Breakouts and Disappointments for 2010

[imref]

Breakouts:

- Zimmerman - right now he's a top 25 player, by the end of the season he'll be in the same range as Tulo, Wright, & Utley.
- Strasburg - the hype will be real, he'll win 8 games with around a 3 ERA and 150Ks
- Lannan - less pressure this year, more experience, potential to win 12-15 games
- Kennedy - he will turn out to be the best pickup of the off-season, .290, 12HR

Duds:
- Dunn - I'm wondering if last year's BA was a fluke and he's back to .247, 35 HR
- Capps - I just don't trust him yet.
- Teddy - he still won't win a race

[Lintyfresh85]

Breakout: Stammen, Detwiler, Bruney

Disappointment: Morgan, Desmond, Burnett

[The Chief]

You'd consider .250 and 35 homers a dud for Dunn?  That's basically his career line, so if that's what he does, they'd essentially be getting what they paid for in the first place (unless you're CatsEye)

I mean, I'd like to see him hit .280 for most of the season again too, but as long as he gets the walks and dingers, I'm not gonna freak out about it.

And don't forget the old adage about the difference between .200 and .300 being one hit a week, or whatever it is.

[NatsDad14]

- Zimmerman - right now he's a top 25 player, by the end of the season he'll be in the same range as Tulo, Wright, & Utley.

This statement is so dumb. Zimmerman has always been better Tulowitzki. At no point was Tulowitzki the better player except for maybe a short time in 2007. Zimmerman is already on Wright's range. He had the better season and looks like he has a brighter future. Utley is another level compared to Zimmerman. I hope that Zimmerman can reach him. If he does, he is a legitimate MVP candidate.

[Lintyfresh85]

I'd say its Zimm and Longoria for the best 3B in the game right now.

A healthy AROD is probably up there with them... but he might be a step slow now.

[PowerBoater69]

Breakout:
Stephen Strasburg - Though not a totally risky breakout prediction, every eye will be on every pitch he makes and he will not disappoint. As I have stated before in various places, Strasburg might very well be the Baseball Jesus and if so, he is going to make Mike Rizzo and his decision to keep him in the minors look like the "Baseball Pontius Pilate."

Disappointment:
Adam Dunn - The big donkey will swing big and miss big. He won't hit 40 home runs again this year, he'll continue to strike out plenty and if ST was any indication, he might very well miss some time if he continues to have back problems. Couple all this with the fact he will be absolutely atrocious at first base a la Dmitri Young and you have epic disappointment heading to Natstown.

I'll agree with this.  Although as pessimistic as I tend to be about the Nats I hate to predict a disappointment.  I do tend to think we have more guys who are likely to under perform than have break out years.

[imref]

You'd consider .250 and 35 homers a dud for Dunn?  That's basically his career line, so if that's what he does, they'd essentially be getting what they paid for in the first place (unless you're CatsEye)

I mean, I'd like to see him hit .280 for most of the season again too, but as long as he gets the walks and dingers, I'm not gonna freak out about it.

And don't forget the old adage about the difference between .200 and .300 being one hit a week, or whatever it is.

He hit 40 HRs a year for the last few years, and he hit .267 / 38 HR last year.  So if he drops to .247 / 35 HR then yes, that's a disappointment, especially in a contract year.

[imref]

I'd say its Zimm and Longoria for the best 3B in the game right now.

A healthy AROD is probably up there with them... but he might be a step slow now.

If you look at fantasy drafts, which only focus on offense, for 3B Zimm is going behind A-Rod, Longoria, Wright, and even Pablo Sandoval in some drafts.  My hope is that if he has another year like last year, he will be in the same discussion as A-Rod and Longoria.

[imref]

This statement is so dumb. Zimmerman has always been better Tulowitzki. At no point was Tulowitzki the better player except for maybe a short time in 2007. Zimmerman is already on Wright's range. He had the better season and looks like he has a brighter future. Utley is another level compared to Zimmerman. I hope that Zimmerman can reach him. If he does, he is a legitimate MVP candidate.

i'm talking strictly on offense.  Look at ESPN average fantasy drafts, Zimmerman is going 31, behind folks like Rollins, Cano, Kinsler, etc.

[Blueliner]

Breakout-Tyler Clippard- People may say he broke out last year.  But I think he becomes one of the best setup men in the NL this year.

Duds:  Strasburg- Nobody can live up to the hype this kid is getting.  I think he'll come up in July, pitch decent, 3.50 era and above, have some good K totals but will get hit a lot.

[houston-nat]

I'm going to go with Desmond as a disappointment in the hope that he proves me wrong. The guy is going to be a very, very streaky hitter.

