Tex and the Nats...

[HalfSmokes]

I like getting the numbers. Since Tom pays for the service, it's nice to know what the statheads think. Ignoring statistical trends is a good way of overpaying for a player that shows all the historical evidence of a decline (cough Adam Dunn cough).

Most guys who are old enough to reach free agency are in decline. They question is what kind of decline; Manny Ramirez has been in decline for years, but it has been slow and he is still one of the best hitters in baseball; on the other hand, certain guys fall off a cliff (konerko comes to mind).

[spidernat]

Teixeira, 28, could justify signing with the Nationals by saying he wanted to be the face of an emerging franchise in the nation's capital.

We're in desperate need of a face lift considering our face usually looks like this for the first 1/3 of the season.

[cmdterps44]

I like getting the numbers. Since Tom pays for the service, it's nice to know what the statheads think. Ignoring statistical trends is a good way of overpaying for a player that shows all the historical evidence of a decline (cough Adam Dunn cough).

I agree here too. I'm always in between on both subjects. Like i usually go for the base stats you find on MLB and comparing those, but its always nice to see in depth with the VORP and the trends you mentioned, but whenever im comparing i usually just stick to the basics.

[cmdterps44]

We're in desperate need of a face lift considering our face usually looks like this for the first 1/3 of the season.

Our face usually looks like that by the end of April

[spidernat]

I was making fun of spidernat there, but you vote for whomever you please - there was hilarious list of write-in votes from Florida that I'll post in Uncensored.

How were you making fun of me? I think you have me confused with some of the board's idiotlogues.

[hammondsnats]

Our face usually looks like that by the end of April March

Fixed.

[HalfSmokes]

For those of you who want a SABR comparision without paying, fangraphs is free and has most non-propriatary stats

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=319&playerid2=1281&playerid3=&position=OF&page=0&type=full

[PANatsFan]

How were you making fun of me? I think you have me confused with some of the board's idiotlogues.

You think I would never find anything credible from fox and boycott Family Guy and NFC football

[tomterp]

Do a WARP-1 on Dunn & Teixeira,please. Also do you have access to stats that show how many of each players hits drove in a run?

I'll work on this in a day or so.  It took me quite a while to extract the VORP numbers, and I'm trying to multi-task.

[PANatsFan]

For those of you who want a SABR comparision without paying, fangraphs is free and has most non-propriatary stats

http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=319&playerid2=1281&playerid3=&position=OF&page=0&type=full

Dunn has absurd power, and bad luck in balls in play (or he's slow ) -  Tex doesn't strike out - meaning he hits hard liners or groundouts or popups - Tex gets more hits, but a lot of walks - Dunn walks an insane amount of time - he just grinds the hell out of pitchers - either would be great - Dunn will have a better contract (there's no way Tex will give us mrmadison's magic "out" clause after 5 years) - he will get 10/5 protection and we will be stuck

[DPMOmaha]

I have wasted so much time at work following this thread today.  Fun times!

[tomterp]

I like getting the numbers. Since Tom pays for the service, it's nice to know what the statheads think. Ignoring statistical trends is a good way of overpaying for a player that shows all the historical evidence of a decline (cough Adam Dunn cough).

I put the stats out there so people can consider them, not to imply that they are in any way a final verdict. 

[blue911]

I'll work on this in a day or so.  It took me quite a while to extract the VORP numbers, and I'm trying to multi-task.

Thanks.

[spidernat]

You think I would never find anything credible from fox and boycott Family Guy and NFC football

  I had forgotten about that. No wonder you don't watch Redskins games. You're waiting for them to be moved to the AFC.

Dunn will have a better contract (there's no way Tex will give us mrmadison's magic "out" clause after 5 years) - he will get 10/5 protection and we will be stuck

There is a chance that Teixeira's contract won't be an albatross in 10 years. He could still be a productive player (in his late 30's he'll still be better than the crap we have now that can't even stay healthy enough to actually play) and contracts may balloon to where his deal won't be that much, in relation to other players. Plus, I read somewhere that Obama's election is the antepenultimate event to usher in the apocalypse so that contract probably won't matter in 6 years so let's win it while there's time. 

