Author Topic: Tex and the Nats... (Read 169409 times)

cmdterps44 · « **Reply #1550 on:** December 13, 2008, 04:21:49 pm »

Quote from: ACTAvation Energy on December 13, 2008, 04:20:48 pm

I'm probably the only person who would take Dunn + Hudson over Teixeira alone.

Id take both equally, its just I'm still not sure if we are actually going to look at that combo together.

MrMadison · « **Reply #1551 on:** December 13, 2008, 04:22:25 pm »

Quote from: cmdterps44 on December 13, 2008, 04:21:49 pm

Id take both equally, its just I'm still not sure if we are actually going to look at that combo together.

this.

ideally, I'd rather have Tex and Hudson though.

spidernat · « **Reply #1552 on:** December 13, 2008, 04:22:57 pm »

Quote from: tomterp on December 13, 2008, 04:13:59 pm

Nobody driving him in, and perhaps also he was getting pulled in late innings for pinch runners, so his on-base effort pads someone else's run total.

That may have been the case with the Reds. I'm pretty sure Patterson entered the game in his place late in games. His walk total sky-rocketed in Arizona but he didn't score at a better pace there so I'm not sure what to make of that.

KnorrForYourMoney · « **Reply #1553 on:** December 13, 2008, 04:27:47 pm »

Quote from: MrMadison on December 13, 2008, 04:22:25 pm

this.

ideally, I'd rather have Tex and Hudson though.

My fat ass would find a way to do backflips.

spidernat · « **Reply #1554 on:** December 13, 2008, 04:29:16 pm »

Quote from: ACTAvation Energy on December 13, 2008, 04:27:47 pm

My fat ass would find a way to do backflips.

I never thought of you as a fat dude.

blue911 · « **Reply #1555 on:** December 13, 2008, 04:29:50 pm »

Quote from: UMDNats on December 13, 2008, 04:21:29 pm

He's pretty slow, so he draws a walk and the manager decides to use a faster runner to try to score. I don't see a problem with it.

Dunn had 122 hits, 122 walks and HBP 7 times. Subtract the 40 home runs and he was on base 211 times and scored 39 runs. This isn't softball, there aren't curtesy runners.

spidernat · « **Reply #1556 on:** December 13, 2008, 04:30:59 pm »

Don't forget to include the number of times he probably reached base via error. That means that, apart from HR's, he scores runs approximately 18% of the time he actually reaches base.

MrMadison · « **Reply #1557 on:** December 13, 2008, 04:33:57 pm »

Quote from: blue911 on December 13, 2008, 04:29:50 pm

Dunn had 122 hits, 122 walks and HBP 7 times. Subtract the 40 home runs and he was on base 211 times and scored 39 runs. This isn't softball, there aren't curtesy runners.

and he's supposed to drive himself in from first or 2nd base, right?

i thought we already established that the Reds, they Suck.

blue911 · « **Reply #1558 on:** December 13, 2008, 04:41:33 pm »

Quote from: MrMadison on December 13, 2008, 04:33:57 pm

and he's supposed to drive himself in from first or 2nd base, right?

i thought we already established that the Reds, they Suck.

But we're no better. Of the 5 tools players are graded on, Dunn has one, Hudson has three.

KnorrForYourMoney · « **Reply #1559 on:** December 13, 2008, 04:52:05 pm »

Quote from: spidernat on December 13, 2008, 04:29:16 pm

I never thought of you as a fat dude.

I'm just slightly porky, but I used to be a pretty big dude - you're always a fatass at heart.

Dunn has scored and driven in over 450 runs over the past 5 seasons. Show me fifteen ML hitters who have done that over that same time and I'll never defend Dunn again.

spidernat · « **Reply #1560 on:** December 13, 2008, 04:58:05 pm »

For fun, I took some random players- Cristian Guzman, Ryan Zimmerman, Chipper Jones, Orlando Hudson, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Johnson (2006) and Dmitri Young (2007)- and figured out at what clip they scored runs other than the times they hit HR's. Most scored runs somewhere between 24 and 28%. Cabrera and Young were the lowest at around 24%, I believe Zimmerman and Jones were 25%, Jones and Hudson were around 28%. NJ came out to around 32% and Guzman 34%.

Considering that Dunn's number was roughly 18%, I think tomterp is correct and some of his runs went to players who came in to pinch run for him late in games. Corey Pattrson's percentage was 42 so I think that may reflect tomterp's suggestion.

blue911 · « **Reply #1561 on:** December 13, 2008, 05:03:24 pm »

Quote from: spidernat on December 13, 2008, 04:58:05 pm

For fun, I took some random players- Cristian Guzman, Ryan Zimmerman, Chipper Jones, Orlando Hudson, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Johnson (2006) and Dmitri Young (2007)- and figured out at what clip they scored runs other than the times they hit HR's. Most scored runs somewhere between 24 and 28%. Cabrera and Young were the lowest at around 24%, I believe Zimmerman and Jones were 25%, Jones and Hudson were around 28%. NJ came out to around 32% and Guzman 34%. Considering that Dunn's number was roughly 18%, I think tomterp is correct and some of his runs went to players who came in to pinch run for him late in games. Corey Pattrson's percentage was 42 so I think that may reflect tomterp's suggestion.

