In honor of his return to DC tonight, what does a Soto contract look like and could the Nationals have an advantage.
To walk through this, let's make some assumptions. The first is that Boras and Soto will want to set some records, both in overall contract and AAV. Ohtani's 700 million for 10 years of play is untouchable, but if you take the numbers that the league evaluates it as with deferrals, its much more manageable. For luxury tax purposes, Ohtani's deal is 10 years, 460 million (46 million AAV). So the first assumption is that Boras/Soto are seeking a contract that is in excess of 46 million AAV and 460 million dollars.
Ohtani got to 700 million due to a crap ton of deferred money. I suspect Ohtani was willing to do this for a couple reasons. The first is that he makes a ton of money on promotional and endorsement deals. Apparently, he made like $65 million last year. He can afford to defer a lot of money. I also am betting that somehow, there are better tax implications for not living in California when the deal is done. Then again, if he moves back to Japan, probably not. In the offers to Soto when he was in DC, there were no deferrals. We didn't hear anything from the Padres on their negotiations. For our second assumption, we will assume minimal deferrals, if any. To be honest, deferred money gives the Nationals more of an advantage in negotiations, IMO.
Third assumption: Soto is not fundamentally opposed to coming back to DC. I don't know if this is true, but he seemed to be genuinely hurt that he got traded. He is having a career year in NY, but he won a World Series here. I assume that if the money can be right, he's willing to come back to DC.
Another aspect of the contract negotiations is taxes. Sounds silly but apparently, these guys have money people that keep them abreast of taxes. New York (either the Yankees or the Mets) seem like the front runners to sign Soto. The Giants and the Dodgers are also in the mix. DC has an agreement with Maryland and Virginia that people who work in the city pay taxes to either state if they reside there. When Soto was a National, he lived in Arlington, VA. So its reasoable to assume he would choose Virginia if he were to sign with the Nationals (after all, who in the right mind would live in Maryland if they had a choice
) The tax difference between Virginia and New York is about 7-8 percent. Between Virginia and California, its like 12%. Final assumption: The Nationals money will go a bit further than New York's or a California-based team.
Edit: The Lerners are willing to substantially add payroll and The Lerners view next year's payroll at about 75 million, per my breakdown:
https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=41413.msg2333860#msg2333860So with that, the Nationals could offer something like 12 years, 565 million, which would have the same after tax take home of the Mets offering a 600 million dollar deal and a California based team offering close to 700 million. At 12 years, it puts the AAV at 47 million AAV, which breaks Ohtani's record by a million. And maybe he's willing to take some deferred money to get to the 600 million dollar threshold. The Nats could even get creative and add some opt outs after a certain amount of time (like, say his age 29 or 30 season).
