Longshots: Soto to the Nats in 2025? Avengers Beat Thanos?

[Mattionals]

Its still a steal but he is pretty beholden to a bad LF. Not like Acuna who could be a gold glove caliber outfielder, if he wanted.

Or if his body cooperated.

[Slateman]

https://fansided.com/posts/juan-soto-puts-brian-cashman-in-line-of-fire-with-latest-free-agency-comment/partners/40030?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR32TSv7VibzK2teWI5ueIRLUvKoPOmrr3nCmcGF21cpPQTsVhBzvY6fnDU_aem_At3Mjj5soXLSH6ZJKu5J2g

Its pure gossip, but writer offers  12/650

12/650 would be a 374 million take home after New York taxes. 12/600 would be about the same take home with Virginia taxes. Stretch that to 13 years and it matches the AAV for Ohtani

[IanRubbish]

12/650 would be a 374 million take home after New York taxes. 12/600 would be about the same take home with Virginia taxes. Stretch that to 13 years and it matches the AAV for Ohtani

Boras pays California taxes, so state taxes are not going to be a factor, he cares deeply about his take and isn't going to sacrifice $50 million.  That would also set a lower threshold for the rest of the market, which would impact other players lower down the talent list.

[nobleisthyname]

He's only put up a .950 OPS twice in his career excluding the COVID year.  He doesn't have the power to do that consistently.

His career OPS is .959...

[IanRubbish]

His career OPS is .959...

Right, elevated by this season, his walk year, and 2021.  But with only two seasons above .950, you can't put him down for that level of OPS every year.  Mean vs. Median.

[Natsinpwc]

Right, elevated by this season, his walk year, and 2021.  But with only two seasons above .950, you can't put him down for that level of OPS every year.  Mean vs. Median.

LOL. He’s just reaching his prime years and should improve as a hitter. There just aren’t many who reach free agency that young. He will cash in big time and be productive. He had a .949 OPS in 2019 which obviously you discount because it’s .001 below your abitrary line. And .930 last year.  He’s a generational talent and no amount of cherry picked arguments from you. He has had 6 of his 7 years with an OPS above .900. Who else has done that?  The one year below was 2022.

[IanRubbish]

LOL. He’s just reaching his prime years and should improve as a hitter. There just aren’t many who reach free agency that young. He will cash in big time and be productive. He had a .949 OPS in 2019 which obviously you discount because it’s .001 below your abitrary line. And .930 last year.  He’s a generational talent and no amount of cherry picked arguments from you. He has had 6 of his 7 years with an OPS above .900. Who else has done that?  The one year below was 2022.

Now you're just making things up, Slate said he's reliably .950.  But you seem surprised by this fact, and are now splitting hairs over exact numbers when the truth remains you cannot rely on him for .950 every year.  He's also got over 3,000 MLB PAs and is not set to improve or become the next Aaron Judge in terms of power.  Great hitter, but not worth what Boras will want for him.  And definitely not coming back to DC either way.

[Natsinpwc]

Now you're just making things up, Slate said he's reliably .950.  But you seem surprised by this fact, and are now splitting hairs over exact numbers when the truth remains you cannot rely on him for .950 every year.  He's also got over 3,000 MLB PAs and is not set to improve or become the next Aaron Judge in terms of power.  Great hitter, but not worth what Boras will want for him.  And definitely not coming back to DC either way.

He’s met or exceeded .949 3 of his 7 years. And another was .930. Just stop it.

Why does baseball reference and fangraphs use averages and not medians?  Send a note to them and we will stop using averages when they switch.

[Slateman]

Or if his body cooperated.

Yea, the knees going didnt help. But Acuna was less than committed to defense even before that. Dude has (had?) speed for days and a rocket arm, but has never been anything more than middling in RF.

[Natsinpwc]

BTW. Soto’s median OPS is .949. Not significantly below his average.

[imref]

Passan says the floor on a Soto contract will be $500 million and that it will come down to the Yankees vs the Mets. He argues that if the Yankees win the WS they will pay whatever it takes to keep Soto.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/41001828/mlb-2024-2025-early-free-agency-preview-updates-intel-passan-soto-burnes-sasaki-alonso

[GNatsNoMore]

Svrluga writes in the Post that Nats should try to bring back Soto.  He says it will cost between $500 and $600 million probably, but that it would "be smart from baseball and financial standpoints" to sign him again.

He fantasizes about this potential 2025 lineup:

1. CJ Abrams — SS
2. Juan Soto — DH
3. James Wood — LF
4. Free agent — 1B/3B
5. Luis García Jr. — 2B
6. Dylan Crews — RF
7. Ildemaro Vargas/José Tena/Brady House — 3B
8. Keibert Ruiz/Drew Millas — C
9. Jacob Young — CF

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/08/26/juan-soto-washington-nationals-free-agent/

And he quotes Soto:
“Right now I’m playing for the Yankees,” Soto said Monday afternoon. “I’m happy where I’m at. And we’ll see what happens in free agency.”

“Everything that I remember from these fans is positive things,” said Soto, who tipped his helmet to those fans as they roared before his first at-bat. “I was thankful for them. They show me the whole love that they have for me, and they made me who I am right now.”

[Slateman]

Yea, I dont see any scenario where Soto agrees to be a DH. And you'd have to trade some decent parts to get the pitching where you'd want it

[imref]

If you sign Soto, it's as a 1B (he has been taking practice reps at 1B in NY). That is a heavy LH lineup at the top.

[imref]

So say we did sign Soto? Does he play RF with Crews in CF, putting your best defensive CF on the bench, or does he accept a move to 1B? Has anyone heard if he'd be open to playing 1B?

[Five Banners]

So say we did sign Soto? Does he play RF with Crews in CF, putting your best defensive CF on the bench, or does he accept a move to 1B? Has anyone heard if he'd be open to playing 1B?

Thought I read that he was taking practice reps there currently

[Slateman]

https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-free-agency-discussion?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share

Footer: The Nationals angle is fascinating. At first glance, it would seem like a longshot that he’d return to his original team. But then you really look at the way the Nats are set up, and it appears they’re entering another window of winning. That would seem enticing to Soto, who loved his time there and has, at least publicly, had only nice things to say about the Nats franchise. Is there anything there? What is the best argument in their favor?

[raleighnat]

Seems to me that the Nats could just offer more than anybody else and sign him.  If they were smart they’d do it.  Historic opportunity. 

[rileyn]

We need to stop this. As long as the Lerners are the owners, unless Juan accepts a major discount, we are not going to spend what it will take.