Willy Taveras a Nat?

[natsfan4evr]

LOS ANGELES — The Rockies' center field position sits at the epicenter of activity. Ryan Spilborghs is going out on a rehab assignment, Scott Podsednik is coming back Friday, Dexter Fowler is returning home soon from Beijing and Willy Taveras could be going to a new team next season.

The depth provides adequate explanation of why the Rockies made Taveras available at the trading deadline, according to opposing executives. The Washington Nationals have interest and could become a fit this offseason if they move Lastings Milledge out of a center field, according to a major league source.

"I would like to be here, but I don't know what's going to happen," Taveras said last week when asked about his future.

Rockies manager Clint Hurdle and Taveras butted heads over the outfielder's playing time earlier this season. Taveras, hitting .261 with a team-record 58 stolen bases, got hot offensively, keeping his starting center-field job in June after it was declared that Spilborghs would replace him.

There was some trade interest in Taveras last month, but the Rockies were asking for a young outfielder with less than three years' experience in return. Taveras is in line to make $4 million in arbitration next season, another factor that could lead the Rockies to turn to Spilborghs or Fowler.

Spilborghs should return to the big leagues when rosters expand Sept. 1 after regaining his timing following a 37-game absence with a strained left oblique.

The switch-hitting Fowler, 22, was batting .337 with nine home runs in Double-A before joining the Olympic team. Fowler and reliever Casey Weathers are the most anticipated call-ups.

http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_10259186

He has no power, but speed. I don't know about this. Do we really need another powerless guy in the lineup?

[blue911]

Hurdle sat him because of "lack of effort".

"Lack of effort" as described by Pictionary

[sportsfan882]

No to Taveras.

[houston-nat]

Fairly good player. But we don't need fairly good anymore. We have plenty of that.

[The Chief]

If he were cheap, and we were pursuing him as a backup, sure.  at 4 million dollars and a probable starter, no way.

[Dave B]

When I see guys with lots of stolen bases I like to add the stolen bases to his total bases to get a new slugging percentage, then subtract caught stealing from his OBP, and make a new OPS.

Taveras OPS goes from .621 to .753 under such a scenario.  That is not a bad OPS for an adequate CF is it?  My OPSness is all whacked out since the Nats blow at OPS.

Is this not a valid calculation? I can see how it doesnt produce runs like OPS is supposed to indicate because he isnt hitting the ball far to drive in other players from 1st, but it doesnt seem like it would diminish the OPS/production correlation much.

I know we have been duped by speed guys before, but a guy who could steal 90 bases at a 90% success rate is a whole new level of speed than we have been looking at in guys like Nook and Watson.

I dont know how much I like Milledge, Taveras, Dukes in the OF.  I think we need more power out of the corners. Who knows though, maybe Milledge has turned a corner regarding power recently though.

That is a pretty speedy outfield. Then throw in one of Bonafacio or Hernadez

[JMUalumni]

Even if you translate Taveras' OPS to include stolen bases, the number is still nothing but average at best.  Adding the  stolen bases overvalues the value of slugging percentage.  Various metrics have placed numbers alongside stolen bases to factor it into the worth of a batter, but most have the stolen base as significantly less meaningful to run production (maybe multiplying stolen bases by something like .5 or .6 would even it out).  For a CF, I would prefer to have an OPS that approached or was greater than .800.

[DPMOmaha]

What's his k/bb ratio?

[Dave B]

Even if you translate Taveras' OPS to include stolen bases, the number is still nothing but average at best.  Adding the  stolen bases overvalues the value of slugging percentage.  Various metrics have placed numbers alongside stolen bases to factor it into the worth of a batter, but most have the stolen base as significantly less meaningful to run production (maybe multiplying stolen bases by something like .5 or .6 would even it out).  For a CF, I would prefer to have an OPS that approached or was greater than .800.

I know it would be average. What I'd give for average right now. I think .5 or .6 is a little low. Maybe .8

[Dave B]

What's his k/bb ratio?

about 2

[DPMOmaha]

And he's been around a few years so he probably won't improve that much.  He makes things happen when he gets on though.

Realistically, are we going to be in contention next year?  Probably not.  If we could bring him for a year, maybe two at most, lock down center and be a fairly capable leadoff guy allowing Bonifacio to learn in the 7 or 8 hole while not having the pressure of having to get on to start things up for the top of the lineup, that could pay dividends down the road.  We're still a learning year or two away in all likelyhood. 

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Equivalent average is usually the best metric to measure the overall value of a base-stealer like Taveras.  It takes SB totals and percentages into account.

