Author Topic: 2011 Trade Watch (was trade deadline watch) (Read 85418 times)

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #450 on:** July 27, 2011, 05:45:43 pm »

Quote from: sportsnyan882 on July 27, 2011, 05:32:34 pm

His Power and Steals have been way down the last two seasons. These are red flags in my mind unless there is something that can explain them.

2008: .432 SLG and 18 SBs in 347 ABs
2009: .415 SLG and 23 SBs in 578 ABs
2010: .348 SLG and 26 SBs in 629 ABs
2011: .385 SLG and 4 SBs in 231 ABs

The only reason his slugging is slightly up this year is that his BA is 30 points higher than last year. Doubles, Triples, HRs all down.

I'm not sure how you can say his steals are down the past 2 years when last year he stole 26 bases on the chart you put in your post. The SLG will be a problem, but it is less of a problem for a lead off hitter. He's also signed through 2015*, which locks up the position for a while.

Quote from: NatsSince05 on July 27, 2011, 05:32:30 pm

Storen could be our closer for the next decade. Span is a good, but far from elite, player. I don't believe the Nats would make this trade.

Other than Rivera and Hoffman, name me another closer who has closed for one team for a decade in the past 30 years? Sutter get in 10 with one team?

More realistically, name the young all star closer in the past decade whose team has remained happy with him for more than 6 years? K-Rod? no - only 4 years as the primary closer. Papelbon - warmer. Just 6 years, but to say they were happy with him long term misses that they never signed him more for more than a year and may let him walk this year. Jenks? lost his job at the end of last year. The Chief? sorry for the sore subject. Soria? not yet. And so on.

* 2015 is a reasonable option - $9MM.

DPMOmaha · « **Reply #451 on:** July 27, 2011, 05:48:33 pm »

Quote from: sportsnyan882 on July 27, 2011, 05:28:52 pm

... in his first fool season...

Just quoting for posterity...

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #452 on:** July 27, 2011, 05:50:05 pm »

Everyday CF'er for a closer? Yes please, and twice on Sunday!

Slateman · « **Reply #453 on:** July 27, 2011, 05:50:16 pm »

Quote from: Minty Fresh on July 27, 2011, 05:03:42 pm

Nobody plays 162 games. Nobody.

Orly

Minty Fresh · « **Reply #454 on:** July 27, 2011, 05:50:26 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on July 27, 2011, 05:45:43 pm

Other than Rivera and Hoffman, name me another closer who has closed for one team for a decade in the past 30 years? Sutter get in 10 with one team?

More realistically, name the young all star closer in the past decade whose team has remained happy with him for more than 6 years? K-Rod? no - only 4 years as the primary closer. Papelbon - warmer. Just 6 years, but to say they were happy with him long term misses that they never signed him more for more than a year and may let him walk this year. Jenks? lost his job at the end of last year. The Chief? sorry for the sore subject. Soria? not yet. And so on.

Just because players don't close for the same team for 10 years doesn't mean they shouldn't. Lee Smith, Billy Wagner, hell even Hoffman all closed for multiple teams. The Padres got rid of Hoffman when he was spent, but Wagner and Smith went on to have great careers with other teams.

You said earlier that closer is a life skill that few possess. I believe Storen is one of those and he shouldn't be traded unless you get a superstar player in return. I am willing to take the chance on Storen - the same risk that I wouldn't take on Clippard despite Clipp being an All-Star.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #455 on:** July 27, 2011, 06:03:40 pm »

Minty - you are right about good closers moving to new teams and closing. K-Rod might be an example recently. however, more or less the rule on closers is they become pretty cost / length of contract prohibitive to sane GMs as they get close to free agency. K-Rod and who signed him would be a good example. The true elite, like Wagner, are in a different class. Maybe Storen is in that class, but it is too early to say, and the burn out rate is pretty high.

