going to assume they won't get a good haul.  Zim is not a Boras client.  If a team had the right to negotiate a long term deal without him hitting the open market then we might get a very good return.  The point is we just don't know.  It could go either way. 

If Rendon is tearing it up at 3B and is the player we hope he is and you could get a stud CF and a great SS prospect and improve your team then it's a win win.

Having said that, I hope they find a way to keep Zim and sign Fielder.  I personally am not one who believes that signing both means you can't keep all your young studs.  I don't think anyone doubts that this market could sustain a payroll of 120-130 million.  It's a matter of whether the Lerners will do it IMO.