The problem with the Patterson theory is that he only scored 3 runs from the 4 & 5 batting position (Dunn's primary spots).

spidernat · « **Reply #1562 on:** December 13, 2008, 05:11:30 pm »

Quote from: blue911 on December 13, 2008, 05:03:24 pm

The problem with the Patterson theory is that he only scored 3 runs from the 4 & 5 batting position (Dunn's primary spots).

Does that count runs he scored as a pinch runner? Also he wasn't the only one who subbed for Dunn late in games for speed in Cincinnati and Arizona.

KnorrForYourMoney · « **Reply #1563 on:** December 13, 2008, 05:20:24 pm »

Runs per game of some randomly selected top hitters since 2004:

Chipper Jones: 0.667
Carlos Beltran: 0.715
Mark Teixeira: 0.659
Aramis Ramirez: 0.613
Adam Dunn: 0.621

Adam Dunn is within a respectable distance of some of the best hitters in the game. This notion that he doesn't score enough runs should be put to rest.

blue911 · « **Reply #1564 on:** December 13, 2008, 05:25:57 pm »

Quote from: spidernat on December 13, 2008, 05:11:30 pm

Does that count runs he scored as a pinch runner? Also he wasn't the only one who subbed for Dunn late in games for speed in Cincinnati and Arizona.

They don't keep stats for pinch runners. Without getting anal, I'm trying to piece together a better picture. Dunn primarily hit 5th but hit 4th almost 200 times. Ryan Freel scored twice from the #5 spot without ever getting an at bat there. I think it's safe to say he was a pinch runner. But I can't find Jerry Hairston or Norris Hopper or Chris Dickerson or any other likely pinch runner that have runs scored from the 4 or 5 spot.

tomterp · « **Reply #1565 on:** December 13, 2008, 05:30:52 pm »

Quote from: blue911 on December 13, 2008, 05:25:57 pm

Ryan Freel scored twice from the #5 spot without ever getting an at bat there.

He could have walked or been hit by pitch, neither of which count as at-bats.

spidernat · « **Reply #1566 on:** December 13, 2008, 05:32:13 pm »

Quote from: blue911 on December 13, 2008, 05:25:57 pm

They don't keep stats for pinch runners. Without getting anal,

I'm not even looking at it like that. I see it as just discussing baseball.

tomterp · « **Reply #1567 on:** December 13, 2008, 05:34:23 pm »

Dunn is very slow on the basepaths, no question about it, but his on-base % is far more useful than his slow running is a negative, that would be my guess.

blue911 · « **Reply #1568 on:** December 13, 2008, 05:36:51 pm »

Quote from: tomterp on December 13, 2008, 05:30:52 pm

He could have walked or been hit by pitch, neither of which count as at-bats.

Plate plate appearance, I mean plate appearance. Arrggh.

tomterp · « **Reply #1569 on:** December 13, 2008, 05:42:40 pm »

Quote from: blue911 on December 13, 2008, 05:36:51 pm

Plate plate appearance, I mean plate appearance. Arrggh.

Well, bust my buttons! Why didn't you say that in the first place? That's a horse of a different color! Come on in!

hammondsnats · « **Reply #1570 on:** December 13, 2008, 05:49:51 pm »

FWIW ... MLBTR linked a story posted on Central Maine Sports Blog regarding an e-mail conversation between the site and Jerry Crasnick (about Derek Lowe).

If you recall, CMSB posted a story the other day saying they have sources that say Mark Teixeira will be a National.

Jus throwing it out there.

spidernat · « **Reply #1571 on:** December 13, 2008, 05:53:33 pm »

I think they also said something that turned out to be complete bullcrap.

hammondsnats · « **Reply #1572 on:** December 13, 2008, 06:34:37 pm »

Quote from: spidernat on December 13, 2008, 05:53:33 pm

I think they also said something that turned out to be complete bullcrap.

they said nats would lose their top draft picks, but they came back and clarified/corrected it.

like i said i was just sharing it with everyone, b/c it seems they have somewhat of credibility if they had breaking news from jerry cransick.

hammondsnats · « **Reply #1573 on:** December 13, 2008, 06:45:37 pm »

over @ bpg a poster said he talked to tim kurkjian last night who mentioned we still have the highest bid in for teixeira, but that he thought we will land dunn and hudson (o-dog).

blue911 · « **Reply #1574 on:** December 13, 2008, 06:47:43 pm »

Quote from: tomterp on December 13, 2008, 05:42:40 pm

Well, bust my buttons! Why didn't you say that in the first place? That's a horse of a different color! Come on in!

Sorry, It was games. 2 games as the #5 hitter. No PA. 2 Runs.