[PANatsFan]

  I had forgotten about that. No wonder you don't watch Redskins games. You're waiting for them to be moved to the AFC.

I would watch Redskin games even on Fox Business Channel, even if they replaced the goofy transformer with Neil Cavuto

[PatsNats28]

AFC > NFC, but the NFC has been much better this year.

[blue911]

I put the stats out there so people can consider them, not to imply that they are in any way a final verdict. 

I've always maintained that stats have value. But you have to be careful of which stats you use and how you weigh them. I'd look at Ralph Kiner and Rocky Colavito as two players with similar offensive skill sets as Adam Dunn. Both were finished by age 32. Players with long upper cut swings tend to die early.

[The Chief]

AFC > NFC, but the NFC has been much better this year.

That and the AL vs. NL debate is so tired and obviously cyclical on a 10-15 year rotation.  I don't know why people even bother discussing these things.

Sorry, pet peeve.

Random thought - Giants vs. Titans would make for a snicker-worthy Superbowl.

[HalfSmokes]

Here's BP's guess on Dunn's attrition/collaspe

Attrition/Breakout/Drop
2008 16% 0% 18%
2009 24% 6% 24%
2010 33% 12% 20%
2011 38% 15% 13%
2012 39% 26% 14%
2013 56% 36% 8%
2014 68% 50% 6%


Attrition Rate is the percent chance that a hitter's plate appearances or a pitcher's opposing batters faced will decrease by at least 50% relative to his Baseline playing time forecast. Although it is generally a good indicator of the risk of injury, Attrition Rate will also capture seasons in which his playing time decreases due to poor performance or managerial decisions.

Breakout Rate is the percent chance that a hitter's EqR/27 or a pitcher's EqERA will improve by at least 20% relative to the weighted average of his EqR/27 in his three previous seasons of performance. High breakout rates are indicative of upside risk.

Breakout rates measure change relative to a player's previously-established level of performance. For this reason, a high Breakout score can create a falsely optimistic picture for a player who has a very poor performance record. It is far easier for a player with a baseline of 40 EqR per season to improve upon that figure by 20% than it is for a player with a baseline of 100 EQR per season; as a result, his Breakout score is likely to be higher


Drop Rate is the percent chance that a player will not receive any major league plate appearances in a given season, based on comparables who disappear from the dataset entirely. Because of the conventions PECOTA uses in selecting comparables, the Drop Rate is always assumed to be zero for the current year, but it is an important consideration in a hitter's Five-Year Forecast.

[HalfSmokes]

And here is Tex's

2008 7% 0% 15%
2009 14% 2% 13%
2010 20% 2% 10%
2011 23% 9% 15%
2012 26% 15% 5%
2013 34% 24% 4%
2014 41% 30% 4%

[PatsNats28]

That and the AL vs. NL debate is so tired and obviously cyclical on a 10-15 year rotation.  I don't know why people even bother discussing these things.

Sorry, pet peeve.

Random thought - Giants vs. Titans would make for a snicker-worthy Superbowl.

I'd call the Titans in that SB despite everyone else around me calling the Giants. It's an intuition thing.

Are there any people here who know a lot about football? (not just Skins) I personally am a football fan first, baseball fan second. I know so much more about football than baseball.

[blue911]

That and the AL vs. NL debate is so tired and obviously cyclical on a 10-15 year rotation.  I don't know why people even bother discussing these things.

Sorry, pet peeve.

There isn't a scenario in pro sports as blantantly biased as making the NL play with a DH.

[hammondsnats]

haha as of 5:05 we've had over 4200 views of this thread and the topics while 96 percent have stayed on teixeira have shifted in any and every direction. 

[sportsfan882]

I'd call the Titans in that SB despite everyone else around me calling the Giants. It's an intuition thing.

Are there any people here who know a lot about football? (not just Skins) I personally am a football fan first, baseball fan second. I know so much more about football than baseball.

Yep, there are a lot of big football fans on the board. I also prefer NFL to any other sport in general but in terms of following my teams I think the Nats are close to my favorite.

[PatsNats28]

Yep, there are a lot of big football fans on the board. I also prefer NFL to any other sport in general but in terms of following my teams I think the Nats are close to my favorite.

Mine is the Patriots, second Nationals, third Redskins probably.