Breakouts and Disappointments for 2010

[The Chief]

Yep, that is pretty pessimistic.  If Lannan was going to "get figured out," it would have happened by now.  If he has a bad season it is going to be more on him than anything.

Well if you listen to the fangraphs crowd, his success has never made any sense with the peripherals he has.  That's basically all I'm basing it on.  My intent was to pick the controversial picks, not the easy ones like Strasburg/breakout or Dunn's BA/disappointment

Why'd you delete your post JMU?  Now it looks like I'm talking to myself

[cmdterps44]

Dissapointment: 
Wang.  SPs don't recover from shoulder injuries.  He wasn't great to start with and now he'll try to make it back, get lit up, and disappear by years end. 

I know this is what you think but I agree with DP. Just commenting on your 'great to start with' comment. He was ace material for a good 3 years until his injury. I just hope he comes back as atleast 3 quarters of what he was and he'll still be at one of the top spots in our rotation.

[JMUalumni]

Well if you listen to the fangraphs crowd, his success has never made any sense with the peripherals he has.

Sorry, I was going to refine my post before someone quoted it (you quoted ultra fast!).  I like the people at fangraphs, but sometimes they are just talking out of their ass.  Peripherals are all good, but I think people have been finally realizing that peripherals doesn't mean you are a good or bad pitcher.  It is one way of predicating something.  Those of us that have watched Lannan over the years know that his success has been based off of his ability to locate pitches and keep the ball low, if he doesn't do that then he doesn't have success.  He year he seems to add more and more pitches to his arsenal and I just don't believe that three years after he has been in the league that people are going to start suddenly figuring him out.  If that was going to happen, it would have happened long ago.

In full disclosure, I have always liked the guy, probably why I jump to his defense.

[The Chief]

I agree.  I just wanted to make trouble

Breakout - sportsfan882/ASSCLOWN - he will call a record number of Nationals "bums" this year

Disappointment - sportsfan882/ASSCLOWN - now that he has a girlfriend, his post count for the season will fall back into the low 10,000's

[JMUalumni]

I agree.  I just wanted to make trouble

Haha, I just had to stand up for my boy.

[Potomac Cannons]

He might not recover, that's still to be determined, but the guy won 19 games in consecutive years and was absolutely dominating the next year before he got hurt.  He was the #1 guy in New York, for the Yankees.  A lot of very good pitchers have not been able to handle that pressure and he did.  If he recovers, he'll be a huge steal.

Dominating?  His K/9 was, at that point, a career high 5.12 (way below league average), his K/BB was 1.54, his WHIP was 1.32, his FIP 3.74 and his xFIP 4.20.  All of those, except the higher K/9 were right in line with his good but not great stats prior.  He never dominated anything.  He was a good pitcher on a great team who got a bunch of wins that he wouldn't get on most other teams.

[Lintyfresh85]

Ah, the "Win" argument.  His individual pitching numbers were good, never great, and his team pitching number (Wins) is meaningless when discussing how he pitched.  No Ks + no shoulder = no production from now on.

He was better than anything the Nats have ever had. I don't see how you can deny that.

[DPMOmaha]

Dominating?  His K/9 was, at that point, a career high 5.12 (way below league average), his K/BB was 1.54, his WHIP was 1.32, his FIP 3.74 and his xFIP 4.20.  All of those, except the higher K/9 were right in line with his good but not great stats prior.  He never dominated anything.  He was a good pitcher on a great team who got a bunch of wins that he wouldn't get on most other teams.

So, because he didn't strike out a lot of people he didn't dominate?  All I know, is that teams couldn't score on him.  Hitters can't drive the ball of him.  strikeouts don't dictate dominance.  Getting outs does.  He did that incredibly well before he got hurt.

[Potomac Cannons]

He was better than anything the Nats have ever had. I don't see how you can deny that.

At what point did I deny that?  He was a good pitcher.  He also had two injuries that have derailed him.  Pitchers simply don't recover to anywhere near prior form from shoulder injuries so he won't be what he was.  That makes him, at best, likely a league average pitcher.  A sinkerballer who doesn't strike people out is in trouble when he has foot problems and then shoulder problems.  I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't end the season on the 40 man roster.