I agree Storen shows some signs of being a rare one who has the head and the arm, and has quite a bit of value in trade. I don't view it as ludicrous that he brings back a player who is a good starting CF whose only weakness is power. I'd swallow hard, but probably would do it if I were satisfied with Span's meds.

sportsfan882 · « **Reply #456 on:** July 27, 2011, 06:05:48 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on July 27, 2011, 05:45:43 pm

I'm not sure how you can say his steals are down the past 2 years when last year he stole 26 bases on the chart you put in your post. The SLG will be a problem, but it is less of a problem for a lead off hitter. He's also signed through 2015*, which locks up the position for a while.
Other than Rivera and Hoffman, name me another closer who has closed for one team for a decade in the past 30 years? Sutter get in 10 with one team?

More realistically, name the young all star closer in the past decade whose team has remained happy with him for more than 6 years? K-Rod? no - only 4 years as the primary closer. Papelbon - warmer. Just 6 years, but to say they were happy with him long term misses that they never signed him more for more than a year and may let him walk this year. Jenks? lost his job at the end of last year. The Chief? sorry for the sore subject. Soria? not yet. And so on.

* 2015 is a reasonable option - $9MM.

Where have his steals gone this year though? SLG is less of a problem but he is a much better player in my eyes when he can slug .415-.432 like his first couple of seasons.

wpa2629 · « **Reply #457 on:** July 27, 2011, 06:05:48 pm »

AdamMcCalvy Adam McCalvy
by MarkZuckerman
#Brewers got $1 for Nieves from the Braves, who are on the hook for his remaining salary.

Minty Fresh · « **Reply #458 on:** July 27, 2011, 06:06:17 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on July 27, 2011, 06:03:40 pm

Minty - you are right about good closers moving to new teams and closing. K-Rod might be an example recently. however, more or less the rule on closers is they become pretty cost / length of contract prohibitive to sane GMs as they get close to free agency. K-Rod and who signed him would be a good example. The true elite, like Wagner, are in a different class. Maybe Storen is in that class, but it is too early to say, and the burn out rate is pretty high.

I agree Storen shows some signs of being a rare one who has the head and the arm, and has quite a bit of value in trade. I don't view it as ludicrous that he brings back a player who is a good starting CF whose only weakness is power. I'd swallow hard, but probably would do it if I were satisfied with Span's meds.

Then we agree to disagree and I therefore call you a jerk for disagreeing with me!

PatsNats28 · « **Reply #459 on:** July 27, 2011, 06:09:08 pm »

Quote from: wpa2629 on July 27, 2011, 06:05:48 pm

AdamMcCalvy Adam McCalvy
by MarkZuckerman
#Brewers got $1 for Nieves from the Braves, who are on the hook for his remaining salary.

typo?

wpa2629 · « **Reply #460 on:** July 27, 2011, 06:09:27 pm »

You're both jerks!

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #461 on:** July 27, 2011, 06:13:11 pm »

Quote from: sportsnyan882 on July 27, 2011, 06:05:48 pm

Where have his steals gone this year though? SLG is less of a problem but he is a much better player in my eyes when he can slug .415-.432 like his first couple of seasons.

I don't have a good answer about his steals. We are comparing < 1/2 season stats to full season, but no question they were down. Given how poorly the Twins started, I wonder whether he was table-setting or further down in the order when Morneau and Mauer and Thome and Young were out. It's a good question. We certainly would want to check the medical reports. My point is more that he has had a very good track record over the past few years and, if the down turn can be explained, looks like a solution to a huge problem we've had in the lineup.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #462 on:** July 27, 2011, 06:14:10 pm »

Quote from: Minty Fresh on July 27, 2011, 06:06:17 pm

Then we agree to disagree and I therefore call you a jerk for disagreeing with me!

I disagree that I'm the jerk in this, one of the politest flame wars ever.

Lintyfresh85 · « **Reply #463 on:** July 27, 2011, 06:17:44 pm »

Look at it this way... remove the names Span and Storen from the deal... and just look at what you're getting.

A CF'er with a career .289/.366/.391/.757 line, who also plays solid CF defense and averages over 3 WAR a year...

Or a CL who while very solid, doesn't strike out a ton of hitters (85th best K/9 per RP in 2011) or have a specific out pitch that you can count on at all times.

