I know your position on the matter. You're definitely the most reasonable and easy-to-talk-to person on this board when it comes to this kind of stuff, which is impressive considering how much of a jerk the rest of us can be 
I believe that there is so much sample variation in the game of baseball that it's just short of impossible to ever say with certainty that it is or isn't a factor. Add to that the number of different players involved and the potential for adjustment, and things become even more muddled.
Basically, it just rubs me the wrong way when people act like they're 100% certain of something that they have no possible way of being 100% certain of, so I had to say something 
I do think hammonds is quoting a bogus stat in this specific case, though 
Yeah I understand, and I actually enjoy arguing with you (versus a ton of other people on this board) because although you're not an advanced stats guy, you've kinda come to understand/respect it while still being... suspicious isn't the right word, but inquisitive and not blindly following advanced statistics.
In this case, I think the variation points to that exact thing - there are so many little details, that ultimately the runner on 3rd may have some significance, but it has as much as whether the batter feels hungry or tired or whatever - you get what I'm saying?