[Potomac Cannons]

So, because he didn't strike out a lot of people he didn't dominate?  All I know, is that teams couldn't score on him.  Hitters can't drive the ball of him.  strikeouts don't dictate dominance.  Getting outs does.  He did that incredibly well before he got hurt.

Getting outs does dictate performance.  WHIP shows how many people get on base per inning while those outs are being recorded.  In his "dominant" 2008 he was tied for 44th among MLB starters.  FIP and xFIP determine how well pitchers do at getting batters out without needing the aid of the defense.  In his "dominant" 2008 Wang was 26th in FIP and tied for 42nd in xFIP.  Those are significant stats that measure how effectively a pitcher is getting outs.  He was good to above average in those areas.  He was never dominant.

[Lintyfresh85]

That's the whole point. None of the Nationals pitchers are very good either. If Wang comes back 75% of what he was... he's still better than anything that is currently starting. Thus, it'd be hard to call him a disappointment unless he's a massive failure this year.

[The Chief]

Would you guys like your own thread to discuss this?

[Lintyfresh85]

I don't think it needs one. It's debating the breakout/disappointment of a Nats player.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Pulling a SF eh?

BA is crud 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

JMU / Dunnkey - actually, the "Fangraphs crowd" has been saying righty groundball pitchers are systematically undervalued. 

P-Cannons - one thing Wang did ridiculously well before getting hurt was suppress homers, which comes with the hard sinker.  While normal pitchers can't control HR rates, guys like Wang, Lowe, and Webb could consistently turn in low home run rates due to their heavy sinkers. 

I'm not saying Wang will do that again.  There's justified skepticism that's reflected in his contract.  Maybe there is too much optimism about him, but it's not a bad dice roll.  If you have 400 innings from Lannan and Marquis, Stras and Zimmermann on the way, and a bunch of back end guys in the system, Wang (and Olsen) are the gambles you can and should make.

[JMUalumni]

JMU / Dunnkey - actually, the "Fangraphs crowd" has been saying righty groundball pitchers are systematically undervalued.

I'm not saying they don't value groundball guys, Jack Moore did a good piece on Lannan last year that was spot on.  The article in question predicting Lannan's demise in 2009 was written in 2008 and relied on peripheral stats.  The article was off and is a caution tale for relying on these stats to predict the future (I don't think that any stat can do that).  I love the site and read it almost everyday, I just don't agree with some of the stuff they write over there.

[Potomac Cannons]

That's the whole point. None of the Nationals pitchers are very good either. If Wang comes back 75% of what he was... he's still better than anything that is currently starting. Thus, it'd be hard to call him a disappointment unless he's a massive failure this year.

75% of Wang is likely a 1.5 WHIP.  It's not pretty.  He's a sinkerballer with a bad shoulder and he doesn't strike people out.  Lack of velocity, lack of K stuff, and lack of endurance are going to be big issues.  Wang at a 75% or slightly better level is not as good as Marquis, Lannan or Stammen right now. 

[Potomac Cannons]

P-Cannons - one thing Wang did ridiculously well before getting hurt was suppress homers, which comes with the hard sinker.  While normal pitchers can't control HR rates, guys like Wang, Lowe, and Webb could consistently turn in low home run rates due to their heavy sinkers. 

I'm not saying Wang will do that again.  There's justified skepticism that's reflected in his contract.  Maybe there is too much optimism about him, but it's not a bad dice roll.  If you have 400 innings from Lannan and Marquis, Stras and Zimmermann on the way, and a bunch of back end guys in the system, Wang (and Olsen) are the gambles you can and should make.

I agree with the gamble, especially at the price, but there's no reason to think that he'll be able to do that again.  Shoulder injuries destroy pitchers.  As much as TJ surgery is starting to be viewed as a positive, shoulders are still anathema and you can count on one hand the number of productive pitchers post shoulder surgery.

[Blueliner]

Ah, the "Win" argument.  His individual pitching numbers were good, never great, and his team pitching number (Wins) is meaningless when discussing how he pitched.  No Ks + no shoulder = no production from now on.

There have been plenty of pitchers who didn't have high K totals, but they won.  I bet you like Nolan Ryan.  Ever check out his WHIP?  Very high compared to Palmer, Seaver, and Jenkins.