I don't see how keeping the CL makes sense, at all... especially with Span being under contract till when? 2015?

I think if you remove the names from the equation, you take Span 10 out of 10 times.

Minty Fresh · « **Reply #464 on:** July 27, 2011, 06:22:19 pm »

Quote from: Lintyfresh85 on July 27, 2011, 06:17:44 pm

Look at it this way... remove the names Span and Storen from the deal... and just look at what you're getting.

A CF'er with a career .289/.366/.391/.757 line, who also plays solid CF defense and averages over 3 WAR a year...

Or a CL who while very solid, doesn't strike out a ton of hitters (85th best K/9 per RP in 2011) or have a specific out pitch that you can count on at all times.

I don't see how keeping the CL makes sense, at all... especially with Span being under contract till when? 2015?

I think if you remove the names from the equation, you take Span 10 out of 10 times.

But you cannot argue in a vacuum. Storen is a closer by trade and has been so since college. Well established closers are not a dime a dozen. And Span, while talented, is injured a bit and doesn't project as a superstar.

Both are unproven talent and it comes down to who you take the chance on.

Slateman · « **Reply #465 on:** July 27, 2011, 06:25:07 pm »

I expect Storen to get better

I do not expect Span to get any better.

aspenbubba · « **Reply #466 on:** July 27, 2011, 06:35:48 pm »

Quote from: Slateman on July 27, 2011, 05:50:16 pm

Orly

Ripken

Hondo · « **Reply #467 on:** July 27, 2011, 07:13:45 pm »

Upton is not in the lineup tonight for the Rays and Sunday was his day off....... maybe the nats are bluffing the span deal to get upton.....i prefer span but not for storen

Desmond, Upton and Lombardozzi not playing tonight

kirubel94 · « **Reply #468 on:** July 27, 2011, 07:16:57 pm »

Stephen Lombardozzi is sitting in Syracuse, but don't read anything into it. A scheduled day off.
http://twitter.com/?lang=en&logged_out=1#!/AdamKilgoreWP/status/96352587938410496

sportsfan882 · « **Reply #469 on:** July 27, 2011, 07:17:36 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on July 27, 2011, 06:13:11 pm

I don't have a good answer about his steals. We are comparing < 1/2 season stats to full season, but no question they were down. Given how poorly the Twins started, I wonder whether he was table-setting or further down in the order when Morneau and Mauer and Thome and Young were out. It's a good question. We certainly would want to check the medical reports. My point is more that he has had a very good track record over the past few years and, if the down turn can be explained, looks like a solution to a huge problem we've had in the lineup.

That's fair. I certainly wouldn't mind adding Span to the team but I'd just be hesitant to lose Storen. I could deal with losing Clippard and a couple of prospects even though that would be a blow too.

I don't see why the Twins would do that though. Why would they make this trade centered around a reliever?

sportsfan882 · « **Reply #470 on:** July 27, 2011, 07:27:19 pm »

Quote

JimBowdenESPNxm JIM BOWDEN
Nationals working hard on trying to acquire B.J. Upton from Tampa and Denard Span from Twins...will move Clippard, Storen or Desmond in pckg

wpa2629 · « **Reply #471 on:** July 27, 2011, 07:38:48 pm »

LOL at Ramos getting traded - what a dope

SPTimesRays Marc Topkin
by CaseyStern
With Upton not in #Rays lineup, SS Desmond and C Ramos not in #Nats lineup tonight. Hmmm ....

I can Throw · « **Reply #472 on:** July 27, 2011, 07:39:05 pm »

I'd assume bowden means Desmond and either Clipps or Storen.

kirubel94 · « **Reply #473 on:** July 27, 2011, 07:41:32 pm »

Yeah it is weird that ramos is sitting after catching yesterday and the last time he caught before yesterday was on the 23rd. I think a trade is going down.

sportsfan882 · « **Reply #474 on:** July 27, 2011, 07:42:35 pm »

Ramos has been struggling as of late. Just a day off.

He won't be getting dealt. We can't afford to not have a catcher. Norris needs much more time in the Minors.