His September game log...
First week: 10 for 17, .588
Next three weeks: 6 for 38, .158
Last week: 7 for 27, .259

His spring training has been similarly streaky. The guy's batting average was .300 just a few days ago and now it's down to the .270s. We'll get some bursts of promise from him, but we'll also get some weeks where we'll really clamor for Cristian Guzman to (temporarily) have his job back.

Breakouts? Gotta go with Clippard. I hope it comes true for Stammen, too, though I think Detwiler is a more likely breakout star if he can recover from his injury.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Would Detwiler out of the rotation be a breakout?

Relative to where he was going into last season, and if he became an elite set up guy, yes. 

[Potomac Cannons]

Breakout: 
Stammen.  He'll be out 2nd best SP at the end of the season. 
Desmond will break out into being an above average bat and good glove (who throws stuff away like Zim was doing for a while). 
Clippard will be our closer with Storen one of our set-up men by years end.

Dissapointment: 
Wang.  SPs don't recover from shoulder injuries.  He wasn't great to start with and now he'll try to make it back, get lit up, and disappear by years end. 
Catcher.  Pudge hasn't hit since 2004.  Flores may not play another meaningful game at this pace.  Wil Nieves is Wil Nieves.  Until/Unless Norris gets here and produces, or Bryce Harper is the real deal, we're screwed.

[NatsDad14]

At the end of the season, we won't be crapting on Adam Dunn's defense at 1B. That is my surprise pick.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I'm going to go with Desmond as a disappointment in the hope that he proves me wrong. The guy is going to be a very, very streaky hitter.

His September game log...
First week: 10 for 17, .588
Next three weeks: 6 for 38, .158
Last week: 7 for 27, .259

His spring training has been similarly streaky.

Honestly, I don't get why that's considered "streaky."  Almost all ML hitters have serious peaks and valleys like that throughout a season, no matter how good or bad they are.  In a given two-week period, you may have Hanley Ramirez in a serious slump or Nick Punto with a bat on fire.

I have to agree with what Blue said, though.  Desmond has yet to show he can hit everything thrown at him by ML pitchers.  We'll see.

[Potomac Cannons]

He hit 40 HRs a year for the last few years, and he hit .267 / 38 HR last year.  So if he drops to .247 / 35 HR then yes, that's a disappointment, especially in a contract year.

Who cares about BA?  His OPS is always around .900.  If he does that, drives in runs, draws walks and hits 35-40HR, who cares what his freaking BA is?  It's a useless stat that makes worthless dreck like Guzman look passable.

[Lintyfresh85]

Dissapointment: 
Wang.  SPs don't recover from shoulder injuries.  He wasn't great to start with and now he'll try to make it back, get lit up, and disappear by years end. 

Guys that win 19 games in back to back years are never that good.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Who cares about BA?  His OPS is always around .900.  If he does that, drives in runs, draws walks and hits 35-40HR, who cares what his freaking BA is?  It's a useless stat that makes worthless dreck like Guzman look passable.

BA is a sacred stat around here. :-x (I agree with you)

[The Chief]

BA is a sacred stat around here. :-x (I agree with you)

Pulling a SF eh?

[KnorrForYourMoney]

 






 

[JMUalumni]

Breakouts:  Roger Bernadina, Stras/Storen
Disappointments:  Matt Capps, Mike Morse

[The Chief]

Honestly, after 5 years of watching this team, I'm way too pessimistic to predict any breakouts and actually believe them, so I'll go the unpopular route and pick some really big disappointments:

Zimmerman - after a year last year, he'll come back down to earth.

Lannan - this is the year he finally gets figured out.

The Nationals - still finish under 70 wins.  I doubt they'll lose 100 again though, so you can call that my "breakout" prediction if you like.

Heresy, I know

I sincerely hope to be proven wrong on all counts.

[Potomac Cannons]

Guys that win 19 games in back to back years are never that good.

Ah, the "Win" argument.  His individual pitching numbers were good, never great, and his team pitching number (Wins) is meaningless when discussing how he pitched.  No Ks + no shoulder = no production from now on.

[DPMOmaha]

Dissapointment: 
Wang.  SPs don't recover from shoulder injuries.  He wasn't great to start with and now he'll try to make it back, get lit up, and disappear by years end. 

He might not recover, that's still to be determined, but the guy won 19 games in consecutive years and was absolutely dominating the next year before he got hurt.  He was the #1 guy in New York, for the Yankees.  A lot of very good pitchers have not been able to handle that pressure and he did.  If he recovers, he'll be a huge steal.

[The Chief]

Yep, that is pretty pessimistic.  If Lannan was going to "get figured out," it would have happened by now.  If he has a bad season it is going to be more on him than anything.

Well if you listen to the fangraphs crowd, his success has never made any sense with the peripherals he has.  That's basically all I'm basing it on.  My intent was to pick the controversial picks, not the easy ones like Strasburg/breakout or Dunn's BA/disappointment