Taveras registers as a pitiful .244 this year.

For some perspective, Lastings Milledge is at .259 right now.

I'll pass on Taveras.  This is another reason I can't stand JimBo.  He has such a hard-on for these "toolsy" players like Taveras rather than guys with actual strike zone recognition.

[JMUalumni]

I know it would be average. What I'd give for average right now. I think .5 or .6 is a little low. Maybe .8

It is a little low, but that is to compensate for not considering CS.  If you factor in SB, then you also must consider the amount of times they caught.  Most statisticians will agree that anything under a 75% success rate will end up being detrimental to the team.  Therefore you would have to consider CS as a negative value which would not be accurate if plugged into a formula that was meant to measure SLG%.  The .5-.6 number was estimating that a caught stealing is detrimental to about .25-.35 (actual value of SB in most formulas is .85).

[BBQ]

Is there any room in our OF? N-O

[PANatsFan]

He's horrible. No.

[Dave B]

It is a little low, but that is to compensate for not considering CS.  If you factor in SB, then you also must consider the amount of times they caught.  Most statisticians will agree that anything under a 75% success rate will end up being detrimental to the team.  Therefore you would have to consider CS as a negative value which would not be accurate if plugged into a formula that was meant to measure SLG%.  The .5-.6 number was estimating that a caught stealing is detrimental to about .25-.35 (actual value of SB in most formulas is .85).

i took caught stealing out of OBP which is probably extra harsh because he could have hit a singe to drive in a run then gotten caught.  his success rate is over 90%

[UMDNats]

Can we please, for once, have interest in/acquire a prospect who has a good OPS, draws walks, and hits for power? Please? Enough with the fast-but-no-walking-ability-and-can't-hit-a-home-run-to-save-their life players

[Obed_Marsh]

Why would he want to play for us? Unless he has family in DC or Baltimore I don't see it.

Why would we give up anything of value for him?

It does sounds like the kind of bone headed move Bowden would make. It sometimes  seems like all we care about are pitchers and speedy plus defenders

[blue911]

When I see guys with lots of stolen bases I like to add the stolen bases to his total bases to get a new slugging percentage, then subtract caught stealing from his OBP, and make a new OPS.

Taveras OPS goes from .621 to .753 under such a scenario.  That is not a bad OPS for an adequate CF is it?  My OPSness is all whacked out since the Nats blow at OPS.

Is this not a valid calculation? I can see how it doesnt produce runs like OPS is supposed to indicate because he isnt hitting the ball far to drive in other players from 1st, but it doesnt seem like it would diminish the OPS/production correlation much.

I know we have been duped by speed guys before, but a guy who could steal 90 bases at a 90% success rate is a whole new level of speed than we have been looking at in guys like Nook and Watson.

I dont know how much I like Milledge, Taveras, Dukes in the OF.  I think we need more power out of the corners. Who knows though, maybe Milledge has turned a corner regarding power recently though.

That is a pretty speedy outfield. Then throw in one of Bonafacio or Hernadez

Why not just look at his RC27? SB & CS are factored into the equation.

[Dave B]

Can we please, for once, have interest in/acquire a prospect who has a good OPS, draws walks, and hits for power? Please?

I'm sure there is interest, but good luck getting one without giving up a lot.  I suppose interest in Taveras (if real) indicates a possible lack of resources to be spent in the offseason.

[Dave B]

Why not just look at his RC27? SB & CS are factored into the equation.

Oh. Where do you get those stats?

[PANatsFan]

Why would he want to play for us? Unless he has family in DC or Baltimore I don't see it.

Why would we give up anything of value for him?

It does sounds like the kind of bone headed move Bowden woule make. It ssometime eems like all we care aboutare pitchers and speedy plus defenders

Bowden has wanted Taveras for a long time. He gets a crush on a player and then won't give up. Nook Logan was the same situation.

[blue911]

Oh. Where do you get those stats?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/

They are in a players "Special Batting" section, they call them RC/G.

ESPN list them in the Player batting section in the Sabermetric option, in the Team section they are in the expanded.


You should download Kenz toolbar if you haven't already.

[PANatsFan]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/

They are in a players "Special Batting" section, they call them RC/G.

ESPN list them in the Player batting section in the Sabermetric option, in the Team section they are in the expanded.


You should download Kenz toolbar if you haven't already.

Thanks for the pointers. I thought you had to pay for stats like that.

[blue911]

Thanks for the pointers. I thought you had to pay for stats like that.

I think it's VORP & PECOTA that are "pay stats".